That Doesn’t Work Anymore: Retooling Investment Economics in the Age of Disruption

Economic measures and concepts like GDP, inflation, business cycles and supply chains that were created decades ago are being disrupted and altered by technology. These changes affect asset values, interest rates, stock valuations, barriers to entry, as well as regression and correlation analysis. That Doesn’t Work Anymore discusses how to adapt traditional data to these changes and outlines ways to use newer and better tools that help you make good investment and business decisions. The book's short pragmatic chapters grouped by topic with research and real-life anecdotes delve into how technological and societal developments have changed the meaning and value of traditional economic data-points, predictive tools, and business concepts. Robert S. Kricheff provides specifics on new and more valuable data sources as well as better methods for applying the information to investing, business, and even your career.

Table of Contents:

Your Economic Thought Patterns Need to Change

2. Ignore the Averages – Means Move
4. Disrupters or Just Progress
6. Cultural Changes Make Economics Change
8. Cultural Impact of the Great Recession
10. Everyone Needs to Change How They Measure Things- Always
12. Rethink Correlations and Resist Regression
14. Goodhart’s "Underappreciated" Law

15. Big Economic Data-points

16. GDP - Revisions, Central Banks and Why It Is So Useless
18. Is Growth the Right Economic Measure
20. Is Growth the Right Financial Measure
22. Unemployment Versus New Employment
24. Wages are Different Now
26. Inflation – It Can Help, It can Hurt – But it is Definitely Not the Same as it Was
28. Interest Rates and Falsehoods
30. Currencies – Chicken & Egg
32. The Asset Value Magic Trick – Stocks, Real Estate, Gold, Bitcoin Etc.
34. Expectations Theories – Always Changing, Always Relevant

35. Applying Changes in Big Economic Data to Investing and Business

    Old Capital, New Capital

36. The New Role of Capital/Capital Formation
38. Capital Flow Data is Dangerous
40. Follow The Money or Fail
42. Human Capital – The Real Data to Watch
44. Capital, Political Structure and Aristotle

45. Applying Changes in Capital Flows to Decisions in Investing, Business and Career

    What Government Does to Economics

46. Government’s Role: Past and Future
48. Funding Government – Rethink It
50. Taxes – Good, Bad and Completely Lost
52. Expense Management and The Government – A Misnomer?
54. Factoring Modern Government Into Economic Decisions
56. More Grey and Purple -Government’s Ability to Function

57. Government’s Role Today and Its Impact on planning your Investing, Business and Career

    Financial and Business Data is Different Now and It Has Always Been That Way

58. Business Structures – Think Again
60. Business Investment What People Watch and What You Should Watch
62. Business Cycle Theory and Why Its Wrong
64. Tearing Down and Running Around the Barriers to Entry
66. Supply Chains and Pasta
68. Energy and Fossilized Ideas
70. Measure of Trade and Fools
72. Measures of Globalization: What to Watch and Why It Matters
74. The Problem With Earnings Reports and Expectations
76. The Invisible Consumer: Customer Retention Data , Big Data and Customer Service
78. How Not to Measure A Company’s Success

79. Revaluating The Way to Look At Business for Investing, Business and Career

    Value, Risk and Investment Metrics

80. What are Things Worth Right Now
82. Money Do We Need to Change How We Count It
84. Hard Assets with Soft Valuations
86. Does Volatility Matter
88. Value at Risk – Real or Fantasy
90. Other Measures: Risk Premiums, P/E Ratios and All That
92. Regression, Extrapolation and Historical Averages
94. Projections are So Yesterday , Probability is So Today

95. Using Better Value and Risk Metrics in investing, business and your career

    Random & Concluding Topics

96. New Industries and What to Do About Them
98. Emerging Economies – New Paths or Same Old Cycles
100. Socially Responsible Investing /Environmental, Social and Governance Factors (SRI/ESG)
102. Economic Activism
104. Trend Watching and Catching

Never Close Your Eyes, or You Will Miss Something

Robert S. Kricheff is Senior Vice President, Portfolio Manager, and Global Strategist at Shenkman Capital, a global money management company. He regularly writes on markets and economics for the firm. Prior to joining Shenkman he was Head of High Yield Sector Strategy at Credit Suisse. Robert has a bachelors from New York University in Economics and Journalism and a masters from the University of London in Financial Economics. He has published two books and two e-books on investment analysis.

My first speech on Wall Street in 1969 was titled "The Best Investor Is a Social Scientist." After reading Bob's enlightening assessment of how to successfully navigate markets during this time of rapid transition and disruption, I'm confident that my thesis is as true today as it was then. That Doesn't Work Anymore is as valuable a tool for understanding how the world is changing as it is a guide for investors, business leaders and money managers to apply a broader scope and more rigor to work.

--Michael Milken, Chairman, Milken Institute

Kricheff explains why so many of the broadly used economic and financial tools need to be reconsidered in the face of rapid technological change. That Doesn't Work Anymore highlights the unique challenges that industries and companies face as technology changes the world--particularly in the emerging markets.

--Eraj Shirvani, Credit Suisse AG, Vice Chairman - Emerging Markets

Bob Kricheff is the Malcolm Gladwell of investing. He rightly forces you to question the stalwart theories and rules of economics during a time where technological disruption across all industries has become the norm. That Doesn't Work Any More analyzes everything from Keyes vs. Hayek to the impact of music streaming, and even the food industry. It is a must read for anyone serious about capturing alpha in a rapidly changing economic landscape.

--Judy Joo, Chef, restaurateur, TV personality, and author

An entertaining and enlightening book that expertly questions the status quo of investment economics during this present period of rapid technological innovation. Bob challenges core economic assumptions and provides a great, and often humorous, guide for navigating investments through an environment of constant disruption. Well done Bobby K!

--Patrick Dyson, Partner, GoldenTree Asset Management

We are surrounded by data, and we must learn to use new forms of information to make better decisions. That Doesn't Work Any More illustrates how modern technology has changed the data we use, and the context for how we use it. This book is a helpful guide of novel ways to analyze the economy and our businesses.

--Charles Rivkin, Chairman and CEO, Motion Picture Association of America (MPAA)

Business in the 21st century requires a different lens to interpret trends and construct approaches to investment and management. That Doesn't Work Anymore is a splendid prism through which economic data and developments can be viewed and understood. Robert Kricheff has written a clear and concise volume that frames economic concepts in a contemporary light. It is easy to read with robust examples that enrich one's understanding of particular topics. His insights are entertaining and invaluable.

--Robert I. Grossman, M.D., The Saul J. Farber Dean and Chief Executive Officer, NYU Langone Health