The recent rise to prominence of renewable energy and energy efficiency has been driven by their potential to lower the environmental impacts of energy use. As these technologies mature they must demonstrate not only their environmental benefits, but also their economic competitiveness. The relative costs and benefits of each potential project, whether large or small, must be systematically modelled and assessed before they can be financed and implemented.
Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency: Assessment of Projects and Policies deals with the appraisal of such projects against financial and non-financial criteria, illustrating the assessment tools necessary to make appropriate, evidence based decisions as efficiently as possible. The most important technologies are first described, stressing their economic and performance characteristics. Key project appraisal concepts are then introduced, approaches to modelling the cash flows in energy projects are described, and the issues of uncertainty and optimisation are fully discussed. These financial concepts, together with methods for estimating greenhouse gas emissions, are extended to address aspects of energy policy. Illustrated with many case studies this is an ideal introduction to financial and non-financial appraisal techniques as applied to energy efficient and renewable energy technologies.
Table of Contents:
Symbols, Units and Abbreviations ix
About the Companion Website xv
1 Introduction 1
1.1 Background 2
1.2 Aim 4
1.3 Aspects of renewable energy project appraisal 6
1.4 Book layout 8
References 10
2 Technologies 11
2.1 Introduction 11
2.2 Key concepts 11
2.2.1 Heat of combustion 12
2.2.2 Efficiency 12
2.2.3 Rated power and energy 12
2.2.4 Capacity and availability factors 13
2.2.5 Technology learning 13
2.3 Electrical power generation 14
2.3.1 Natural-gas-fired power plant 14
2.3.2 Coal-fired power plant 15
2.3.3 Hydropower 17
2.3.4 Wind power 19
2.3.5 Ocean energy 22
2.3.6 Photovoltaics 25
2.4 Heat generation 28
2.4.1 Boilers 28
2.4.2 Solar water heaters 30
2.5 Combined heat and power 34
2.5.1 Micro-CHP 36
2.5.2 CHP engines 37
2.5.3 CHP turbines 37
2.5.4 Combined heat, power and cooling 38
2.6 Energy storage 39
2.6.1 Electrical 40
2.6.2 Pumped hydroelectric storage 40
2.6.3 Compressed air energy storage 42
2.6.4 Thermal energy storage 44
2.7 Energy efficiency 45
2.7.1 Thermal insulation 46
2.7.2 High-efficiency lighting 48
References 50
3 Modelling Energy Systems 53
3.1 Introduction 53
3.2 System, model and simulation 54
3.2.1 Systems 54
3.2.2 Models 58
3.2.3 Simulation 71
3.3 Modelling and simulating energy systems 76
3.3.1 Steps in simulating energy projects 76
3.3.2 Simulation tools 79
3.3.3 Data sources 79
3.4 Case studies 83
3.4.1 Office PV system 83
3.4.2 Gas heat pump for data room cooling 87
3.4.3 Compressed air energy storage 90
3.5 Conclusions 93
References 95
4 Financial Analysis 97
4.1 Introduction 97
4.2 Fundamentals 98
4.2.1 Investor perspective 98
4.2.2 Types of projects and decisions 99
4.2.3 Cash flows 100
4.2.4 Real and nominal prices 104
4.2.5 Present value 106
4.2.6 Discount rates 109
4.2.7 Taxation and depreciation 112
4.2.8 Unequal project lifespan 114
4.3 Financial measures 116
4.3.1 Payback and discounted payback periods 117
4.3.2 Return on investment 120
4.3.3 Profitability index and savings-to-investment ratio 121
4.3.4 Net present value 123
4.3.5 Internal Rate of Return 127
4.3.6 Life cycle cost 131
4.3.7 Levelised Cost of Energy 132
4.3.8 Uncertainty and risk 134
4.3.9 Financial measures compared 136
4.4 Case studies 139
4.4.1 Municipal bus fleet conversion to compressed natural gas 139
4.4.2 New wind farm development 142
4.5 Conclusion 148
References 149
5 Multi-Criteria Analysis 151
5.1 General 151
5.2 Simple non-compensatory methods 152
5.2.1 Introduction 152
5.2.2 Dominance 153
5.2.3 Satisficing methods 155
5.2.4 Sequential elimination methods 157
5.2.5 Attitude-oriented methods 158
5.3 Simple additive weighting method 160
5.3.1 Basic simple additive weighting method 160
5.3.2 Sensitivity analysis of baseline SAW results 163
5.3.3 Assigning weights to the decision criteria 164
5.4 Analytic hierarchy process 168
5.4.1 Introduction 168
5.4.2 Hierarchies 169
5.4.3 Establishing priorities within hierarchies 169
5.4.4 Establishing and calculating priorities 171
5.4.5 Deriving priorities using an approximation method 172
5.4.6 Deriving exact priorities using the iterative Eigenvector method 173
5.5 Concordance analysis 181
5.5.1 Introduction 181
5.5.2 PROMETHEE I 184
5.5.3 ELECTRE TRI 188
5.6 Site selection for wind farms – a case study from Cavan (Ireland) 189
5.6.1 Introduction 189
5.6.2 National and international guidance 189
5.6.3 Decision framework chosen 194
5.6.4 Decision model utilised to categorise each of the 18 sites 195
5.6.5 Selection of potentially suitable sites 198
5.6.6 Concluding comment on case studies 198
5.7 Concluding comments on MCDA models 200
References 202
6 Policy Aspects 203
6.1 Energy policy context 203
6.2 Energy policy overview 206
6.2.1 Policy instruments and targets 206
6.2.2 Designing policy instruments 208
6.3 Marginal abatement cost 210
6.3.1 Environmental life cycle assessment 211
6.3.2 Estimating marginal abatement costs 221
6.4 Subsidy design 224
6.4.1 Types of energy subsidies 224
6.4.2 Calculating feed-in-tariffs 226
6.5 Social cost–benefit analysis 230
6.5.1 Define the objective and identify base case 231
6.5.2 Identify costs and benefits 231
6.5.3 Value costs and benefits 233
6.5.4 Discount the costs and benefits 235
6.5.5 Interpret results 237
6.5.6 Assess who bears the costs and benefits 237
6.5.7 Uncertainty 238
6.5.8 Make decision 238
6.6 Case studies 238
6.6.1 Marginal abatement costs of emission mitigation options in a building estate 238
6.6.2 PV feed-in-tariff design 243
6.7 Conclusions 248
References 248
Appendix A: Table of Discount Factors 251
Index 253
About the Author :
PROFESSOR AIDAN DUFFY BA, BAI, MBA, PhD, CEng, is a lecturer at the Dublin Institute of Technology where he specialises in the financial, economic and policy assessment of renewable energy technologies and energy efficient systems.
DR. MARTIN ROGERS BE, MEngSc, PhD, BA(Public Ad), CEng, MICE, MRTPI, Chartered Engineer and Chartered Town Planner is currently Assistant Head of School and Senior Lecturer in the School of Civil and Building Services Engineering at Dublin Institute of Technology.
DR. LACOUR MODY AYOMPE BEng, MEng, MSc, PhD, CMVP, MAEE, MIEI, is a Researcher at the International Energy Research Centre, with research interests in the financial, economic, and policy assessment of renewable energy technologies and energy efficient systems.
