Temporal Modeling of Information Diffusion in Online Social Networks

This dissertation, "Temporal Modeling of Information Diffusion in Online Social Networks" by Guolin, Niu, 牛国林, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. Abstract: The rapid development of online social networks (OSNs) renders them a powerful platform for information diffusion on a massive scale. OSNs generate enormous propagation traces. An important question is how to model the real-world information diffusion process. Although considerable studies have been conducted in this field, the temporal characteristics have not been fully addressed yet. This thesis addresses the issue of modeling the temporal dynamics of the information diffusion process. Based on empirical findings drawn from large-scale propagation traces of a popular OSN in China, we demonstrate that the temporal characteristics has a significant impact on the diffusion dynamics. Hence, a series of new temporal information diffusion models have been proposed by incorporating these temporal features. Experimental results demonstrate that these proposed models are more accurate and practical than existing discrete diffusion models. Moreover, one application of information diffusion models, i.e., the revenue maximization problem, is studied. Specifically, the thesis consists of three major parts: 1) preliminaries, i.e., introduction of research platform and collected dataset, 2) modeling social influence diffusion from three different temporal aspects, and 3) monetizing OSNs through designing intelligent pricing strategies in the diffusion process to realize the goal of revenue maximization. Firstly, the research platform is introduced and the statistical properties of the data derived from this platform are investigated. We choose Renren, the dominant social network website in China, as our research platform and study its information propagation mechanisms. Specifically, we concentrate on the propagation of "sharing video" behaviors, and collect data on more than 2.8 million Renren users and over 209 million diffusion traces. The analysis result shows that the video access patterns in OSNs differ significantly from Youtube-like systems, which makes understanding the video propagation behaviors in OSNs an important research task. Secondly, the temporal modeling of information diffusion is explored. By investigating temporal features using real diffusion traces, we find that three factors should be considered in building realistic diffusion models, including, information propagation latency, multiple influential sources and user diversities. We then develop models to explain the information propagation process by incorporating these factors, and demonstrate that the models reflect reality well. Finally, revenue maximization in the information diffusion process is studied. Specifically, the pricing factor is explicitly incorporated into the product diffusion process. To realize the goal of revenue maximization, we develop a Dynamic Programming Based Heuristic (DPBH) to obtain the optimal pricing sequence. Application of the DPBH in the revenue maximization problem shows that it performs well in both the expected revenue achieved and in running time. This leads to fundamental ramifications to many related OSN marketing applications. DOI: 10.5353/th_b5317018 Subjects: Online social networks