Models, Methods and Applications of Econometrics

This volume brings together twenty essays in econometrics which were written especially to honour Professor A.R. Bergstrom on the occasion of his 65th birthday. The essays cover a wide field of recent and topical research, dealing with both theory and applications. The contributors comprise an international and distinguished group of economists, econometricians, modellers and statisticians. As a result, the volume should be of interest to a wide audience of economists and statisticians involved in modelling, forecasting and other applications of econometrics. The volume is divided into five parts, according to separate themes of research that include dynamic econometric modelling, continuous time modelling, finite sample theory and empirical applications in macroeconomics, industry and finance. The volume is completed by a review of Rex Bergstrom's own research in these various fields, an interview and a short but lucid essay on the nature of econometrics by Bergstrom himself.

Table of Contents:
List of Contributors vii

Preface viii

Acknowledgments ix

Announcement

The A. R. Bergstrom Prize in Econometrics
V. B. Hall and P. C. B. Phillips xi

Part I: The Contributions of A. R. Bergstrom to Econometrics

1. Rex Bergstrom's Career and Research 3
Peter C. B. Phillips

2. What is Econometrics? 9
A. R. Bergstrom

3. The ET Interview: A. R. Bergstrom 12
Interviewed by Peter C. B. Phillips

4. The Publications of A. R. Bergstrom 32

Part II: Continuous-Time Models

5. Forecasting with Continuous-Time and Discrete-Time Series Models: An Empirical Comparison 37
Marcus J. Chambers

6. Estimation, Smoothing, Interpolation, and Distribution for Structural Time-Series Models in Continuous Time 55
A. C. Harvey and James H. Stock

7. Continuous-Time Models in Econometrics: Closed and Open Systems, Stocks and Flows 71
Peter M. Robinson

8. Estimation of Nonlinear Continuous-Time Models from Discrete Data 91
Clifford R. Wymer

Part III: Finite-Sample Theory

9. Some Further Exact Results for Structural Equation Estimators 117
Grant H. Hillier and Christopher L. Skeels

10. Operational Algebra and Regression t-Tests 140
Peter C. B. Phillips

11. Multiple Comparisons Emphasizing Incremental Effects 153
J. Richmond

12. Some Alternatives to the Edgeworth Approximation for Econometric Statistics 165
J. D. Sargan

13. The Finite-Sample Properties of Cointegration Estimators with Applications to Testing 176
Glenn Ellison and Stephen E. Satchell

Part IV: Dynamic Econometric Modeling

14. Reference Cycles in the Time and Frequency Domains: Duality Aspects of the Business Cycle 201
Roger J. Bowden and Vance L. Martin

15. Estimating Linear Quadratic Models with Integrated Processes 220
Allan W. Gregory, Adrian R. Pagan and Gregor W. Smith

16. Reducing Parameter Numbers in Econometric Modeling 240
E. J. Hannan

17. Semiparametric Efficiency Bounds for Linear Time-Series Models 253
Lars P. Hansen

18. Evaluating Dynamic Econometric Models by Encompassing the VAR 272
David F. Hendry and Grayham E. Mizon

19. Empirical Implications of Arbitrage-free Asset Markets 301
S. Maheswaran and Christopher A. Sims

20. Rational Expectations and Integrated Variables 317
Michael R. Wickens

Part V: Empirical Applications

21. The Stochastic Behavior of Mineral-Commodity Prices 339
Terence D. Agbeyegbe

22. Continuous-Time Econometric Modeling and the Issue of Capital Liberalization 354
Giancarlo Gandolfo and Pier Carlo Padoan

23. Economies of Scale in the New Zealand Electricity Distribution Industry 370
David E. A. Giles and Nicolas S. Wyatt

24. Long-run Equilibrium Estimation and Inference: A Nonparametric Application 383
V. B. Hall and R. G. Trevor

Index 403