Economic Diversification Through a Knowledge-Based Economy in the United Arab Emirates (UAE): A Study of Progress Toward Vision 2021 - Movement Away from Oil Exports, Emiratization and Innovation

With the 2010 release of Vision 2021, the government's comprehensive societal and economic vision for the future, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) laid out a path to diversify its economy. This plan moves the UAE away from resource dependence to a knowledge-based economy less reliant on natural resources and physical labor. This thesis explores the economic history of the United Arab Emirates, its previous diversification efforts, and its proposed way forward with Vision 2021. The author evaluates progress made up to this point using economic data and key performance indicators outlined in Vision 2021. This evaluation shows that although the UAE has made significant investment into diversification efforts, there has not yet been the expected return on investment. In order to fulfill the plan's aspirations, the UAE will need to make significant strides over the next two years.This compilation includes a reproduction of the 2019 Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community.Economic diversification efforts have been ongoing in the UAE for a number of years. At first glance, it would seem that they have been successful in bringing in new economic sectors including finance and tourism to decrease the government's dependence on oil. Oil revenues have been utilized to create infrastructure to enable these new sectors as well as become a shipping and transport hub. However, it has been demonstrated that the keys to successful diversification efforts lie in the development of human capital and the strengthening of institutions. Effort has been made to increase education and create a knowledge-based indigenous workforce. The effectiveness of those efforts is yet to be seen and foreign workers take a large number of jobs in the newly created sectors. Studying the outcomes of educational reforms and seeing if of high-skilled jobs are being filled by native workers will help to confirm whether the goal of a knowledge-based economy is being met. The building of institutions seems to be an area where the UAE has been successful to this point. The government has worked to create an environment that is business friendly and has a level of trustworthiness that attracts outside capital. Further study of the change in foreign capital and transactions will provide a basis to judge how well institutional capital is being built.