Introduction to Bayesian Estimation and Copula Models of Dependence

Presents an introduction to Bayesian statistics, presents an emphasis on Bayesian methods (prior and posterior), Bayes estimation, prediction, MCMC,Bayesian regression, and Bayesian analysis of statistical modelsof dependence, and features a focus on copulas for risk management Introduction to Bayesian Estimation and Copula Models of Dependence emphasizes the applications of Bayesian analysis to copula modeling and equips readers with the tools needed to implement the procedures of Bayesian estimation in copula models of dependence. This book is structured in two parts: the first four chapters serve as a general introduction to Bayesian statistics with a clear emphasis on parametric estimation and the following four chapters stress statistical models of dependence with a focus of copulas. A review of the main concepts is discussed along with the basics of Bayesian statistics including prior information and experimental data, prior and posterior distributions, with an emphasis on Bayesian parametric estimation. The basic mathematical background of both Markov chains and Monte Carlo integration and simulation is also provided. The authors discuss statistical models of dependence with a focus on copulas and present a brief survey of pre-copula dependence models. The main definitions and notations of copula models are summarized followed by discussions of real-world cases that address particular risk management problems. In addition, this book includes: • Practical examples of copulas in use including within the Basel Accord II documents that regulate the world banking system as well as examples of Bayesian methods within current FDA recommendations • Step-by-step procedures of multivariate data analysis and copula modeling, allowing readers to gain insight for their own applied research and studies • Separate reference lists within each chapter and end-of-the-chapter exercises within Chapters 2 through 8 • A companion website containing appendices: data files and demo files in Microsoft® Office Excel®, basic code in R, and selected exercise solutions Introduction to Bayesian Estimation and Copula Models of Dependence is a reference and resource for statisticians who need to learn formal Bayesian analysis as well as professionals within analytical and risk management departments of banks and insurance companies who are involved in quantitative analysis and forecasting. This book can also be used as a textbook for upper-undergraduate and graduate-level courses in Bayesian statistics and analysis. ARKADY SHEMYAKIN, PhD, is Professor in the Department of Mathematics and Director of the Statistics Program at the University of St. Thomas. A member of the American Statistical Association and the International Society for Bayesian Analysis, Dr. Shemyakin's research interests include informationtheory, Bayesian methods of parametric estimation, and copula models in actuarial mathematics, finance, and engineering. ALEXANDER KNIAZEV, PhD, is Associate Professor and Head of the Department of Mathematics at Astrakhan State University in Russia. Dr. Kniazev's research interests include representation theory of Lie algebras and finite groups, mathematical statistics, econometrics, and financial mathematics.

Table of Contents:
Introduction 1 How This Book Is Different: The Eric Tyson/Ray Brown Difference 1 Foolish Assumptions 2 Icons Used in This Book 3 Beyond the Book 4 Where to Go from Here 4 Part 1: Getting Started with Selling Your House 5 Chapter 1: Deciding to Sell 7 Figuring Out If You Really Need to Sell 9 Good reasons to stay 10 Reasons to consider selling 15 Knowing the Health of Your Housing Market 17 Selling in a depressed housing market 17 Selling during a strong market 21 Chapter 2: Selling and Your Personal Finances 23 Trading Up 23 Examining your housing budget 24 Figuring your expected expenses after trading up 27 Determining the financial impact on your future goals 31 Exploring the other costs of trading up 31 Making Retirement Housing Decisions 32 Trading down 32 Researching reverse mortgages 38 Tax Facts Sellers and Landlords Ought to Know 43 Chapter 3: Exploring the Economics of Selling 45 Estimating Proceeds of Sale 46 Estimated sale price 46 Closing costs 47 Mortgage payoff 48 Moving expenses 50 Putting it all together 51 Assessing the Financial Feasibility of a Move 52 Researching living costs and employment opportunities 52 Avoiding relocation traps 54 Chapter 4: Confronting Financing Issues 57 Financing Decisions When Trading Up 58 Choosing your mortgage 58 Financing improvements 59 The Trials and Tribulations of Seller Financing 61 Asking yourself why you’d ever want to be a lender 62 Deciding if seller financing is for you 63 Finding creditworthy buyers 64 Deciding what to charge 72 Protecting yourself legally 73 Part 2: Tactical Considerations 75 Chapter 5: Timing Is Everything 77 Timing the Sale of Your House 77 First peak season: Spring flowers and For Sale signs bloom 79 First valley: Summer doldrums 79 Second peak season: Autumn leaves and houses of every color 80 Death Valley: Real estate activity hibernates until spring 82 The Seller’s Quandary: Timing the Purchase of Your Home 82 Consolidating Your Sale and Purchase 83 Determine your house’s current value 83 Check your buying power 84 Familiarize yourself with the market 85 Take action 86 Chapter 6: For Sale By Owner 89 Eyeing the Potential FSBO Advantages 89 You want to save money on commissions 90 You may already have a ready, willing, and able buyer 90 You may know the house and neighborhood well 91 You may be more motivated than an agent 91 You like challenges 92 You want to be in control 93 Your house may sell itself 93 Focusing on Potential FSBO Disadvantages 93 You may not know how to price property 93 You may not know how to prepare your house for sale 94 You may not know how to market your property 94 You may not know how to separate real buyers from fakes 94 You may not have enough experience as a negotiator 95 You may get yourself into legal trouble 95 You may not know how to close the sale 95 Increasing Your Chances of Success 96 Educate yourself 96 Ensure that other team members are especially strong 96 Cooperate with agents 97 Financially qualify prospective buyers 97 Chapter 7: Your Real Estate Team 99 Teaming Up — A Winning Concept 99 Landing the Perfect Listing Agent 101 Understanding agent relationships 102 Recognizing the best listing agents 104 Choosing your listing agent 105 Achieving top performance from the winner 112 Bringing in the Broker 113 Handling House Inspectors 114 Arranging premarketing property inspections 114 Exploring the advantages of inspecting before marketing 115 Investigating inspectors 117 The Officiating Escrow Officer 120 Finding Financial and Tax Advisors 121 Locating a Good Lawyer 122 Choosing among lawyers 123 Working well with your lawyer 124 Chapter 8: Listing Contracts and Commissions 125 Understanding Listing Contracts 125 Considering the Types of Listings 127 Exclusive listings 127 Open listings 137 Examining Broker Compensation 139 Commissions 139 Net listings 144 Discount brokers 145 Preparing Seller Disclosure Statements 147 What information should you disclose? 147 An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure 152 Part 3: Getting Top Dollar When You Sell 155 Chapter 9: Preparing Your House for Sale 157 Handling Presale Preparation 158 Creating curb appeal 158 Exteriors attract, but interiors sell 160 Staging 162 Think Again: Avoiding Major Improvements 165 Chapter 10: Determining Your House’s Value 167 Defining Cost, Price, and Value 168 Value is elusive 168 Cost is history 169 Price is the here and now 170 Determining Fair Market Value (FMV) 170 Need-based pricing isn’t FMV 171 Median prices aren’t FMV 171 Using a Comparable Market Analysis 173 Playing with the numbers 176 Interpreting CMA adjustments and flaws 177 Considering appraisals versus CMAs 179 Bidding Wars 180 How buyers and sellers get to FMV 180 Why “buying a listing” ruins property pricing 181 Chapter 11: Price It Right and Buyers Will Come 183 Getting a Grasp on Pricing Methods 184 Four-phase pricing: Prevalent but ineffective 184 Pleasure-pleasure-panic pricing: Fast, top-dollar sales 185 Quantum pricing: An effective technique 188 Identifying Incentives and Gimmicks 190 Deal-making incentives 191 Deceptive gimmicks 191 Overpricing Your House 192 Can’t sell versus won’t sell 193 Three factors all buyers consider 193 Danger signs of overpricing 194 The foolproof way to correct overpricing 195 Placing the blame where it belongs 197 Part 4: the Brass Tacks of Selling Your House 199 Chapter 12: Marketing Your House 201 Advertising That Works 201 For Sale sign 202 Classified ads 203 Multiple listing service (MLS) 206 Listing statement 207 Computers 208 Word of mouth 208 Arranging Open Houses 209 Brokers’ opens 210 Weekend open houses 210 Showing Your Property 211 Preshowing preparations 212 The final showing 213 Chapter 13: Using Technology to Sell Your House 215 Knowing the Internet’s Limitations: The Net Alone Can’t Sell Your House 216 Ensure good web promo of your house 216 Knowing the truth about for-sale-by-owner (FSBO) sites 217 Realize the limits of valuing your house online 219 Relying on Technology to Determine Whether to Sell 220 Chapter 14: Negotiating Strategies for Sellers 223 Mastering Your Feelings 224 Putting emotions in their place 225 Gaining detachment through an agent 226 Following Some Basic Rules 227 Surviving the Bargaining Process 227 Receiving an offer to purchase 229 Dealing with contingencies — necessary uncertainty 231 Making a counteroffer 232 Negotiating from a Position of Strength 236 Handling multiple offers 237 Delaying presentation of offers 237 Setting guidelines for an orderly presentation process 238 Selecting the best offer 239 Negotiating from a Position of Weakness 241 Rejecting lowball offers 242 Considering other offers usually made in weak markets 244 Negotiating credits in escrow 247 Distinguishing Real Buyers from Fakes 251 Are the buyers creditworthy? 252 Are the buyers realistic? 252 Are the buyers motivated? 252 Do the buyers have a time frame? 252 Are the buyers cooperative? 253 Chapter 15: It Ain’t Over ’til the Check Clears 255 Entering the Neutral Territory of an Escrow 255 Understanding the role of the escrow officer 256 Maximizing your escrow 257 Avoiding the curse of December escrows 261 Letting Go of Your House 262 Moving daze 263 The final verification of condition 265 Surviving Seller’s Remorse or (Gasp) the Dreaded Double Whammy 265 Confronting your fears 266 Facing the ultimate test 267 Chapter 16: Income Tax Filings after the Sale 269 Profits from a House Sale 269 Defining profits 270 Excluding house sale profits from tax 270 Tax Filings Required after the Sale 271 Schedule D: Capital Gains and Losses 272 State income taxes on housing profits 275 Part 5: the Part of Tens 277 Chapter 17: Ten Things to Do After You Sell 279 Keep Copies of the Closing and Settlement Papers 279 Keep Proof of Improvements and Prior Purchases 280 Stash Your Cash in a Good Money Market Fund 280 Double-Check the Tax Rules for Excluding Tax on House Sale Profits 281 Cast a Broad Net When You Consider Your Next Home 282 Remember That Renting Can Be a Fine Strategy 282 Reevaluate Your Personal Finances When Things Change 283 Don’t Simply Rehire Your Listing Agent When You Repurchase 283 Think Through Your Next Down Payment 284 Remember to Send Change of Address Notices 284 Chapter 18: Ten Tips for Selling Rental Real Estate 287 Don’t Inadvertently Convert Your House into Income Property 287 Exercise Extra Care When You Sell Rental Property 289 Know How to Defer Your Investment Property Profits 289 Understand Your Local Market to Time Your Sale 290 Understand Opportunities for Adding Value 291 Maximize Your Property’s Rental Income 292 Minimize Your Property’s Expenses 292 Utilize Agents with Investment Property Experience 293 Visit Comparables and Review the Valuation Analysis 293 Work with Tax and Legal Advisors Who Understand Rental Property 294 Chapter 19: Answers for Ten Questions Home Buyers May Ask 295 What Do You Like Best and Least about Living Here? 296 Why Are You Selling This Lovely House? 296 How Much Did You Pay for This House? 297 How Did You Establish the Asking Price? 298 Have You Received Inspection Reports? 298 May I See Your Written Defect Disclosure Statement? 298 Are There Any Neighborhood Changes That May Affect the Home’s Desirability? 299 How Many Times in the Last Year Have You Called the Police and Why? 299 What Problems Have You Had with the House? 300 What Are the Local Public Schools Like? 301 Part 6: Appendixes 303 Appendix A: Sample Real Estate Purchase Contract 305 Appendix B: Example of a Good Inspection Report 317 Appendix C: Glossary 333 Index 349