War 4.0: Armed Conflict in an Age of Speed, Uncertainty and Transformation

This volume explores the impact of technology and new domains on future warfare. It identifies several themes, and highlights the increasing complexity of the security environment and the uncertainty of future war. The sense of time and speed has been, and is being, compressed by developments in quantum technologies, the cyber domain, artificial intelligence, the increased capabilities of sensors and data collection, as well as new propulsion technologies such as hypersonic designs. Concepts regarding the shape and extent of the battlefield are challenged by the notion of hybrid war and sub-threshold tactics, as well as new domains in which competition is increasing, such as space. Further challenging the shape of the battlefield is the increased development of remote and autonomous warfare. Commercial developments will affect how military production is owned and managed, and how military forces are composed. Thus, a confluence of new technologies exists, combining to create the potential of fundamental transformation at many levels. This wave of technological change has been called the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR), characterised by an exponential rather than a linear rate of change, generated by convergence and complementarity of emerging technology domains. These may not affect the fundamental Clausewitzian nature of war, but they will likely affect its character. From a military perspective, the key will be the impact on the speed of operations and on the shape of the operational domain—the factors of time and space. The combination of these shifts will increasingly affect the perception of states and the degree of certainty in approaching and engaging in conflict.

Table of Contents:
Introduction – Deane-Peter Baker and David Pfotenhauer Accelerated Change— The Evolving Character of Society and Conflict in an Age of Speed, Uncertainty and Transformation – Ian Langford The Democratisation of Technology: Opportunities and Threats – Nadya T Bliss Future Warfare: Developing a Viable Strategy – David Kilcullen Space: Ambiguity, Vulnerability and a Changing Character – Mark Hilborne Space Warfare and Military Power – Malcolm Davis China and Space Warfare – Jian Zhang Quantum Technologies: An Introduction and a Vision of their Impact on War – Marcus Doherty The Distance Paradox: Reaper, the Human Dimension of Remote Warfare and Future Challenges for the Royal Air Force – Peter Lee The Role of an Operational Frame in Furthering the International Debate on Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems – Ian MacLeod and Erin Hahn Lessons from Tradition: Just War, Wisdom and Restraint in a Changing World – Valerie Morkevičius Conclusion – Mark Hilborne Index