Flood Early Warning Systems: Knowledge and Tools for Their Critical Assessment

The research this book is grounded on started with the ambitious intent to understand why FEWSs may fail. However, from the beginning, the objective turned out to be challenging; first, because, so far, there is not a shared opinion on what an EWS is (among both communities of researchers and practitioners); second, as a consequence, because it is equally not clear when an EWS can be considered successful or not. The direct effect of this unclear context was that the research needed primary to face some "open questions" instead of going straight to the point under investigation. Specifically, the identification of what the subject of the analysis is, of which its components and functions are and of which its peculiarities (weak points) are, was primary required. Then, a first attempt to evaluate EWSs performance was possible. This book is organised according to the conceptual steps required by the research. In Chapter 1 preliminary "open questions" about the definition and the role of FEWSs are handled (the aim being the identification of how to evaluate EWSs effectiveness/performance).Chapters 2 to 4 focus on the real aim of the research, providing concepts and practical tools to assess FEWSs performance. Each chapter ends with a common case study describing how above evaluations can be carried out in practice. The focus of this book is flood risk, specifically, in mountain regions. However, most of results can be exported to other hazards as well.

Table of Contents:
Contents Introduction: The idea and the structure of the book Flood mitigation tools and FEWSs; The objective and the structure of the book; Bibliography 1 Basics of early warning 7 The decision-making process during a flood warning; Warning and response: Can the decision-making be futile?; The decision-making problem: a possible framework; The role of uncertainty; The role of responsibility; The role of risk; The "Total Warning System"; The monitoring and forecasting sub-system; The risk information sub-system; The preparedness sub-system; The communication sub-system; A flood warning review; The political and legislative perspective; FEWSs implementation in North America and Europe; FEWSs LoD; Research needs and potential; The current state of EWSs for seismic, tsunami, landslides and volcanic risk; Seismic risk; Tsunami risk; Landslides risk; Volcanic risk; The challenges of flood early warning; Lessons learnt; Seismic risk; Tsunami risk; Landslide risk; Volcanic risk; Conclusions; Bibliography; Suggested lectures; An analysis of four Italian FEWSs; The FEWS for the Piemonte region; The FEWS for the town of Crotone; The FEWS for the Arno river basin; The FEWS for the Adige river basin; Bibliography 2 The role of forecasts Theory: from forecasts accuracy to forecasts quality and value; Flood forecasts quality assessment: a proposed methodology; Implementing the methodology: the case of Sondrio; The flood early warning system; The back analysis; The accuracy assessment; The quality assessment; The value assessment; Results: critical analysis and generalisation; The need of including damages; The need of including time; Conclusions; Bibliography 3 Damage assessment Damages, impacts, losses and costs; The evaluation of flood losses: available tools; Dealing with damage variability: hazard and vulnerability factors; Other challenges in damage assessment; Damage assessment worldwide: a critical overview; Exporting methods: suitable features; Implementing tools: the case of Sondrio; The stakeholder perspective; Damage to buildings; The hazard estimation; The exposure estimation; The damage assessment; Damage to lifelines; The "weight" of neglected components; First-aid, emergency and warning costs; The local database RaSDa; The analysis of data; The damage estimation; Results: discussion and generalisation; The role of scientific uncertainty; Conclusions; Bibliography 4 Warning, emergency management and damage reduction The effects of warning on expected damages; Assessment methods: how actual damages can be evaluated? The "event-tree" approach; Implementing tools: the case of Sondrio; The performance index; The actual damage estimation; The effect of bridge gates; The effect of individual actions; The forecast value assessment; Results: discussion and generalisation; The role of scientific uncertainty; Conclusions; Bibliography; Actual damage estimation: a real implementation of the event-tree approach; The Gippsland flood; The Maitland and Newcastle flood; Final remarks; Bibliography Conclusion: Summary of contents and critical discussion Summary of contents; Critical discussion; Bibliography

About the Author :
Presently post-doc researcher at the Politecnico of Milan, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, her field of expertise is flood risk assessment and management with particular stress on flood damage estimation and its implication for mitigation strategies. She has been involved in several EU funded research in the field of natural hazards, for example the FP 6 Scenario (Support on Common European Strategy for sustainable natural and induced technological hazards mitigation, CN 036979) and the FP 7 Ensure (Enhancing resilience of communities and territories facing natural and na-tech hazards Contr. N. 212045) projects, and cooperates with several Italian authorities responsible for flood risk mitigation (e.g. the Po River Basin District) and management (e.g. local Civil Protection). She also teaches as assistant professor at the course "Emergency Plans for Hydrogeological Risk" at the international program offered by the Politecnico "Civil Engineering for Risk Mitigation Presently associate professor at the Politecnico of Milan, Department of Architecture and Urban Studies, teaching various courses on Risk and Crisis Management, Emergency Planning at the international program offered by the Politecnico, Civil Engineering for Risk Mitigation. She also teaches at the CERG-C Specialisation certificate for the assessment and management of geological and climate related risk at the Geneva University, Switzerland. Field of specialization is technological and natural risks prevention, looking particularly at non-structural measures. Among the latter, a specific stress is given to land use planning and urban development control. She has been involved and has coordinated EU funded research in the field of natural hazards; see for example, the FP 6 Scenario (Support on Common European Strategy for sustainable natural and induced technological hazards mitigation, CN 036979) and the FP 7 Ensure (Enhancing resilience of communities and territories facing natural and na-tech hazards Contr. N. 212045) projects. Presently professor at the Politecnico of Milan, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, he has been head of the M.Sc. Civil Engineering for Risk Mitigation where he teaches hydraulic risk. His research activities cover a wide range of topics in river hydraulics, with special focus on mountain basins: sediment mechanics, morphological effects of floods, scour processes and vulnerability of river structures, environmental monitoring systems, flood risk management. He is associate editor of the Journal of Hydraulic Engineering (ASCE).