Predictable Winners: A Handbook for Developing, Forecasting, and Launching New Products and Services

A USA Today Bestseller A leading global consulting firm on how to achieve new product launch success rates far above industry averages. New product launches are risky. But disciplined innovation practices lead to success rates well above industry benchmarks. Predictable Winners is a comprehensive handbook of best practices for improving the odds of success at every step of the innovation journey—from concept development through commercial launch and beyond. Product leaders, innovation teams, and senior executives will find practical insights to reduce product risk and improve R&D effectiveness and ROI, while delighting customers with a pipeline of compelling new products and services. The authors' systematic approach is covered step-by-step in twenty-five chapters on topics like assembling the right team, identifying innovation opportunities, conducting a disciplined, data-driven assessment of a new product's revenue potential, making wise investment decisions, and more. Predictable Winners also details how to use quantitative tools to disaggregate and reduce the distinct risks around competing product concepts, customer segments, channels, pricing, and launch planning. Finally, because not all breakthrough innovation comes from internal teams, the authors also explain advanced strategies for improving the odds of success: balancing organic innovation with external acquisitions or licensing.

Table of Contents:
Acknowledgments Part I: Configuring for Success 1. Use a Systematic Approach to Beat the Odds Why Investing in New Products Is so Difficult and so Important How Risk and Uncertainty Can Be Systematically Managed The Benefits of a Systematic Approach Who This Book Is For and What You'll Find Inside How Did We Come to Be Leading This Tour? 2. Manage Risks by Evaluating Multiple Indicators of Success Benefits and Challenges of Fast Fail Innovation Barriers to Change for Established Companies Lack of Resources for Entrepreneurs and Emerging Businesses The Catch-22 of New Product Investing 3. Avoid the Seven Behaviors that Reduce the Odds for Many Innovators Overrelying on Intuition, Rather Than Objective Evidence Rushing into New Areas Where You Have No Right to Win Fearing Failure If Products Are Not "Absolutely Perfect" Prioritizing Product Features over Customer Needs and Solutions Focusing Only on the Short Term or the Long Term Trying to Own It All Failing to Flex Part II: Developing Product and Service Concepts 4. Look for What's Broken, Who's Not Being Served, and How to Leverage Your Strengths What's Broken? Who's Not Being Served? How Is Your Company Special? The "Edge Strategy": Leveraging Unique Capabilities 5. Take Advantage of Direct Market Feedback and Rapid Prototypes The Value of Early Market Feedback Benefit from Lean Development and Low-Cost Prototyping Leverage a Variety of Early Signals to Assess Potential 6. Embrace Continuous Upgrades and Lean Development for Digital-Led Businesses Design Sprint for New Concept Development Trialing the User Experience Proof of Concept for AI Products Use Platform Customers for B2B Solutions Manage Risks for B2B Customers Network Benefits for Digital Businesses A Special Context for Innovation: Leaner, Faster, and Networked 7. Move Up the Detect-Analyze-Act Pyramid to Enrich Products Using Digital Applying the Framework: Collins Aerospace Detect, Analyze, and Act Create Effective Digital Customer Connections 8. Use a Start-Up Mindset for Breakthrough Innovation in Large Companies Build a Dedicated Team Balance Risks and Rewards for Team Members Allow Accelerated Decision-Making with Guardrails Define Clear Milestones and Tie Budgets to Achieving Them Example of Breakthrough Innovation Challenges at a Large Corporation Be Aware of the Challenges of Corporate Venture Capital Alignment and Investment Part III: Forecasting Revenue 9. Build a Business Case to Avoid the Product Graveyard The Five Elements of a Robust Business Case Avoid the Product Graveyard 10. Size the Prize and Identify the Customers You Will Win Define a "Big Enough" Market Opportunity Identify Growth Tailwinds Segment the Universe of Potential Customers Build a Customer Runway 11. Gather Customer Insights, Not "Voice of Customer" Know Your Tools for Market Insights Get Full Value from Market Interviews Know How and When to Use Surveys Derive Insights, Not Data 12. Never Take Market Research at Face Value Getting Adoption Estimates Right Pressure Test with Analogs and Triangulations 13. Assume Your Competitors Are at Least as Smart as You Are Define Your Current and Future Competitive Set Understand Your Competitors and Their Advantages and Disadvantages Use Wargaming to Predict and Prepare for Competitive Responses 14. Price to Unlock the Full Value of Your Innovation Price to Win the War, Not the Battle Always Start with Value Select the Right Pricing Model Determine Your Pricing Strategy 15. Build a High-Confidence Revenue Forecast The Fundamentals of Building Revenue Forecasts Develop Your Model Methodology Defining Adoption Curves Adjusting for Competitive Impacts Assessing Risk with the 3S's: Sensitivities, Scenarios, and Simulation The "What You Have to Believe" Sense Check 16. Create a Bulletproof Business Case Put the Case Together with a Strong Narrative Define Your Ask Framing Your Ask for Your Audience Part IV: Ensuring Commercial Success 17. Identify and Lower the Biggest Barriers to Adoption Understand How Customers Buy and Which Stakeholders Will Matter Proactively Overcome Expected Adoption Barriers Learning from Uber 18. Plan Enough but Not Too Much The Importance of a Goldilocks Launch Plan Creating a "Living" Launch Plan 19. Take the Shortest Path to Value, Not to Market "Go Big or Go Home" Launches Limited Launches and the Art of the Lean Launch Tradeoffs of Direct vs. Distributor Channels Manage Channels, Don't Let Them Manage You 20. Prime the Organization for a Successful Launch Organizational Priorities for Start-Ups Organizational Priorities for Established Companies Importance of Building Internal Alliances Organizational Best Practices for Launch Part V: Creating Long-Term Value 21. Turn a Single Success into an Enduring Franchise Five Areas Where Many Companies Fall Short The Challenge of Going Beyond the First Product The Value of a Multi-Platform Product Plan 22. Make Use of Acquisitions and Partnerships to Accelerate Innovation Value The Five-Point Framework The Power of Partnerships Breaking New Ground: A Nonprofit Enterprise Bets on a New Subsidiary 23. Embrace Proven Pathways for Long Lead-Time Innovation Managing Your Business as a Series of Inflection Points A Different Pathway: Aviation Balancing High-Risk, Long-Term Innovation with Near-Term Wins 24. Use Incremental Developments to Complement Breakthrough Innovation Incremental Innovation: What's Required? Incremental and Breakthrough: Conflicting Imperatives? The Role of Execution in Determining Whether a Product Becomes a Breakthrough Incentives in Large Organizations Innovation Challenges for Large Organizations 25. Turn Gaps into Strengths for Start-Ups and Entrepreneurs How Entrepreneurs Can Turn Weaknesses into Strengths Configure to Maximize Advantages Knowing When to Exit or Find a Partner Appendix 1: Tools for Market Research Appendix 2: Real-World Data Resources to Complement Market Research Appendix 3: Estimating Purchase Intent Appendix 4: Revenue Modeling Best Practices Notes Index

About the Author :
Stuart Jackson led L.E.K. Consulting as Global Managing Partner and now serves as Vice Chair. He has worked with hundreds of clients who have enjoyed higher growth, increased their profit margins in existing businesses, added scores of new services and products, and completed more than 100 merger and acquisition transactions. He is a past recipient of Consulting Magazine's Top 25 Consultants award. He is the author of the highly acclaimed book Where Value Hides: A New Way to Uncover Profitable Growth for Your Business (Wiley, 2006) and has contributed to The Wall Street Journal, The Journal of Business Strategy and Harvard Business Review.Ilya Trakhtenberg is a Managing Director with L.E.K. Consulting and a leading partner in its healthcare practice. In his 15 years with L.E.K., he has led hundreds of engagements with a wide range of corporate and private equity clients to develop and launch innovative new products, accelerate business growth, and deliver superior investment returns. He has published more than a dozen journal articles, serves as a regular speaker at industry conferences, and founded L.E.K.'s MedTech Launch Center of Excellence. Ilya is also a past recipient of M&A Advisor's Emerging Leaders Award and a board member of L.E.K.'s global Sustainability Centre of Excellence.

Review :
"Success today is often about which teams can change and innovate the fastest. This book will help organizations get new products right the first time. It should be a cornerstone of management development programs." —Paul Walsh, Chairman McLaren Group "...a menu of options to optimize your chances of winning with new innovations. The framework in this book will help you move faster, be smarter in defining the market and the potential upside, and execute with confidence to increase your chances of success." —Ania Smith, CEO, TaskRabbit "This is how investors want their CEOs to think. When does a team seek input into product/market fit? Not just at the outset, but every day along the way. When does a team stop pressure-testing the product concept against the market need? Never. When does a product owner stop listening? Never. The lessons provided by the authors are practical, applicable, and invaluable." —Paul LaViolette, Managing Partner, SV Health Investors, former COO Boston Scientific "One thing I really like about this book is its strategic approach to both internal product development and acquisition of innovative new platforms. Few organizations combine both effectively." —Kevin Mayer, CEO Candle Media, Former CEO TikTok "Provides a great framework for those of us involved in early-stage product platform development as we make the tough calls on where to place our investment bets." —Paul K. Wooton, Adjunct Professor, Rice Bioengineering & Exec Director Rice Biotech Launch Pad