Risk Analysis: 1st(v. 2. Computational Studies)

Effective risk management and the mitigation of possible hazards have become high priorities for many of today's organisations, due both to the complexity of modern systems and the increased potential for disasters on a world-wide scale. The development of computational methods and the ability to model systems more precisely now enables hazards to be quantified, their effects to be simulated and risk analysis to be pursued with greater accuracy. These advances are of particular relevance to environmental issues where the risks involved are increasingly seen as sustainable. This book contains many of the papers presented at the International Conference on Computer Simulation in Risk Analysis and Hazard Mitigation held in Valencia, Spain in October 1998. The meeting was concerned with all aspects of these two topics associated with both material and anthropogenic hazards, while strategic issues related to suitable development and efficient use of resources were also discussed. The contributions featured are divided under the following headings: Simulation of Natural Hazards; Man-Made Hazards; Hazard Prevention; Emergency Response; Policy Planning and Social and Economic Issues; and Estimation of Risk and Risk Modelling.

Table of Contents:
SECTION 1: SIMULATION OF NATURAL HAZARDS European desertification risk; Effect of forest fire intensity in the evolution of some soil chemical properties; Source and dispersion simulation of sour gas in an offshore complex of the Sonda de Campeche; Methods for environemental degradation diagnosis in watersheds: its application to the basin of source, Corto, province of Buenos Aires, Argentina. SECTION 2: MAN-MADE HAZARDS Computer-aided risk assessment in problems of groundwater contamination; Environmental risk analysis for telecommunication networks; Hydrochemistry on a waste disposal area of sand mining activities at Analandia, Sao Paulo, Brazil,and their implications on the mobilization of uranium; Xenobiotics in food II - health risks of xenobiotics in alcoholic beverages. SECTION 3: HAZARD PREVENTION The Umbria (Central Italy) earthquake series of September 26, 1997; Two new methodologies for the hazard ranking of polluted sites: the CHARSY (C.r.a. Hazard Ranking System) and the RER methods; Assessment of flood risks in polders along the Dutch lakes; The safe ship control with minimum risk of collision; Floods, geodynamic environmentand human intervention the case of Corinth (Greece). SECTION 4: EMERGENCY RESPONSE An evaluation of emergency preparedness for hazardous materials transport; Earthquake emergency response scenario simulator; A proposal for earthquake emergency planning of Rhodos municipality (Greece). SECTION 5: POLICY PLANNING AND SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC ISSUES Analyzing timber-price uncertainty in forest planning; A method to evaluate underground water pollution vulnerability for environmental impact assessment and land use planning; The UN convention to combat desertification an example for global risk management. SECTION 6: ESTIMATION OF RISK AND RISK MODELLING Quantifying uncertainty in human health risk assessment using probabilistic techniques; Risk analysis of near-surface vapour cloud explosion based on its fluid dynamics consequences; A seismic source model with temporal dependence of large earthquake occurrence for probalistic seismic hazard analysis in Japan; Innovation in earthquake risk assessment; A simplified dynamic model to calculate floods;Integration of physical simulation models in the frame of a GIS for the development of a volcanic risk assessment information system; A probabilistic model for the assessment of the earthquake economic losses in Italy; Reliability analysis of slopes; Application of short reliability methods for risk reduction assessment of a pressurized vessel in offshore production facilities; Estimation of site specific parameters to describe the potential environmental impacts of material flows of metallic raw materials.