About the Book
In Israel, pilot trainees who were praised for doing well subsequently performed worse, while trainees who were yelled at for doing poorly performed better. It is an empirical fact that highly intelligent women tend to marry men who are less intelligent. Students who get the highest scores in third grade generally get lower scores in fourth grade.And yet, it's wrong to conclude that screaming is not more effective in pilot training, women choose men whose intelligence does not intimidate them, or schools are failing third graders. In fact, there's one reason for each of these empirical facts: Statistics. Specifically, a statical concept called Regression to the Mean.Regression to the mean seeks to explain, with statistics, the role of luck in our day to day lives. An insufficient appreciation of luck and chance can wreak all kinds of mischief in sports, education, medicine, business, politics, and more. It can lead us to see illness when we are not sick and to see cures when treatments are worthless. Perfectly natural random variation can lead us to attach meaning to the meaningless.Freakonomics showed how economic calculations can explain seemingly counterintuitive decision-making. Thinking, Fast and Slow, helped readers identify a host of small cognitive errors that can lead to miscalculations and irrational thought. In What the Luck?, statistician and author Gary Smith sets himself a similar goal, and explains--in clear, understandable, and witty prose--how a statistical understanding of luck can change the way we see just about every aspect of our lives...and can help us learn to rely less on random chance, and more on truth.
About the Author :
Gary Smith is the Fletcher Jones Professor of Economics at Pomona College in Claremont, California. He has written (or co-authored) ten books and seventy-five academic papers on finance, sports, and statistical pitfalls. His research has been featured in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Forbes, Motley Fool, Newsweek and BusinessWeek. He was a guest speaker on CNBC, and a keynote speaker at the Brookings Institution in Washington DC and the Mortgage Finance Industry Summit in New York City. He received his B.A. in Mathematics with Honors from Harvey Mudd College and his Ph.D. in Economics from Yale University.
Review :
As a lifelong sports fan I've always been puzzled by a phenomenon in which a team wins a championship and, after failing to repeat the next season, everyone from fans to management looks for what went wrong and begins trading players and changing strategies, thereby dooming the team to do even worse the season after. Gary Smith has solved this puzzle, and many more in all walks of life, through the concept of regression to the mean, one of the most powerful and least understood factors in how things turn out in life. You will not look at the world the same after reading this illuminating book.--Michael Shermer, publisher of Skeptic magazine, columnist for Scientific American, and author of The Moral Arc and Why People Believe Weird Things
Humans are prone to search and 'find' causal drivers of the events that shape our lives. In reality, we are impacted by chance more often than we think. Professor Smith uses simple reasoning and vivid examples to help us decipher truth from fiction, thereby helping us to make better decisions.--Bryan White, Founder, Sahsen Ventures
In clear, entertaining prose and the use of telling, useful, and even charming examples, Smith dissects one of the most fundamental principles of how the world works--and how our intuitions often fail to catch on. Anyone who wants to think more clearly and act more rationally will profit from reading this book.--Tom Gilovich, author of How We Know What Isn't So
Regression toward the mean is the key to the universe. Of course, learning about this is both a blessing and a curse. Once people have digested this book, they will absolutely see regression everywhere and understand its effect, but they will also be driven crazy, as you undoubtedly are, when they hear all of the unsupported and sometimes absurd explanations people cling to in order to make sense of it.--Jay Cordes, Data Scientist
Smith provides a fascinating and accessible overview of regression toward the mean in sports and other domains. If you play fantasy sports, you should go get a copy of this book at once (while hoping your competitors have not done likewise).--Alan Reifman, author of Hot Hand: The Statistics Behind Sports' Greatest Streaks
Decision makers everywhere should read it to avoid making the mistakes of their predecessors.--Andrew Gelman, Professor of Statistics and Political Science, Director of the Applied Statistics Center at Columbia University
Read this book. Then give it to your family and friends. There is no other single idea that will better improve your understanding of the world, and judgment of the future, than regression-to-the-mean. Drawing on education, health, politics, business, and sports, Smith shows us how others have gotten it wrong and how you can get it right.--Cade Massey, Professor, Wharton School of Business
Smith uses a wide variety of real-life examples to illustrate why conventional wisdom often fails to acknowledge that one of the most important ingredients is luck.--Karl J. Meyer, Director of Strategy, Hewlett Packard Enterprise
Smith uses entertaining and intuitive examples to show how regression to the mean explains patterns in education, business, and medicine.--Anita Arora, MD, MBA, RWJF Clinical Scholar at Yale University
Vagaries of chance are part of our lives, whether we like it or not. WHAT THE LUCK? presents serious stuff in an eminently readable and entertaining manner. Using colorful examples, it teaches humility for good fortune and hope after misfortune. A wonderful read!--Cristian Calude, Professor of Applied Science, University of Auckland
The beauty of this book is it sheds light on the need for humility when one experiences good fortune, and the importance of hope after misfortune. This nuanced understanding will help readers make better decisions in all realms of their lives.--Jonathan Abelson, MD, radiation oncologist
What The Luck? is a tremendously entertaining and revealing read. A quick and engrossing piece of work, it is a must read for those who approach the world with educated insight! Two thumbs up!--Simeon Nestorov, CFA, Managing Director, Berkeley Square Inc.
What the Luck? is a valuable arrow of sobering knowledge to keep in your quiver at all times.
