Risk Analysis: VIII(44 WIT Transactions on Information and Communication Technologies)

Comprised of the papers presented at the eighth, and latest, International Conference Simulation in Risk Analysis and Hazard Mitigation, this book covers a topic of increasing importance. Scientific knowledge is essential to our better understanding of risk. Natural hazards such as floods, earthquakes, landslides, fires and others, have always affected human societies. Man-made hazards, however, played a comparatively small role until the industrial revolution when the risk of catastrophic events started to increase due to the rapid growth of new technologies and the urbanisation of populations. The interaction of natural and anthropogenic risks adds to the complexity of the problem. Due to advances in computational methods and the ability to model systems more precisely we can now quantify hazards, simulate their effects and calculate risk with greater accuracy, enabling us to manage risk much more effectively. These developments are particularly relevant to environmental issues, where substantial risks are involved. Governments, and their publics, now place a high priority on effective risk management and the mitigation of possible hazards.Covering topics such as: Risk Assessment and Management; Risk Mapping; Hazard Prevention, Management and Control; Natural Hazards and Climate Change; Vulnerability and Resilience Assessment; Safety and Security; Emergency Response; Risk Mitigation During Evacuation.

Table of Contents:
Contents Section 1: Risk assessment and management Lithuanian activities in energy security; Risk assessment of oil and gas producing areas in Siberia; Dynamic model for energy security level assessment; Bayesian networks in the management of oil field piracy risk; Using remotely sensed data to identify areas at risk: a case of central Slovenia; Drought risk management in transboundary river basins: a Mediterranean feasibility assessment; Gully erosion risk in Hungary; Expert system approach to safety management; Lighting of indoor work places: risk assessment procedure; Development of generic scenarios of industrial accidents triggered by floods: a first step toward decreasing the vulnerability of industrial facilities; Risk assessment of the job tasks for heavy equipment operators; Case study: effects of urban sustainable development on floods in the Grand Paris project Section 2: Risk mapping Risk maps for evaluation of natural and man-made hazards; Flood risk assessment with the implementation of a two-dimensional hydraulic model in a floodplain catchment; The advantages of using a Geographic Information System to evaluate risk in highly contaminated sites; Developing a dynamic risk map (DRM) for pipeline construction projects in the Middle East Section 3: Hazard prevention, management and control Magnitude and frequency: challenges for the assessment of vulnerability to geomorphic hazards; A risk management methodology for protozoa control in drinking water supply systems; Emergency preparedness and operational response: a Spanish case study within the European Union Framework; Integration of the SMS to IMS in Estonian Seveso II establishments: selected case studies; Landslide susceptibility analyses in flysch areas in the north-eastern part of the Adriatic coast; Structural strategies and measures reducing flood action on architectural heritage Section 4: Natural hazards and climate change Using blind-tests for database evaluation in the prediction of rotational-translational landslides in the Tirano North area, northern Italy; Decision uncertainties in natural hazard risk management: damage potential; Construction of confidence intervals for extreme rainfall quantiles; On-line monitoring system applied to explosive conditions of printing machine dryers; Runoff prediction under different climate scenarios in the source region of the Yellow River Section 5: Vulnerability and resilience assessment CONFINE: an airtightness level calculation tool for people's protection in case of accidental toxic releases; Assessing urban resilience; Empirical fragility assessment after the January 12, 2010 Haiti earthquake Section 6: Safety and security Game ship control sensitivity in collision situations; Risk management of NATURA 2000 sites in Czech military training areas; Risk analysis of airplane accidents due to bird strikes using Monte Carlo simulations; Promoting a culture of health and safety at work: safety - a permanent priority Section 7: Emergency response Evaluating emergency preparedness with exercise monitoring; The latest developments in 3D visualization engine room simulators for emergency procedure training; The critical role of open space in hazard mitigation (earthquake) in traditional commercial spaces: case study - Qazvin Old Bazaar Section 8: Risk mitigation during evacuation (Special session organised by F. Russo) The role of demand models in evacuation; The role of path choice and traffic assignment models in evacuation; The role of optimization models for rescue vehicles routes in evacuation; The role of training in evacuation; The role of ITS in evacuation route choice; The role of ITS in evacuation route optimization for emergency vehicles