Multiregional Input — Output Models in Long-Run Simulation: (3 Studies in Operational Regional Science)

This monograph is about the multi regional input-output model used in long-run simulation. The input-output technique was originally developed for spaceless, short-term analysis of a national economy. However, its high potential as an analytical tool has resulted in an expansion of its application in various directions. Thus, we now have the inter- and mul tiregional input-output model, in which a nation is broken down into a number of interacting regions, and some applications dealing with long-range projections of input-output systems. This study attempts to integrate those two directions within the framework of interregional simulation modeling. A major problem with the multiregional input-output model for long-run simulation is how to update the technical and trade coefficients in the model. This study focuses on the trade coefficient updating problem, and a solution is presented in which a trade coefficient model is coupled with the price model built into the input-output system. When I began this project, the main problem facing me was not purely theoretical but a very practical one: how to design an interregional model for Indonesia. Indonesia is a country characterized by its quite uneven population distribution over the archipelago. My interest was in the formation of its settlement policy, and the use of modeling to assist in this process. This original intention may be evident in various parts of the text.

Table of Contents:
1. Introduction.- 1.1. Objectives and Scope of the Study.- 1.2. Plan of the Study.- 2. Input—Output Models with a Regional Dimension.- 2.1. Introduction.- 2.2. The National Input—Output Model.- 2.3. The Interregional Input—Output Model.- 2.4. Multiregional Input—Output Models.- 2.5. Choice of the Model for Long-Run Simulation.- 2.6. Summary.- 3. The MRIO Model in Long-Run Simulation.- 3.1. Introduction.- 3.2. Problems with MRIO Long-Run Simulation.- 3.3. Revising Interregional Trade Patterns.- 3.4. A Potential Inconsistency in MRIO.- 3.5. Summary and Introduction to the Remaining Chapters.- 4. The Extended MRIO Price Model.- 4.1. Introduction.- 4.2. Input—Output Price Models Again.- 4.3. The Extended IRIO Price Model.- 4.4. A Nonsurvey Method of Extension.- 4.5. Some Other Practical Problems.- 4.6. The Extended MRIO Price Model.- 4.7. Summary.- 5. Multinomial Logit Models of Trade Coefficients.- 5.1. Introduction.- 5.2. Estimating Trade Patterns Again.- 5.3. The Discrete Choice Model.- 5.4. The Diversification Benefit Model.- 5.5. Some Comparisons.- 5.6. Summary.- 6. Linking the Trade Coefficient Model to the Price Model.- 6.1. Introduction.- 6.2. The Price Model Consistent with the Discrete Choice Model.- 6.3. The Price Model Consistent with the Diversification Benefit Model.- 6.4. Equilibrium Solutions.- 6.5. Lagged Solutions in Simulation.- 6.6. Summary.- 7. An Interregional Simulation Model for Indonesia.- 7.1. Introduction.- 7.2. The Model Structure.- 7.3. Summary.- 8. Testing the MNL Trade Coefficient Models Using Indonesian Data.- 8.1. Objective and Approach.- 8.2. Models To Be Estimated.- 8.3. Data.- 8.4. Results.- 8.5. Summary.- 9. Towards Long-Run Simulation Modeling with an MRIO Model.- 9.1. Introduction.- 9.2. Remaining Issues.- 9.3. ConcludingRemarks.- Appendix 2. Derivation of the Mean and Standard Deviation of the Weibull Distribution.- Appendix 3. Cost Calculation of Transport Subsectors.- Appendix 4. Background of the Indonesian Modeling Exercise.- Appendix 5. The Data Set.- References.- Author Index.