Understanding a Changing World: The Alternative Futures of the International System

The world is becoming more complex, fraught with increasing possibilities for conflict over national rivalries, economic competition, and cultural and ideological fault lines. Understanding a Changing World: Alternative Futures of the International System offers a structured and theoretically grounded way to think about the forces that animate change and the alternative futures they may create. The existing widely-used textbooks in international relations and global studies do not adequately address this need. At best they offer a concluding chapter on what might come next, usually citing a few key works, most of which are listed below. Some build upon the conventional paradigms of the realist, liberal, or constructivist approaches to extrapolate possible futures. The former approach usually produces a hit-and-miss view of the future, while the latter builds on familiar paradigms which are too general to lead to detailed analysis or specific future scenarios.

Table of Contents:
1: Understanding a Changing World: The Future(s) of the International System Why Future(s)? What Is an International System? What Is a Paradigm? Building Analytic Paradigms and Alternative Futures Paradigms in the Social Sciences Realism, Liberalism, and Constructivism The Four Paradigms What Comes Next? 2: The Nation-State Paradigm The Paradigm The Possible Futures A Hegemonic World A New Balance of Power in a Bipolar or Limited Multipolar World A Stable Multipolar World An Unstable Multipolar World 3: The Economic Paradigm The Paradigm The Possible Futures Globalization Advances Globalization Amended and Reconfigured Mercantilism 2.0 Toward Autarky, with a Touch of Anarchy 4: The Identity and Culture Paradigm The Paradigm The Possible Futures The Gradual Emergence of a Global Identity and Culture The Identity and Culture Paradigm Merges with the Nation-State Paradigm The Creation of an International System Based on the “Clash of Civilizations” 5: The Ideology Paradigm The Paradigm The Possible Futures A Universalistic and Humanistic Ideology Emerges Ideological Conflict Reemerges “National Ideology” Becomes the Dominant Fusion of National Identity and Ideology Populism Becomes the Dominant Paradigm Sources of Stability and Instability What Would a Populist World Look Like? 6: Where Do You Go from Here? What Have You Learned? How Many Alternative Futures Have We Created? How Can You Use This Framework? Index About the Author

About the Author :
Donald R. Kelley is professor of political science at the University of Arkansas, where he has taught international relations and comparative politics since 1980. He also served as a senior research fellow and then as director of the Fulbright Institute of International Relations.