Improving and Enhancing Scenario Planning: Futures Thinking

This book presents a contemporary view of the approaches and theories that inform global scenario planning and foresight science, providing practical recommendations for improving scenario development processes. Its insights bridge the gap between last century’s foundations and this century’s innovations. Megan M. Crawford and George Wright bring together a global team of expert authors to illustrate the development of scenario storylines and the role of a facilitator in team-based activities and processes. They detail practical scenario applications, provide guidance for practice improvement, and analyse the use of scenario thinking in strategic choice. Together, the authors show the path of scenario development, from foundation to validation, and explore new and broader views of futures thinking, scenario methodologies, innovative developments, and practical applications that reflect the evolution of the field. With guidance for practitioners and support for academics across the fields of futures and foresight science, Improving and Enhancing Scenario Planning is a valuable resource. Students of business, management, innovation and technology will also find this book beneficial.

Table of Contents:
Contents Introduction 1 PART I FOUNDATION 1 Sorting out the “methodological chaos”: A tour of the main methodological structures of scenario planning 7 Jörg M. Delhaes, Ana C. L. Vieira, , António Alvarenga and Mónica D. Oliveira 2 Update on a theoretical model of scenario planning: Empirical evidence and supporting research – towards a theory 33 Thomas J. Chermack and Jessica M. Serkey Bishop PART II FRAMING CONSIDERATIONS 3 Escaping the enlightenment’s damaging legacy: Scenario planning as if-then conditional prospection 54 James Derbyshire 4 The wayfinder’s approach to futures 73 Mushfiqa Monica Jamaluddin, Heba Alhadyian and Abdulrahman Alsulaimi 5 Reframing and futures literacy: Tackling the poverty of the modern imagination 96 Kwamou Eva Feukeu 6 The wilds beyond 2x2 futures: An enquiry into decolonising foresight 118 Sophia Bazile and Geci Karuri-Sebina 7 Exploring cultural diversity in scenario planning and futures thinking practices 142 Per Dannemand Andersen and Monamie B. Haines PART III DEVELOPING SCENARIO STORYLINES 8 From causality to relationality: (Re)emplotting scenarios 165 Adam Cowart 9 Designing scenarios from stakeholders’ acts: Directions and lessons from extreme strategic action scenarios 182 Fabrice Roubelat and Anne Marchais-Roubelat PART IV PROCESS INTERVENTIONS 10 Examining emotion in the facilitation of scenario planning 201 Nicholas J. Rowland and Matthew J. Spaniol 11 Exploring creativity and insight in the scenario process 220 Gökhan Gökmen and Peter McKiernan 12 In the thick of it: Scenario planning at a time of crisis 243 Maureen Meadows, Alessandro Merendino and Frances A. O’Brien 13 Team diversity in scenario planning: Theoretical insights and implications for team composition 265 Harry Patria and Efstathios Tapinos 14 Leveraging AI for strategic foresight: Unveiling future horizons 285 Elena Fitkov-Norris and Nataliya Kocheva PART V PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS 15 The government foresight framework 306 Mariam Saif Al Mansoori 16 Designing utopian queer futures – Using scenario planning to think critically about the queer experience of artificial intelligence 329 Dawn McAra-Hunter 17 The COVID-19 pandemic as a wake-up call: Delphi-based scenarios and their implications for the generics and biosimilars industry 2030+ 353 Nick Lange, Heiko A. von der Gracht and Stefanie Kisgen 18 Methodological exploration of improved reference scenario approaches: A case study in NOVA SBE Executive Education 372 António Alvarenga and Ana C. L. Vieira PART VI OUTCOMES AND VALIDATIONS 19 Foresight, strategy, and impact 391 Adam Vigdor Gordon 20 A conceptual framework to evaluate scenarios and futures 402 Daniel J. W. Arthur and Graham W. Winch 21 Measuring the quality of scenarios generated using the simple scenarios technique 431 Dilek Önkal and Mandeep K. Dhami 22 Evaluating effects of scenario planning: Lessons from medical research 454 Shardul S. Phadnis

About the Author :
Edited by Megan M. Crawford, Lecturer of Data Science, Department of Management, Edinburgh Napier University and George Wright, Professor, Department of Management Science, University of Strathclyde, UK

Review :
‘Scenario planning, as an anticipatory practice, is an important and ever-developing field of professional activity. The knowledge forming the basis for methods used continues to evolve through research and reflective practice, giving the field greater robustness. The impressive contributions to this book provide a source of well researched contemporary thinking and knowledge on many areas that connect to understanding, designing and implementing scenario planning. I would recommend this book to anyone concerned with methodological developments in scenario planning.’ ‘This book presents diverse voices from academia and practice – with a mix of cultures, disciplines and countries – that challenge our mostly Western views of scenario planning. Its twenty-two chapters range from methodological chaos and limits of rationality to decolonizing the future and scenarios about AI and LGBTQ rights. The chapters combined scan scenario planning’s periphery broadly and point to promising developments for the field.’BR> ‘With a diverse range of authors, the range of topics covered in this book is unusually wide, going from “sorting out the methodological chaos of scenario planning” to the practicalities of how to do it. The book is, in my view, the best guide for two major audiences; the first is for those who have been involved in the field of scenario planning, for whom the book provides a comprehensive framework to deepen their understanding and evaluate the quality of scenarios and their effects. The second audience is those who are new to scenario planning and wish to learn about the field, for whom the book provides a wide range and invaluable source of knowledge and understanding.’