Predicting the Future: An Introduction to the Theory of Forecasting

Develops a general theory of prediction that encompasses its fundamental principles, methodology, and practice and gives an overview of its promises and problems. The future obviously matters to us. It is, after all, where we'll be spending the rest of our lives. We need some degree of foresight if we are to make effective plans for managing our affairs. Much that we would like to know in advance cannot be predicted. But a vast amount of successful prediction is nonetheless possible, especially in the context of applied sciences such as medicine, meteorology, and engineering. This book examines our prospects for finding out about the future in advance. It addresses questions such as why prediction is possible in some areas and not others; what sorts of methods and resources make successful prediction possible; and what obstacles limit the predictive venture. Nicholas Rescher develops a general theory of prediction that encompasses its fundamental principles, methodology, and practice and gives an overview of its promises and problems. Predicting the Future considers the anthropological and historical background of the predictive enterprise. It also examines the conceptual, epistemic, and ontological principles that set the stage for predictive efforts. In short, Rescher explores the basic features of the predictive situation and considers their broader implications in science, in philosophy, and in the management of our daily affairs.

Table of Contents:
Preface Introduction Preliminaries The Shape of Things to Come I. BACKGROUND 1. The Philosophical Anthropology of Forecasting The Indispensability of Forecasters Attitudes toward Foreknowledge: Predictability Believers and Skeptics 2. Historical Stagesetting From Antiquity to the Middle Ages The Seventeenth and Eighteenth Centuries The Nineteenth Century The Rise (and Fall?) of Futurology in the Post-World War II Era II. CONCEPTUAL, EPISTEMIC, AND ONTOLOGICAL BASICS 3. Conceptual Preliminaries Predictive Questions and Answers Predictions versus Forecasts Prediction and Probability Pseudoprediction and Spurious Futurity Prediction and Mathematics Metapredictions, Reflexivity, and Feedback Phenomena 4. Basic Epistemic Issues Rational Anticipation: The Need for Predictive Cogency The Information Sensitivity of Prediction The Essentiality of Detail and the Security Definiteness Tradeoff The Prospect of Rational Prediction and the Justification of Induction The Risk of Error 5. Some Ontological Issues Futuristic Ontology: The Truth Status of Claims about the Future Predictability versus Predetermination: The LaPlacean Vision Statistical Predictability Predictive Reach: Forecasting Horizons and Short-Range versus Long-Range Forecasting Volatility and the Prospects of Prediction: The Circumstantiality or Prediction III. PREDICTIVE METHODS AND THEIR POTENTIAL 6. Predictive Methods Predictive Methodologies Unformalized (Judgmental) Predictions Amalgamating Expert Predictions: Aggregation Process (Averaging) Amalgamating Expert Predictions: Delphi Methodology and Concensus Systematized Expertise ("Expert Systems" or "Bootstrapping") Some Formal Methods of Prediction: Trend Extrapolation, Pattern Fitting Indicators (Rationalized and Unexplained) Black-Box Prediction and Its Role Scientific Prediction: Predictive Validation via Laws and Modeling Second-Order Processes: Forecast Amalgamation 7. The Evaluation of Prediction and Predictors Evaluating Predictive Questions The Resolvability of Predictive Questions Difficulty The Relevancy of Predictive Answers Predictive Detail: Specifics versus Generalities Correctness Accuracy Credibility / Evidentiation / Probability The Dialectic of Credibility and Correctness Robustness On Evaluating Predictors: Standards of Predictive Competence 8. Obstacles to Predictive Foreknowledge The Epistemological and Ontological Limits of Predictability Uncertainty: Ignorance as a Prime Obstacle to Prediction Anarchy and Instability Ontological Impredictability: Chance More on Chance and Uncertainty: The Case of the Surprise Examination Chaos (Or Extreme Volatility) Spontaneity, Choice, and Free Will Innovation Fuzziness: Problems of Quantum Indeterminism Myopia Inferential Incapacity Factor Exfoliation and Impredictability Diffusion Misprediction: Prediction Spoilers IV. PREDICTIVE PRACTICE 9. Prediction in the Sciences Prediction and the Aims of Science The Supposed Symmetry of Prediction and Explanation The Harmony Thesis: The Symbiosis of Explanation and Prediction Predicitve Slack: The Looseness of Fit between Predictive Performance and the Truth of Theories Limits to Predictive Capacity 10. Predictions about Natural Science: The Problem of Future Knowledge The Impermanence of Theory in Natural Science: Why Theories Fail Difficulites in Predicting Future Science In Natural Science, the Present Cannot Speak for the Future Could Natural Science Achieve Predictive Completeness? The Infeasibility of Identifying Insolubilia Predictive Implications of the Information / Knowledge Relationship 11. Prediction in Human Affairs The Fate of Individuals and Groups Prediction in Economics Other Social Sciences (Demographics, Sociology, Politics, etc.) Can History Predict? V. PREDICTIVE LIMITS 12. Fundamental Limits on Predictors The Impracticability of an All-Purpose Predictive Engine Problems of Reflexivity and Metaprediction Predictive Exaggeration and Other Biases 13. Predictive Incapacity and Rational Decision Problems Rationality and Predictability Predictive Overdetermination: The Case of the Predictive Poisoner Another Case of Analysis Underdetermination: The Prisoner's Dilemma Lessons 14. The Shape of Things to Come: Facing the Future Key Aspects of the Future The Problem of the Future's Tractability Coping with Impotence The Portent of the Future: Optimism versus Pessimism Would We Really Want to Know? Coda Notes Bibliography Index of Names