Simulation and Wargaming

Understanding the potential synergies between computer simulation and wargaming Based on the insights of experts in both domains, Simulation and Wargaming comprehensively explores the intersection between computer simulation and wargaming. This book shows how the practice of wargaming can be augmented and provide more detail-oriented insights using computer simulation, particularly as the complexity of military operations and the need for computational decision aids increases.  The distinguished authors have hit upon two practical areas that have tremendous applications to share with one another but do not seem to be aware of that fact. The book includes insights into: The application of the data-driven speed inherent to computer simulation to wargames The application of the insight and analysis gained from wargames to computer simulation The areas of concern raised by the combination of these two disparate yet related fields New research and application opportunities emerging from the intersection Addressing professionals in the wargaming, modeling, and simulation industries, as well as decision makers and organizational leaders involved with wargaming and simulation, Simulation and Wargaming offers a multifaceted and insightful read and provides the foundation for future interdisciplinary progress in both domains.

Table of Contents:
Foreword xv Preface xxiii List of Contributors xxv Author Biography xxix Prologue xli Part I Introduction 1 1 An Introduction to Wargaming and Modeling and Simulation 3 Jeffrey Appleget Introduction 3 Terminology 3 An Abbreviated History of Wargames and Simulations 5 Wargames and Computer-Based Combat Simulations: From the Cold War to Today 6 Wargames Today 10 Simulations Today 13 Introduction 13 Simulation Types 13 Aggregate Simulations 13 Entity Simulations 14 Simulations and Prediction 14 Standard Assumptions 14 Data 15 Simulating the Reality of Combat 16 The Capability and Capacity of Modern Computing to Represent Combat 16 Finite Size 17 Number of Pieces/Entities 17 Terrain 18 Rules 18 Movement 18 Attack 19 Adjudication 19 Victory Conditions 19 Summary 20 Campaign Analysis 20 Conclusion 21 Part II Historical Context 23 2 A School for War – A Brief History of the Prussian Kriegsspiel 25 Jorit Wintjes Introduction 25 Kriegsspiel Prehistory 29 A School for War – the Prussian Kriegsspiel 36 The Prussian Kriegsspiel 1824/28 – 1862 42 The Golden Age – 1862 to c. 1875 46 The Changing Kriegsspiel – c. 1875 to 1914 50 Kriegsspiel Beyond Borders – 1871 to 1914 54 Conclusion 59 3 Using Combat Models for Wargaming 65 Joseph M. Saur The Nature of Combat Models 67 Europe’s Plan to Simulate the Entire Planet 77 China Exclusive: China’s “Magic Cube” Computer Unlocks the Future 77 A Model to Predict War 78 Afghanistan Stability/COIN Dynamics – Security 79 The Nature of Wargames 81 The Players – Who Might Be Involved? 85 The CRT – How Do We Adjudicate Political, Economic, Information and Other Non-Kinetic Actions? How DO WE ADJUDICATE KINETIC INTERACTIONS (Which, in This Case, We Hope Do Not Occur!)? 86 Organizational Behaviors 88 Issue in Wargames (and Combat Models) 89 Yyyyn 90 Part III Wargaming and Operations Research 91 4 An Analysis-Centric View of Wargaming, Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis 93 Paul K. Davis Background and Structure 93 Relationships, Definitions, and Distinctions 94 Different Purposes for Wargaming 94 Backdrop 94 A Common Critique of M&S 94 Humans and M&S 98 Distinctions 98 A Model-Game-Model Paradigm 100 The Core Idea 100 Can Human Gaming Truly Serve as “Testing”? 101 Case Study: Deterrence and Stability on the Korean Peninsula 103 Background 103 Model Building 104 Ideal Methods and Practical Expedients 104 Modernizing the Escalation Ladder 106 Cognitive Decision Models 108 Top-Level Structure 109 Lower Level Structure 109 Designing and Executing a Human Game 111 Reflections and Conclusions 114 Implications for Simulation 117 5 Wargaming, Automation, and Military Experimentation to Quantitatively and Qualitatively Inform Decision-Making 123 Jan Hodicky and Alejandro Hernandez Introduction 123 Military Methods to Knowledge Discovery 124 Technology: Knowledge Enablers 126 Wargaming Automation Challenges in M&S Perspective 128 Wargaming Relation to M&S 128 Wargaming Elements 129 Constructive Simulation Building Blocks 131 Wargaming Elements Not Supported by Constructive Simulation 131 Challenges to Combined Methodologies for Knowledge Discovery 132 Constructive Simulation Constrains in the Context of Automation and Wargaming 133 Stage- Wise Experimentation in CAW 139 A Progression of Mixed Methods to Grand Innovation 139 A Complete Application of ACAW and SWE for Future Capability Insights 144 Computer- Assisted Wargaming Classification 148 Conclusion 151 6 Simulation and Artificial Intelligence Methods for Wargames: Case Study – “European Thread” 157 Andrzej Najgebauer, Sławomir Wojciechowski, Ryszard Antkiewicz, and Dariusz Pierzchała Introduction 157 Assumptions and Research Tools 159 Modeling of Complex Activities 161 Network Model of Complex Activities 161 The MCA Software Package for Wargaming 166 Wargame – Course of Action Evaluation 169 Assumptions 169 Situation 170 Model of Operation 173 A Collection of Values of the Function h(g) 173 Deterrence Phase 175 Parameters Value – Deterrence Phase 175 COA Evaluation 179 Summary 180 7 Combining Wargaming and Simulation Analysis 183 Mark Sisson Introduction 183 Current Efforts Underway 184 Methodology 185 Frameworks or Schemas to Support Portfolios 186 Comparability 188 Emergence 190 Triangulation 190 Exercises 191 Artificial Intelligence 192 Wargames 193 Computer Simulation Models 194 Mathematical Models 195 Experimentation 196 Building Portfolios 196 Conclusion 199 8 The Use of M&S and Wargaming to Address Wicked Problems 203 Phillip Pournelle Why Are We Doing This? 205 Framing the Problem 207 M&S Support to Wargames 212 Pathologies and How to Avoid Them 213 Combining Wargaming and M&S 219 Part IV Wargaming and Concept Developing and Testing 223 9 Simulation Support to Wargaming for Tactical Operations Planning 225 Karsten Brathen, Rikke Amilde Seehuus, and Ole Martin Mevassvik Introduction 225 Operational Planning and Wargaming 226 What are the Benefits of Simulation Support to COA Wargaming? 231 Principles of Technology Support to Wargaming for Operations Planning 232 Enabling Technologies 234 Models 235 System Implementation 237 SWAP 238 SWAP Experiment 241 Conclusion and Way Forward 243 10 Simulation-Based Cyber Wargaming 249 Ambrose Kam Motivation and Overview 249 Introduction 250 Cyber Simulation 253 Mission Analysis Tool 258 Wargames 261 Commercial Wargames 265 Future Work 267 Summary 269 11 Using Computer-Generated Virtual Realities, Operations Research, and Board Games for Conflict Simulations 273 Armin Fügenschuh, Sönke Marahrens, Leonie Marguerite Johannsmann, Sandra Matuszewski, Daniel Müllenstedt, and Johannes Schmidt Introduction 273 Public Software (C:MA/NO) 275 User- Tailored Software (VBS3) 277 Artificial Intelligence for Solving Tactical Planning Problems 278 Wargaming Support 282 Conclusion 285 Part V Emerging Technologies 289 12 Virtual Worlds and the Cycle of Research: Enhancing Information Flow Between Simulationists and Wargamers 291 Paul Vebber and Steven Aguiar The Cycle of Research as a Communications Framework 293 Bridging the Wargaming – Simulation Gap 297 Virtual World Beginnings 299 Elgin Marbles – An Analytic Game 301 Analytical vs. Narrative Games 303 Virtual Worlds as a Virtual Reality 307 Operational Wargames 308 Distributed LVC Wargames 312 The Future 315 13 Visualization Support to Strategic Decision-Making 317 Richard J. Haberlin and Ernest H. Page Introduction 317 Impact/Capabilities 318 Strategic Planning 318 Acquisitions 318 Spectrum of Visualizations 319 Interactive Visualizations 320 Commercial Interactive Data Visualization 320 Custom Data and Analytics Visualization 320 Methodology 322 Model Elicitation 322 Framework 323 Considerations 323 Data 324 Analytic Tools 324 Colors of Money 324 Courses of Action 325 Model Construction 325 Strategic 326 Budget 327 Risk Identification and Mitigation 328 Example: The MITRE Simulation, Experimentation and Analytics Lab (SEAL) 329 Audio Visual Support 329 Multi-Level Security 331 Enterprise Integration 331 Community of Practice 332 Summary 333 14 Using an Ontology to Design a Wargame/Simulation System 335 Dean S. Hartley, III Motivation and Overview 335 Introduction 336 A Modern Conflict Ontology 337 An Introduction to the MCO 337 Actors 338 Objects 339 Actions 340 Metrics or State Variables 342 MCO Examples 343 Provenance of the MCO 346 Knowledge of Warfare 346 Knowledge of OOTWs 346 Modeling Issues 347 Precursor Ontologies 348 Early Versions of the MCO 349 Creating a Simulation/Wargame from the Ontology 349 Model Building Steps 350 Moving from the Ontology to the Conceptual Model 352 Building Block Concept 354 Agendas and Implicit Metric Models 356 Theoretical Metric Models 357 VV&A 358 Constructing the Scenario 361 Model Infrastructure 361 Conclusion 362 15 Agent-Driven End Game Analysis for Air Defense 367 M. Fatih Hocaogl̆ u Motivation and Overview 367 Introduction 367 Related Studies 369 Agent- Directed Simulation and AdSiF 371 AdSiF: Agent Driven Simulation Framework 373 End Game Agent 374 Command and Control Agent 374 C2 Architecture and Information Sharing 379 Target Evaluation 379 Fire Decision 380 Fire Doctrine 381 Decision-Level Data Fusion 382 Aims and Performance Measurement 384 Types of End Game Analysis 388 Footprint Analysis 390 Operating Area 394 Defended Area Analysis 395 Scenario View 397 Online Analysis and Scenario Replication Design 397 An Air Defense Scenario: Scenario View 398 Discussions 402 Epilogue 407 Index 411

About the Author :
Charles Turnitsa, PhD, is the head of the Computer Engineering program for Regent University. He has been a wargamer for over 40 years, and continues to do professional research in areas such as wargaming, data interoperability, and modeling and simulation. Curtis Blais, PhD, is a member of the research faculty in the Naval Postgraduate School’s Modeling, Virtual Environments, and Simulation (MOVES) Institute. He has over 47 years of experience in modeling and simulation development, application, and education, and actively contributes to development of international standards in modeling and simulation. Andreas Tolk, PhD, is Chief Scientist for Complex Systems Modeling at the MITRE Corporation, His contributions have been recognized by the Association for Computing Machinery (ACM) as well as the Society for Modeling and Simulation (SCS) with distinguished contribution awards. He is a senior member of IEEE and ACM and a Fellow of SCS.