A Theory of Uncertainty: Perspectives in Philosophy, Social Sciences, and Risk Research(Earthscan Risk in Society)

Using sources from classical to modern that broach the phenomenon of uncertainty and its relation to risk, this book creates a novel approach to the recognized but theoretically often unattended issue of uncertainty. Andreas Klinke develops a new, general theory of uncertainty that provides a taxonomy of categories which are deduced from a critical inventory in philosophy, social and natural sciences, and risk research. Comprising six parts, the philosophical grounding of uncertainty sets the stage for the following philosophical and social scientific accounts and explanation of four distinctive guises of uncertainty that form a taxonomic notion and rationale: ontological, epistemological, linguistic-communicative, and teleological uncertainty. The theoretical-conceptual rumination provides a complex, differentiated view of the anatomy of uncertainty and an understanding that can be used in further theoretical and empirical research, as well as socio-political practice. The latter is delineated in the final part addressing the societal domestication of uncertainty. This book will be of great interest to scholars and students in philosophy, social and natural sciences, risk research, as well as inter- and transdisciplinary science fields.

Table of Contents:
Introduction Chapter 1 Entering Terra Incognita – A Metaphysical Approach 1.1 Natural and Social Guises of Uncertainty 1.2 Immanence and Genericity 1.3 The Fundamental Premise of a Theory of Uncertainty 1.3.1 At the Intersection of Philosophical and Social Science Disciplines 1.3.2 Determinism versus Nondeterminism 1.3.3 The Interpretive Structure and Dependence of Uncertainty Chapter 2 Ontological Uncertainty – World and Social Being in Disarray 2.1 Constitutive and Differential Potential 2.2 Holding Sway over Social Being 2.3 Freedom and Self-Determination 2.4 Cosmopolitan Ontology Excursus I Homo Homini Lupus Est – War, Terrorism, and Collective Violence Chapter 3 Epistemological Uncertainty – What We Know and Don’t Know about Non-Knowing 3.1 Evidentiality and Reliability 3.2 Knowable and Unknowable 3.3 Techno-Scientific Paradigm of Uncertainty 3.4 Discursive Epistemology 3.4.1 Social Epistemology and Non-Knowing 3.4.2 Epistemology of Epistemological Uncertainty 3.5 Collective Agents of Knowledge and Epistemic Communities 3.5.1 The Becoming Common of Distributed Cognitive Labor 3.5.2 Relativism, Relative Truth, and Disagreement 3.5.3 Influence of Power Excursus II The Orwellian “Doublethink” of Post-Facticity Chapter 4 Linguistic-Communicative Uncertainty – The Twilight Zone of Language, Communication, and Discourse 4.1 Linguistic Turns: Becoming Aware of Linguistic-Communicative Uncertainty 4.2 Obscurity in Semantics: Meaning, Sense, and Reference 4.2.1 Semantic Analysis 4.2.2 Functional Validity Claims (in Semantics) 4.3 Confusion through Linguistic Interpretation and Hermeneutical Conundrums 4.4 Imponderabilia of Discourse and Communicative Rationality 4.5 Anomalies of Linguistic-Communicative Uncertainty Revisited 4.5.1 Lexical Vagueness and Ambiguity of Terms and Phrases 4.5.2 Illogical Syntax and Compositionality 4.5.3 Unclear and Obscure Referencing 4.5.4 Delusive Contextualization 4.5.5 Inadequate Linguistic Attitude and Intentionality 4.5.6 Equivocal Interpretation 4.5.7 Discursive Imponderability Excursus III Speaking out of Turn – The Viral Linguistic Power of Social Media Chapter 5 Teleological Uncertainty – Journey into an Uncertain Future 5.1 World in Process and Transition 5.1.1 Uncertainty in Process 5.1.2 The Coming About of Teleological Uncertainty 5.2 Art and Science of Prescience 5.2.1 Systematic Approaches to the Future 5.2.2 A Vein of Modalism, Abstractionism, and Possibilism 5.3 Logic of Teleological Uncertainty in Forward-Looking Constructions 5.3.1 Conjecturing Teleological Uncertainty and Contingent Future 5.3.2 Reasoning, Inference, and Plausibility 5.3.3 Multifarious Logic of Teleological Uncertainty 5.3.4 The Role of Intuition 5.3.5 Uncertain Encounters with Bifurcations, Tipping Points, and Points of No Return Excursus IV Ides of March – Rare Contretemps, Upheavals, and Radical Transformations Chapter 6 Epilogue – Societal Domestication of Uncertainty 6.1 Philosophication and Scientification of Uncertainty 6.2 Rational Politicization of Uncertainty 6.3 Postnormal Democratization of Uncertainty 6.3.1 Mediatory Public Sphere 6.3.2 Epistemic Authority 6.3.3 Associational Authority 6.3.4 General Public Authority 6.3.5 Résumé Bibliography Index

About the Author :
Andreas Klinke is a political scientist and sociologist. He is Full Professor and the Director of the Environmental Policy Institute (EPI) at Memorial University of Newfoundland in Canada. In addition, he is an external member of the Center for International Development and Environmental Research at the University of Giessen in Germany. Prior to that, he worked at the ETH-domain in Zurich, Switzerland, at King’s College in London, as well as at the University of Stuttgart, the Center of Technology Assessment in Stuttgart, and at the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) in Germany.