China's Leadership in the Twenty-First Century: The Rise of the Fourth Generation

Between Fall 2002 and Spring 2003, most of the national leadership of China's party, state, and military organs will be replaced by a new generation of officials. The accession to power of this "Fourth Generation" leadership, and the "Fifth Generation" officials who will rise to positions of influence on their coattails, will have profound implications for China, for nations in the region, and potentially for the national interests of the United States. This timely work introduces the new leaders of China and describes the political backdrop for their succession. A distinguished international group of scholars look at the process of leadership transition; the prospects and challenges facing the new leaders; questions of legitimacy and influence; flow of information on the transition within China; and security policies in the provinces and the Asia-Pacific region. They provide important insights on the leadership at "the center," in the provinces, and in the military.

Table of Contents:
I. Introduction 1. The Rise of the Fourth Generation: Overview and Implications. China's New Leaders 2. Poised to Take the Helm: Rising Stars and the Transition to the Fourth Generation 21 3. Hu Jintao's Succession: Prospects and Challenges 4. The Provinces: Training Ground for National Leaders or a Power in Their Own Right? 5. Leading Small Groups: Managing All Under Heaven 6. The Rote of Mishus in the Chinese Political System: Change and Continuity 7. Where Do Correct Ideas Come From? The Party School, Key Think Tanks, and the Intellectuals IV. Challenges to Governance and Reform 8. From the July 1 Speech to the Sixteenth Party Congress: Ideology, Party Construction, and Leadership Transition 9. Economics as the Central Task: Do Entrepreneurs Matter? 10. Social Dynamics and New Generation Politics 11. The Absent-Minded Reform of China's Media V. The Generation After Next and Future Prospects for the CCP 12. The Generation After Next in Chinese Politics 13. Remaining Relevant: The Challenges for the Party in Late-Leninist China

About the Author :
David M. Finkelstein is the Director of Project Asia, The CNA Corporation's center for Asian security studies. A long-time student of Chinese affairs, he received his Ph.D. in Chinese history from Princeton University and studied Mandarin at Nankai University in Tianjin. He is widely published on PRC and Asian security issues. A retired U.S. Army Officer, Finkelstein is a graduate of the United States Military Academy, held various China-related positions in the Pentagon, and served on the faculty of the History Department at West Point where he taught courses on the history of China and Chinese military history. Maryanne Kivlehan is an Asia Security Analyst at the CNA Corporation's Project Asia. A specialist in Chinese politics, foreign policy, and China's new generation of leaders, she also recently published an in-depth study of the political, legal, economic, environmental, and security dimensions of the South China Sea. She holds an MA in Security Policy Studies from the Elliott School of Foreign Affairs at the George Washington University, and is a graduate of the Hopkins-Nanjing Center for Chinese and American Studies, as weIl Capital Normal University in Beijing, where she studied Mandarin. Before joining the CNA Corporation, she worked for an international nonprofit organization directing projects on Chinese, Mongolian, and Russian affairs. She also spent time in Bosnia working with the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OS CE) in support of the 1997 municipal elections.