Predicting the Future in Science, Economics, and Politics

It is a puzzle that while academic research has increased in specialization, the important and complex problems facing humans urgently require a synthesis of understanding. This unique collaboration attempts to address such a problem by bringing together a host of prominent scholars from across the sciences to offer new insights into predicting the future. They demonstrate that long-term trends and short-term incentives need to be understood in order to adopt effective policies, or even to comprehend where we currently stand and the sort of future that awaits us.Developing novel techniques to forecast global conditions, the authors tackle important questions such as: What does the future hold? How can we sustain prosperity? Are we likely to have less war and genocide? Are nuclear weapons destined to spread to unstable countries? What environmental scarcities and conflicts are we likely to face? Each chapter is built around cause and effect relationships based on empirical evidence that creates a unified predictive model of global economic and political conditions. The limits and possibilities of scientific prediction are also explored, as are the physical, biological, and social properties of the global system. This book will have a wide appeal among physical and social scientists interested in the linkages between scientific method and the prediction of future human behavior and global conditions. Contributors: R.D. Alexander, B. Bueno de Mesquita, J.D. Farmer, J. Geanakoplos, J. Holland, S. di Iorio, M.S. Karasik, U. Luterbacher, S.W. Polachek, D. Rohner, G. Schneider, J.D. Singer, D.F. Sprinz, A. Tago, F.W. Wayman, E. Wiegandt, D. Wilkinson, P.R. Williamson, E.O. Wilson

Table of Contents:
Contents: Preface and Introduction: Overview of Why this Book Matters Frank W. Wayman, Paul R. Williamson, Solomon W. Polachek and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita PART I. THE PROMISE OF GLOBAL FORECASTING 1. Scientific Prediction and the Human Condition Frank W. Wayman 2. Organizing Diverse Contributions to Global Forecasting Paul R. Williamson PART II. HUMAN NATURE AND PREDICTION Editors' Introduction to Part II Frank W. Wayman 3. Consilience: the Role of Human Nature in the Emergence of Social Artifacts Edward O. Wilson 4. Darwin's Challenges and the Future of Human Society Richard Alexander PART III. THE VALUE OF THE FUTURE Editors' Introduction to Part III Frank W. Wayman 5. Properly Discounting the Future: Using Predictions in an Uncertain World J. Doyne Farmer and John Geanakoplos 6. Long-Term Policy Problems: Definition, Origins, and Responses Detlef F. Sprinz 7. Explaining and Predicting Future Environmental Scarcities and Conflict Urs Luterbacher, Dominic Rohner and Ellen Wiegandt PART IV. SOME PROBLEMS ADDRESSED VIA MODELING Editors' Introduction to Part IV Frank W. Wayman 8. Forecasting nuclear weapons proliferation: a hazard model Atsushi Tago and J. David Singer 9. Forecasting Political Developments with the Help of Financial Markets Gerald Schneider PART V. THE GLOBAL SYSTEM AND THE POSSIBILITIES OF PREDICTION Editors' Introduction to Part V Frank W. Wayman 10. Glimpses of the Future John Holland 11. Forecasting the Evolution of Cultural Collisions Using Annealing-Nucleation Models Myron S. Karasik 12. Power Structure Fluctuations in the "Longue Durée" of the World System David Wilkinson 13. From Altruism to the Future Frequency of War: How Consilient Explanation Differs from Prediction Frank W. Wayman 14. System Change and Richardson Processes: Application of Social Field Theory Paul R. Williamson 15. Computational Dynamic Modeling of the Global State Space Paul R. Williamson PART VI. NEW APPROACHES 16. Scientific Revolutions and the Advancement of Explanation and Prediction Frank W. Wayman 17. Innovations in Forecasting the Future that One Can Learn from Prediction Solomon W. Polachek 18. Predicting the Future to Shape the Future Bruce Bueno de Mesquita Index

About the Author :
Edited by Frank Whelon Wayman, University of Michigan, Dearborn, US, the late Paul R. Williamson, formerly Global Vision, Inc., US, Solomon Polachek, Binghamton University, SUNY, US and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, New York University, US