The Wicked Game: Planning for Nonlinear Warfare - Russian and Chinese Hybrid Warfare, Cyber and Information Domain Threats, Ukraine Incursion and South China Sea, Th

As the United States realigns its military ways and means to deter and defeat the nation's near-peer adversaries in large-scale combat operations, the United States must not overlook its adversary's capability to employ nonlinear warfare to achieve political objectives. Both China and Russia are attempting to expand their regional and global influence while countering U.S. global influence. This occurs primarily through the information and cyber domains. The employment of cyber and information technologies provides Russia and China with an asymmetric advantage over the West. Both nations acknowledge the value of the cyber and information domains, which is reflected in emerging Chinese and Russian nonlinear warfare doctrine. The Russian incursion into Ukraine and Chinese activities within the South China Sea provide recent examples of their nonlinear doctrine in action. To assist in meeting these challenges, the U.S. military should consider adapting its operational art framework to assist planners in developing campaign plans that are distinctively suited for defeating nonlinear threats. A planning framework for countering nonlinear threats requires an operational art framework for comprehending these ill-structured problems. Designing campaigns to counter nonlinear warfare - specifically within the cyber and information domains - requires planners to use a "grammar" unique to this type of conflict.This compilation also includes a reproduction of the 2019 Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community.1. Introduction * 2. Literature Review * Defining Nonlinear Warfare * The Nonlinear Operational Environment * Military Planning for Nonlinear Warfare * Operational Art and Design for Complex Problems * 3. Methodology * 4. Case Studies: The Strategic Environment * Russia: Strategic Environment * China: Strategic Environment * Nonlinear Warfare Doctrine: Russian and China * 5. Russia and China in the Information and Cyber Domains * Russia: Information Domain * Russia: Cyber Domain * China: Information Domain * China: Cyber Domain * 6. Conclusion: Comparing Russian and Chinese Nonlinear WarfareAs the United States realigns its military ways and means to deter and defeat the nation's near-peer adversaries in LSCO, the U.S. must not overlook its adversary's capability to employ nonlinear warfare to achieve political objectives. The 2017 U.S. National Security Strategy asserts that China and Russia "challenge American power, influence, and interests" while attempting to "make economies less free and less fair, to grow their militaries, and to control information and data to repress their societies and expand their influence." China and Russia are endeavoring to expand their regional and global influence while making attempts to counter the West's global power. This is occurring primarily through the information and cyber domains. For certain, both China and Russia are growing in military force structure while modernizing their military hardware. However, the United States must not ignore or fail to prepare for the nonlinear threat that each competitor continues to pose to the West. Russia's 2014 incursion into Ukraine demonstrated its unique ability to combine conventional and unconventional warfare to achieve political objectives. The swift seizure of Crimea and portions of eastern Ukraine shocked the West as Russia applied mostly unconventional means to overwhelm Ukrainian resistance. Russia's use of hybrid warfare in Ukraine reflects an evolution and growth of Russian nonlinear warfare since the beginning of the twenty-first century.