Economic Structural Change: Analysis and Forecasting

In modern economic model building, structural change is a key concept. Economic growth and events like the oil price shocks have impacts on the economic system such that models with fixed structure are illusions. Considerable progress has been made in the last few years concerning statistical and econometric tools. Methods for identification of structural change, models that are robust to changes and assimilate their effects, and adequate forecasting techniques have been developed. Under the auspices of the International Institute for Systems Analysis (IIASA), a very active community of statisticians and econometricians has made a very influential effort in this area. The purpose of this volume is to document these activities, to present new methods and developments in this area, and to demonstrate applications. Particular weight is given to nonparametric and robust methods for identification of and modeling under structural change, a Bayesian approach to forecast combination, and time-varying parameter cointegration. The book gives an up-to-date status report on the field and should stimulate applications of the methods in empirical work as well as further research.

Table of Contents:
1 Introduction.- I Identification of Structural Change.- 2 Recursive M-Tests for the Change-Point Problem.- 3 Recursive vs. OLS Residuals in the CUSUM Test.- 4 Kimball's Inequality and Bounds Tests for Comparing Several Regressions under Heteroscedasticity.- 5 A Further Look at Model Evaluation.- 6 Bayesian Inferences about the Intersection of Two Regressions.- 7 Nonparametric Sequential Surveillance of Intervention Effects in Time Series.- 8 A Monte Carlo Study of the Effects of Structural Breaks on Tests for Unit Roots.- II Model Building in the Presence of Structural Change.- 9 Forecast Encompassing and Model Evaluation.- 10 An Introduction to Time-Varying Parameter Cointegration.- 11 Disequilibrium Modeling, Switching Regressions, and Their Relationship to Structural Change.- 12 Stochastic Trends in Simultaneous Equation Systems.- 13 Time-Varying Nonlinear Regression.- 14 Stability Analysis Using Kaiman Filtering, Scoring, EM, and an Adaptive EM method.- III Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Change.- 15 A Note on Bayesian Forecast Combination Procedures.- 16 A New Approach to Statistical Forecasting.- IV Economic Modeling and the Use of Empirical Data.- 17 The Relation between Economic Growth and Structural Change.- 18 Structural Change in Swedish and Finnish Monthly Industrial Output Series.- 19 On the Estimation of Time-varying Parameters in Transfer Function Models.- 20 Abrupt and Gradual Structural Shifts in State-Space Models.- 21 Structural Changes in the Real GNP Interdependence of the USA, West Germany, and Japan: 1970-1986.- 22 Interactive Poverty and Affluence of a Society: Change-Point Models for Structural Changes.- Author Index.- List of Authors.