Does Rivalry Alone Preclude Bolivian Natural Gas Sales to Chile? an Explanation for Bolivia's Lack of Cooperation with Chile in the Natural Gas Sector - Backlash Surrounding the 2003 Gas Wars

It explores the motivations behind Bolivia's refusal to sell natural gas to neighboring country Chile. It focuses on the backlash surrounding the 2003 Gas Wars and the non-cooperation that followed. Specifically, it analyzes two cases-in the 2000s and 1950s-when Bolivia successfully cooperated with Chile in the petroleum sector. While many scholars argue that rivalry has motivated Bolivia's decision to avoid cooperating with Chile, this thesis challenges that position. This thesis hypothesizes that three factors, when all present, contribute to Bolivia's decision not to cooperate with Chile in the natural gas sector. The first factor that influences this decision is disillusionment with the governing administration's economic policy. This disillusionment leads to both the administration losing credibility and the populace approaching its policy with distrust. If this factor is present, it creates the opportunity for oppositional political elites to leverage the other two factors, resource nationalism and rivalry with Chile-Bolivia's most politically charged and compelling narratives-to fully impede cooperation. This thesis tests this theory on both case studies.This compilation includes a reproduction of the 2019 Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community.I. Introduction * A. Major Research Question * B. Significance of the Research Question * C. Literature Review * 1. The Case for Rivalry and Resentment Hindering Natural Gas Sales * 2. The Case for Fear of Exploitation and Unequal Gains Hindering Natural Gas Sales * 3. Consensus and Contention * 4. Gaps in Research * D. Theory and Argument * E. Research Design * F. Thesis Overview * II. Bolivia's Key Historical Narratives * A. Resource Nationalism * B. Rivalry With Chile * C. Conclusion * III. 1950s: Cooperation * A. The Movimiento Nacionalista Revolucionario * B. YPFB Cooperation With Chile * C. Bolivian Gulf Oil Exports Via Chile * D. Explanation * 1. Lack of Disillusionment with Political Administration's Economic Policy * 2. Resource Nationalism Still Present * 3. Political Elite Mobilization for Cooperation Instead of Against It * E. Conclusion * IV. 2000s: Lack of Cooperation * A. Return of the MNR and the Rise of the Neoliberal Model * 1. The Foundation of a Looming Backlash * B. Attempted Natural Gas Cooperation With Chile Under the MNR * 1. The Growing Neoliberal Backlash after Goni's First Term * 2. The Tax and Gas Wars * C. Gas Por Mar * 1. The Continuing Neoliberal Backlash * D. Evo Morales and Natural Gas * E. Explanation * 1. Cooperation with Chile during the 2000s * 2. Disillusionment with the Administration's Economic Policy * 3. Political Elite and Their Motives * 4. Political Elite Mobilization of Resource Nationalism * 5. Political Elite Mobilization of Rivalry * F. Conclusion * V. Conclusion * A. Outlook for Cooperation * B. Broader Observations and Future ResearchThe idea that geopolitical hostility is the root cause of why Latin American nations fail to cooperate on matters of energy integration is a prevalent one. In Natural Gas Pipelines in The Southern Cone, Mares considers why there was a 25-year gap between the first international gas pipeline that connected Bolivia to Argentina and subsequent connections within the region. After a comparative analysis between failing and successful pipelines, he concludes that one of the most influential factors that dictates whether international cooperation can occur is the geopolitical relationship between countries within the southern cone.