A guide for protecting your wealth in an age of turbulent business cycles In Prosperity in the Age of Decline, Brian and Alan Beaulieu—the CEO and President of the Institute for Trend Research® (ITR)—offer an informed, meticulously-researched look at the future and the coming Great Depression. Drawing on ITR's 94.7% forecast accuracy rate, the book outlines specific, actionable strategies for capitalizing on cyclical opportunities and dodging economic danger. In this important resource, the authors reveal what it will take for individual investors and business leaders to prosper as the economy heats up prior to the predicted downturn, preserve wealth in the upcoming Great Depression, and profit on the way out of the depression. The imbalances and maladjustments have a while to play out and the authors pinpoint the investment opportunities to be had in the countdown period.
The Beaulieu's examine the major economic trends at play, such as low interest rates, burgeoning government debt, and an aging population. They discuss which trends will last and what investors should do with this knowledge in order to thrive. The book also reviews the group of leading economic indicators that most consistently achieve reliable results for predicting where the economy is headed. Designed as a useful tool for investors, the book includes a working list of key trends, describes the upside potential of each trend, and explains the potential threat stemming from a particular trend. Understanding how to capitalize on these trends and knowing how to avoid the common pitfalls are the keys to creating a solid economic future for individual investors and business leaders.
- Contains the strategies for capitalizing on cyclical opportunities and avoiding economic dangers
- Offers an examination of major economic trends
- Includes information on the leading economic indicators that most reliably achieve results
- Shows how to preserve wealth and avoid the most common investing pitfalls
This comprehensive resource offers guidelines for averting cyclical downturns and building on rising industry trends.
Table of Contents:
1 Results That No One Can Ignore: You Can Successfully Prepare for an Unknown Future 1
Where Not to Look 3
Confidence Indicators 3
Politics 8
Federal Reserve Board (The U.S. Version of Central Banks in Other Countries) 9
Newspapers and Media 15
ITR Economics Forecast Accuracy 16
2 The Status Quo Never Was: Seven Major Trends and Assumptions That Won’t Last 21
Unstoppable Trends That Suddenly Stopped 22
Today’s Trends That Won’t Last Forever 31
Stimulus Spending Is Needed and Helpful 34
3 Preparing for Prosperity—Good News for 2015 and 2016: Do You Have Enough? 37
What Will 2015, 2016, and 2017 Look Like? 39
4 Depression Driver: Demographics 45
More People, More Older People 47
Show Me the Money 53
Medicare and Social Security 58
Managing to Win 61
Probable Winners 65
(Potential) Losers 66
5 A World That Doesn’t Remember Inflation: New Management and Investment Thought Processes Required 69
Inflation’s Impacts 77
Five Sources of Inflation 80
Managing to Win 95
Winners and Losers 101
Appendix to Chapter 5 102
6 Sovereign Debt—Harmless or Toxic? Not Just an American Problem 105
A Global Perspective 106
Summary 114
7 A Closer Look at the United States: The U.S. Problem Becomes the World’s Problem 117
Where Are We Now? 117
Where Are We Going? 122
State and Local Governments 125
Spreading the Pain around the World 127
Summary 129
8 Business Growth Strategies and Tactics from Now through 2029 131
Monthly Moving Totals (MMTs) 132
Calculating Rate-of-Change 132
Use the Metrics 133
9 Offense and Defense: Strategies for the Upside of the Business Cycle 141
Offense and Defense 141
Conflicting Messages 142
Don’t Delay 143
Phase A Management Objectives 144
Let the Good Times Roll 147
Summary 151
10 Playing Defense to Win: Enhancing Profits Even as the Economy Deteriorates 153
Management Objectives 155
The Rules Are Changing 167
Summary 168
11 Great Opportunities within the Stock Market: What Businesses and Individuals Need to Know 169
Energy Distribution 170
Printed Electronics 171
Mexico 172
Water Conservation and Distribution 173
Health Care 174
Vocational Education 176
3-D Printing 176
Housing 177
Security 177
Natural Resources 178
Food 179
Entertainment 180
12 Investing Based on Age and Trend 181
Some Commonalities 181
Different Markets—Different Times 185
How Old Are You? 192
13 How to Spot the Top (Before the Great Depression) 201
14 What the Next Generation Needs to Know: Six Things the Next Generation Must Do 209
What Owners and Managers Must Do 209
Six Things Our Kids (and Businesses) Must Do 211
15 Is There Hope? 215
What Can Stave Off the Great Depression of 2030? 215
A Different View of the 1930s 218
A Different Future 218
Summary 219
Bibliography 221
Index 223
About the Author :
BRIAN BEAULIEU is an economist, principal and CEO with ITR Economics™ (ITR). At ITR®, Brian has been leading the charge in applied research regarding business cycle trend analysis and the utilization of that research at a practical business level. Brian consults with companies worldwide and has provided valuable insight to business owners and executives for 27 years with the result being increased profitability and greater awareness of business cycle opportunities.
ALAN BEAULIEU is a principal and the President of ITR Economics™. Alan is also the senior economic advisor to a variety of U.S. and European trade associations. He is the keynote speaker at corporate and trade association meetings worldwide where he provides a clear economics forecasts and proven profit-enhancing strategies to businesses across a wide spectrum of industries. Alan’s knowledge and expertise are in great demand, as evidenced by his extremely busy calendar that includes 120 speaking engagements a year.
