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Home > Sciences & Environment > Geography > Bevolkerungsprognosen: Methoden Und Ergebnisse
Bevolkerungsprognosen: Methoden Und Ergebnisse

Bevolkerungsprognosen: Methoden Und Ergebnisse


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About the Book

In Deutschland ruckt das Thema der Bevolkerungsentwicklung in Politik und Gesellschaft immer mehr in den Vordergrund. Das Bewusstsein, dass sich die Bevolkerungszahl und Alterstruktur des deutschen Volkes mit Auswirkungen auf Gesellschaft, soziale Sicherungssysteme und Infrastruktur verandern wird hat Viele zum Handeln veranlasst. Der Bundestag hat eine Enquete-Kommission zum demographischen Wandel (BUNDESTAG 2000: www.bundestag.de) eingesetzt und anerkannte Medien sprechen schon von einer demographischen Zeitbombe (FAZ: 2003: Nr.181 S.12). Jedoch kommt dieses Phanomen nicht unerwartet. Demographen haben schon vor 30 Jahren aufgrund von Bevolkerungs-Vorausschatzungen auf diese Entwicklung hingewiesen. Mit Bevolkerungsvorausschatzungen wird versucht die zukunftige Bevolkerungsentwicklung vorauszusagen. Dabei lassen sich zwei Typen unterscheiden (BAHR 1997: 267f.). Zum einen Bevolkerungsprojektionen und Modellrechnungen, die eher auf willkurlichen und hypothetischen Annahmen und auf einer bestimmten Zielsetzung beruhen. Zum anderen Bevolkerungsvorhersagen bzw. Bevolkerungsprognosen, bei denen hingegen von der wahrscheinlichsten Entwicklung ausgegangen wird. Weltweit werden Bevolkerungsvorausschatzungen von verschiedenen Institutionen mit Ergebnissen auf unterschiedlichsten raumlichen Ebenen durchgefuhrt (RV BO 2003: 11). Die wichtigsten Internationalen Prognosen fur Deutschland sind wohl die World Population Prospects' der UNITED NATIONS POPULATION DIVISION (2002: 30) und die Veroffentlichungen von EUROSTAT (2004: 8) dem statistischen Dienst der Europaischen Union (EU). Auf Bundesebene erstellt das Statistische Bundesamt seit 1951 Bevolkerungsprognosen, wobei seit dem Jahre 1965 in Zusammenarbeit mit den Statistischen Landesamtern die so genannten koordinierten Bevolkerungs- Vorausberechnungen durchgefuhrt werden um die Ergebnisse zu spezifizieren (RV BO 2003: 11). Des weiteren gibt das Bundesinnenministerium (BMI) uber seinen Arbeitskreis Bevolkerungsfragen eine Modellrechnung zur Bevolkerungsentwicklung heraus (BMI 2000: 16). Auch das Bundesamt fur Bauwesen und Raumordnung (BBR) und seine Vorgangerin das BfLR fuhren seit uber 20 Jahren Bevolkerungsprognosen durch (BUCHER/SCHLOMER 2003: 1). Studienarbeit aus dem Jahr 2004 im Fachbereich Geowiss. / Geographie - Bevolkerungsgeogr., Stadt- u. Raumplanung, Note: 1, Eberhard-Karls-Universitat Tubingen (Geographisches), Veranstaltung: Angewandte Geographie, 24 Quellen im Literaturverzeichnis, Sprache: Deutsch.


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Product Details
  • ISBN-13: 9783638371452
  • Publisher: Grin Verlag
  • Publisher Imprint: Grin Verlag
  • Language: German
  • Sub Title: Methoden Und Ergebnisse
  • ISBN-10: 363837145X
  • Publisher Date: 01 Jan 2005
  • Binding: Digital (delivered electronically)
  • No of Pages: 34


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