A hydroinformatics system represents an electronic knowledge encapsulator that models part of the real world and can be used for the simulation and analysis of physical, chemical and biological processes in water systems, in order to achieve a better management of the aquatic environment. Thus, modelling is at the heart of hydroinformatics. The theory of nonlinear dynamics and chaos, and the extent to which recent improvements in the understanding of inherently nonlinear natural processes present challenges to the use of mathematical models in the analysis of water and environmental systems, are elaborated in this work. In particular, it demonstrates that the deterministic chaos present in many nonlinear systems can impose fundamental limitations on our ability to predict behaviour, even when well-defined mathematical models exist. On the other hand, methodologies and tools from the theory of nonlinear dynamics and chaos can provide means for a better accuracy of short-term predictions as demonstrated through the practical applications in this work.
Table of Contents:
Chapter 1: Introduction, Chapter 2: Flood Forecasting Models and Uncertainy Representation, Chapter 3: Existing Mathematical Methods for Uncertainty Assessment, Chapter 4: Contribution of Present Research to Uncertainty Assessment Methods, Chapter 5: Application: Flood Forecasting Model for Klodzko Catchment (Poland), Chapter 6: Application: Flood Forecasting Model for Loire River (France), Chapter 7: Conclusions and Recommendations, Appendix I: Fuzzy Sets, Fuzzy Arithmetic and Defuzzification, Abbreviations, Notations, References, Samenvatting: Modellering Van Onzekerheid in Systemen Voor Hoogwatervoorspelling, Acknowledgements, About the Author
About the Author :
Shreedhar Maskey was born on 24 December 1966 in Charikot, in the district Dolkha, Nepal. In 1990, he graduated in Civil Engineering from Tribhuvan University in Nepal. Since 1991 he served in the same university as a lecturer until he joined UNESCO-IHE (then IRE-Delft) in 1997 to participate in the Master's Programme in Hydroinformatics. He received the Master of Science degree with distinction in hydro informatics in April 1 999. Since April 1999 he has been at UNESCO-IRE as a PhD research fellow. During this period he also worked for the COWl project (Apr. 1999 - Dec. 1999) and the OS1RIS2 project (Jan. 2000 - Mar. 2003) and assisted in various ways in the Hydroinformatics Master's Programme.
Review :
"This book is an excellent one. It is directed to the skeptic engineers who still refuse to embrace concept of uncertainty and continue to use deterministic approaches. This is due to the fact that books dealing with uncertainty seldom include any practical application. Therefore, many engineers assume that uncertainty modeling, be it of probabilistic, fuzzy, or convex nature, are reserved for research only. This book is a welcome harbinger which paves the way to systematic uncertainty analysis as an extremely practical problem…."
Dr. Issac Elishakoff, J. M. Rubin Distinguished Professorin Safety, Reliability and Security, Florida Atlantic University writing in Shock and Vibration 13 (2006) 63 IOS Press
Shock and Vibration 13 (2006) 63 63
IOS Press
Book Review
Modeling Uncertainty in Flood Forecasting Systems, by ShreedharMaskey, Taylor and Francis Group plc, London,
UK (ISBN 90-5809-6947)
This book deals with uncertainty in flood forecasting systems. Author bases his approach by observing that "like
all natural hazards flooding is complex and inherently uncertain phenomenon." Author applies probability theory
and fuzzy sets based theory; central point is the development of improved first-order second moment method using
a second-order reconstruction of the model function.
The temporal disaggregation method, presented in Chapter 4 (the previous one dealing with genuine randomness,
fuzziness or their hybrid) is utilized in Chapter 5 to flood forecasting model of Klodzko catchment located on the
river Nysa Klodzka in Poland; Chapter 6 utilizes the same model for Loire River in France. Author recommends
risk based flood forecasting and warning systems.
This book is an excellent one. It is directed to the skeptic engineers who still refuse to embrace concept of
uncertainty and continue to use deterministic approaches. This is due to the fact that books dealing with uncertainty
seldom include any practical application. Therefore, many engineers assume that uncertainty modeling, be it of
probabilistic, fuzzy, or convex nature, are reserved for research only. This book is a welcome harbinger which paves
the way to systematic uncertainty analysis as an extremely practical problem.
Dr. Issac Elishakoff
J. M. Rubin Distinguished Professor
in Safety, Reliability and Security
College of Engineering
Florida Atlantic University
Boca Raton, FL 33431-2825, USA
E-mail: elishako@fau.edu
ISSN 1070-9622/06/$17.00 © 2006 – IOS Press and the authors. All rights reserved
