Net Force #4: Breaking Point 27 Bin

Ethiopia has been undergoing a turbulent political transition over the past decade. Lost in Transition, authored by Befekadu Hailu, a renowned pro-democracy activist, takes us through this tumultuous journey with insider observations, corroborated by a wide range of sources. How did Ethiopia end up losing the transition that the world believed was destined for democratization? What does the Ethiopian history, the global phenomenon of digitalized disinformation, and competing nationalisms have to do with the derailment of this transition? How did Ethiopians jump from the optimism of peace and reconciliation to the madness of mob rule, communal violence, and civil war? What does the world learn from Ethiopia's experience?

Befekadu has detailed the answers to these questions with keen attention to detail and rigorous resources he cited. He wrote, "The EPRDF regime didn't simply vanish; it has transformed into the Prosperity Party. However, the Prosperity Party has proven to be worse than its predecessor. The EPRDF, with its clearly defined Ethnofederalist narratives, democratic centralist decision-making, and Marxist-Leninist authoritarian rule, was predictable. In contrast, the Prosperity Party is unpredictable. It is deeply centralized, adopts a vague narrative that swings between traditional Ethiopianist and Ethnofederalist ideologies, and remains repressive in practice despite passing liberal laws. Although the EPRDF was hostile to dissents, it was able to maintain peace and stability with commendable economic progress; the Prosperity Party has created a hostile political environment for all, with shaky economic liberalization that has driven up the cost of living."

Lost in Transition critically examines Ethiopia's complex political transition in the 2010s, initially sparked by social media-fueled "Era of Protests" and the rise of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who initially brought "Winds of Hope" through reforms and peace with Eritrea. However, the optimism quickly soured due to escalating mob rule, communal conflicts, and civil war, accompanied by the pervasive spread of disinformation and hate speech across both mainstream and social media platforms, significantly impacting events like the Irreechaa festival in 2016, the Hachalu Hundessa assassination in 2020, and the Tigray War, which is dubbed the "Era of Madness". It highlights how various political actors, including the government, exploited the information ecosystem to advance their narratives, undermine opponents, and incite violence, ultimately contributing to the derailment of the potential democratic transition and leaving the country in a fragile state marked by persistent insurgencies and a deepening erosion of trust in institutions.

Befekadu draws on his personal observation and scholarly consensus to illustrate the vulnerability of political transitions to mismanagement, power struggles, and the weaponization of information in the digital age.