Iran’s Nuclear Hedging Strategy: Shaping the Islamic Republic’s Proliferation Calculus

Tehran’s willingness to pause aspects of its nuclear program may offer opportunities to stroke regime concerns about the potential costs of moving forward. Since halting its crash nuclear weapons program in 2003, the Islamic Republic has pursued a cautious hedging strategy that has enabled it to become an advanced nuclear threshold state, while also avoiding a military confrontation with the United States and Israel. Yet Iran’s willingness to pause aspects of its nuclear program in order to ease pressure—and in turn to pursue more urgent objectives—may help Washington constrain Tehran’s nuclear ambitions by amplifying its concerns about the potential risks and costs of proliferating. In this Policy Focus, military analyst Michael Eisenstadt surveys the evolution of Iran’s nuclear hedging strategy and suggests ways for the United States, along with its allies and partners, to shape the regime’s proliferation calculus with the goal of preventing an Iranian breakout and a nuclearized Middle East.

Table of Contents:
List of Figures Acknowledgments Glossary and Abbreviations Executive Summary 1. Introduction 2. Iran in Context: Nuclear Hedging, Reversal, and Rollback 3. Iran’s Proliferation Calculus: Risks, Costs, Benefits 4. Policy Recommendations: Shaping the Islamic Republic’s Proliferation Calculus 5. Conclusion Index

About the Author :
Michael Eisenstadt is the Kahn Fellow and director of the Military and Security Studies Program at The Washington Institute. A specialist in Persian Gulf and Arab-Israel security affairs, he has published widely on both irregular and conventional warfare as well as nuclear weapons proliferation in the Middle East. He served for twenty-six years as an officer in the U.S. Army Reserve with active-duty stints in Iraq, Israel, and Turkey. His recent publications include Deterring Iran in the Gray Zone: Insights from Four Decades of Conflict and Beyond Forever Wars and Great Power Competition: Rethinking the U.S. Military Role in the Middle East, both published by The Washington Institute in 2021.