Trends and Triggers in the Uyghur Resistance - Subjugation in Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR), Traditional State Conflict and Neighboring State Instability, Terrorism and Insurgency in China

The Uyghurs of Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR) have been subjugated by the PRC since 1949. Efforts to control the population and reform the newly established PRC ultimately strengthened the Uyghur identity and undermined the national interest Mao sought. As a result, a primarily separatist resistance movement formed within Xinjiang. Despite success in controlling the population, the PRC has not addressed the underlying concerns of ethnic minorities due to internal considerations. Consequently, dissatisfaction continues and elements of Uyghur society have turned to more violent measures to bring about change. In response, the PRC has employed increasingly sophisticated and integrated approaches to maintain control in the strategically significant area of Xinjiang. The Uyghur insurgency nearly ascended into the open insurgency phase, however, infighting resulted in the insurgency receding back into the incipient conflict stage. Analysis of trends indicates Uyghurs have failed to unite as a people, organize as a resistance, and have not exploited opportunities. There are two groups of triggers, traditional state conflict and neighboring state instability, which would change the momentum within the Uyghur insurgency in favor of the Uyghurs.This compilation also includes a reproduction of the 2019 Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community.The arid desert of the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, known as East Turkestan by many Uyghurs, has often been at the edge of empires, yet, central to economic trade. Its location along the eastern steppe was crucial to linking the east and west along what later became known as the Silk Road. Prior to 1949, when the People's Republic of China (PRC) established control over Xinjiang Province, the area had been influenced, conquered, or administered by Russia, India, and Persia, in addition to Chinese dynasties. The Uyghur people have experienced periods of varying autonomy, short-term independence, and subjugation since moving into Xinjiang in 840. However, enduring independence has regularly been undermined by internal and external factors. The current state of the Uyghur dilemma lies in their disunity as a people, split between those content with assimilation into the Chinese state, those that desire autonomy, and those that expect independence by any means necessary.