Quantitative Conservation of Vertebrates

This book provides a hands-on introduction to the construction and application of models to studies of vertebrate distribution, abundance, and habitat. The book is aimed at field biologists, conservation planners, and advanced undergraduate and postgraduate students who are involved with planning and analyzing conservation studies, and applying the results to conservation decisions. The book also acts as a bridge to more advanced and mathematically challenging coverage in the wider literature. Part I provides a basic background in population and community modeling. It introduces statistical models, and familiarizes the reader with important concepts in the design of monitoring and research programs. These programs provide the essential data that guide conservation decision making. Part II covers the principal methods used to estimate abundance, occupancy, demographic parameters, and community parameters, including occupancy sampling, sample counts, distance sampling, and capture-mark-recapture (for both closed and open populations). Emphasis is placed on practical aspects of designing and implementing field studies, and the proper analysis of data. Part III introduces structured decision making and adaptive management, in which predictive models are used to inform conservation decision makers on appropriate decisions in the face of uncertainty—with the goal of reducing uncertainty through monitoring and research. A detailed case study is used to illustrate each of these themes. Numerous worked examples and accompanying electronic material (on a website -  http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/conroy - and accompanying CD) provide the details of model construction and application, and data analysis.

Table of Contents:
Preface vii Acknowledgements ix Companion website and CD-ROM x 1 Introduction: the role of science in conservation 1 Part I Basic concepts in scientific investigations for conservation 7 2 Using models in conservation biology 9 3 Models of population dynamics 15 4 Applying population models to conservation 32 5 Basics of study design and analysis 47 Part II Conservation studies and monitoring programs 71 6 General principles of estimation 73 7 Occupancy (presence–absence) analysis 81 8 Sample counts for abundance estimation 101 9 Distance sampling for estimating density and abundance 115 10 Capture–mark–recapture studies for estimating abundance and density 135 11 Estimation of survival from radiotelemetry, nesting success studies, and age distributions 160 12 Mark–recapture for estimating survival, recruitment, abundance, and movement rates 189 13 Analysis of habitat 219 14 Estimation of species richness and other community parameters 230 Part III Integrating modeling and monitoring for conservation 251 15 Elements of conservation decision making 253 16 Accounting for uncertainty in conservation decisions 265 17 Learning and adaptive management 274 18 Case study: decision modeling and adaptive management for declining grassland birds in the southeastern USA 289 19 Summary and recommendations 303 Literature cited 307 Glossary 314 Appendix A: Statistical and modeling programs available on the worldwide web 324 Appendix B: Other internet resources 326 Appendix C: Modeling and statistical notation 328 Appendix D: Key to abundance and parameter estimation 331 Index 337