Assessing Russia's Actions in Ukraine and Syria, 2014–2022: Implications for the Changing Character of War

What do Russia’s actions in Ukraine and Syria, particularly between 2014 and 2022 tell us about the character of modern conflict? Do these actions indicate change or continuity? What linkages are there between Russia’s approaches to warfare today with those before, during, and after the Soviet era? Assessing Russia's Actions in Ukraine and Syria, 2014–2022: Implications for the Changing Character of War investigates how Russia’s actions in Syria and Ukraine reveal more continuity than change and more evolution than revolution in warfare. These actions mostly reflect what the Kremlin perceives as changes in strategic and technological contexts, which impacts who fights wars and how wars are fought. Given historic, cultural, and other ties between Russia and Ukraine, Russia’s activities in Ukraine prior to 2022 are not easily replicable outside of the post-Soviet space. This book argues that new-generation warfare, political warfare, or full-spectrum conflict better describes Russia’s activities than hybrid warfare. John A. Pennell addresses critical gaps in research by considering the totality of Russia’s actions and gleaning insights from those directly involved with aspects of Russia’s interventions.

Table of Contents:
Acknowledgments Introduction Chapter 1: The Changing Character of War Chapter 2: Russian Perspectives Chapter 3: Assessing Russia’s Actions in Ukraine Chapter 4: Assessing Russia’s Actions in Syria Conclusion Appendix: List of Field Interviews Glossary Bibliography About the Author

About the Author :
John A. Pennell, PhD,is a US diplomat and Senior Foreign Service Officer.

Review :
Pennell offers a timely and thorough examination of Russian approaches to competition and war. Essential reading for those who are trying to make sense of Russian power and actions on the world stage. “Whenever the Russian government has used military force in the 21st century — in Chechnya, in Georgia, in Ukraine, in Syria, in Kazakhstan, in Nagorno-Karabakh, and in several African countries — Western observers have been wont to claim that the nature of warfare is changing. Is that really the case? John A. Pennell addresses this question by looking closely at Russian military operations in Ukraine and Syria from 2014 through 2022. Military force was only one of the elements used by Russian leaders to pursue their objectives in those two countries, but Pennell makes clear that it was a dominant part of Moscow’s policies vis-à-vis neighboring and distant regions of the world alike. In both Ukraine and Syria, the Russian armed forces deployed new technologies and tested operational innovations that could be adapted elsewhere, but their efforts at times were strikingly unsuccessful. Even if the nature of warfare has not changed as much as some have alleged, Pennell provides an excellent survey of the alterations that have occurred. Anyone who wants to understand the future of Russia’s approach to warfare should read this well-written, thoroughly researched book.” Pennell's book is a great contribution to the debate on how to understand Russian modern warfare. In particular, it provides a distinct empirical depth to a debate that has often lacked such. Moreover, it captures the nuances, synergies and anatomy of how the Russian regime is using new and old tools in its warfare. “For more than a decade policy makers and other security experts have been arguing over the character and even the definition of so-called ‘hybrid warfare,’ in which Russia, among others, blends regular and irregular combat, along with other instruments of influence such as disinformation, religion, and foreign electoral interference to advance it interests. The value of this outstanding book is that it clearly accounts for all these developments, from the Russian involvement in Syria to its invasions of Ukraine, from cyberattacks globally to battlefields in Ukraine that resemble the killing fields of World War I. This way of war is not so new, Pennell argues. Russia’s actions reflect more continuity than change in warfare and more evolution than revolution. What has changed are the strategic and technological contexts. As we consider the course of the Ukraine war and how (and whether) Russia will move elsewhere, this volume will be an essential guide.” “John Pennell's Assessing Russia’s Actions in Ukraine and Syria, 2014-2022: Implications for the Changing Character of War discusses areas of continuity and change in Russian military doctrine. In his comprehensive study, Pennell shows that the limited military conflict with Ukraine between 2014 and 2022 represents continuity with previous trends in Russian warfighting, while Russia's operation in Syria that began in 2015 represents an opportunity to test not just new equipment, but also new tactics. These include the "growing use of non-kinetic tools, an increased role of non-state actors and proxies, a blurring of lines between war and peace, and actions that promote plausible deniability and may evoke less than a military response." In discussing Russian threat perceptions, he highlights Russian perceptions that their aggressive actions are really defensive against Western moves to foment conflict. This book provides one of the most comprehensive analyses of shifts and continuities in Russian warfighting strategy over the last ten years.” “John A. Pennell has skillfully woven the knowledge about the changing character of war with the analysis of Russia’s full-spectrum conflict. Assessing Russia’s Actions in Ukraine and Syria is a valuable reference and an original contribution to our thinking about Russia’s ways of conducting war, the conceptual lens that we attach to Moscow’s actions, and the context that shapes its warfare thinking.”