Dynamical Systems Theory and School Change

This dissertation, "Dynamical Systems Theory and School Change" by Pak-hoi, Isaac, Tse, 謝伯開, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. Abstract: DST Abstract of thesis entitled Dynamical Systems Theory and School Change Submitted by TSE Pak Hoi Isaac for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at The University of Hong Kong in August 2006 In this study I address the inadequacy of traditional systems theory to explain chaotic changes in educational reality and counteract the limitation of chaos theory as a retrospective instrument for the interpretative analysis of change. I contend that when the process in the systems theory schema is not being assumed as a black box or a non-autonomous teleology between input and output, it is possible to identify much richer possibilities for change outcomes, including surprises. Chaos theory attempts to explain these surprises, but gives disappointing results because of its retrospective nature of analysis. By rationalising 'process' as a variety of framed transient structures based on a refreshed interpretation of time and identifying characteristics that match a multiple decision point autonomous system model, it is possible to treat dynamical systems theory as an extension of traditional systems theory. The new interpretation is capable of depicting social systems beyond the constraints of chaos theory. The research context of this study is the domain of school improvement, which is a clear declaration of intended change in the school context. I start from the premise that an understanding of change in schools that is based on the traditional systems theory is inadequate, because the theory is founded on the assumption of the stability of schools, an assumption that does not match the unpredictability of school change in reality. By assuming that 'process' in the systems theory schema is a function of time and context, and that there is always more than one emergent driving factor to direct change, an instrument is developed to screen scenarios using the dynamical aspect of the i DST dynamical systems theory model. A framework for using this dynamical systems model to forecast the change trajectory is further constructed. I use theoretical induction, derivations of mathematical models of chaos and complexity and their metaphorical lessons to shed light on the phenomenon of surprise in well-intentioned school reform. The metaphorical use of the characteristics of complex dynamical systems, taking rational values in social systems to be equivalent to energy inputs in physical systems and cultural and social attractors to be equivalent to strange attractors, offers a new understanding of chaos in critical incidents. From these results I conclude that dynamical systems theory is a better model for planning to improve schools holistically, because it allows the consideration of the interactive evolution of multi-dimensional concerns in every component of the school setting. The main outcomes of this study are new insight from dynamical systems theory as applied to social systems, a set of process structures, a screening convention for dynamic change scenarios and a dynamical systems theory framework for proactive analysis of dynamic change scenarios in planning for school improvement. It is now possible to use futuristic dynamic models to manage school change, not to mandate the trajectory of change but to facilitate the rational choices of independent stakeholders towards favourable outcomes that match the policy intent. This applies to both school level changes and system level sc