Forecasting Urban Travel: Past, Present and Future

Forecasting Urban Travel presents in a non-mathematical way the evolution of methods, models and theories underpinning travel forecasts and policy analysis, from the early urban transportation studies of the 1950s to current applications throughout the urbanized world. From original documents, correspondence and interviews, especially from the United States and the United Kingdom, the authors seek to capture the spirit and problems faced in different eras, as changing information requirements, computing technology and planning objectives conditioned the nature of forecasts. With over 1000 references, the book charts the key ideas relating to land use, travel demand, network costs and flows, and their interactions, from both research and practice to the present states of the art. The authors examine the widening scope and variety of models for analyzing and forecasting personal travel and goods movement, identifying contributions from economics, psychology, geography, regional science, operational research, transportation engineering and mathematics. Finally, they offer their views of the future directions and requirements facing the field. Offering a historical presentation of urban forecasting models covering six decades, accessible to a wide range of students, researchers and planners, this book will be of great interest to undergraduate and graduate students in transportation courses in civil engineering, economics, geography, regional science and planning. Through its discussion of critiques and missed opportunities as travel demand, network and land-use transportation models evolved, the book will also serve as a valuable resource for teachers, academic researchers and practitioners in travel behavior and forecasting.

Table of Contents:
Contents: Preface 1. Introduction 2. Emergence of the Traditional Approach 3. Early Developments in the UK 4. Travel Forecasting based on Discrete Choice Models, I 5. Travel Forecasting based on Discrete Choice Models, II 6. Activity-Based Travel Analysis and Forecasting 7. Transportation Network Equilibrium 8. Tradition and Innovation in US Practice 9. Tradition and Innovation in UK Practice 10. Computing Environment and Travel Forecasting Software 11. Achievements, Current Challenges and Future Prospects 12. Conclusion Index

About the Author :
David E. Boyce, Professor Emeritus, University of Illinois at Chicago, and Adjunct Professor, Northwestern University, US and Huw C.W.L. Williams, Emeritus Professor, Cardiff University, UK

Review :
’Certainly one of the best books ever on transport modelling. We have been waiting for this sort of book for a long time. Anyone who wants to figure out the reasons why different kinds of transport model have been developed during the last 60 years must read this book. It starts at the beginning round about 1953 and it brings the field up to date to 2015 covering many different approaches to models from aggregative gravitational to activity-based and on to agent-based but covering equilibrium, assignment and a host of policy issues that have directed the field over several generations of models and model-builders.’