Forecasting Instability Indicators in the Horn of Africa Region

The forecasting of state failure and the associated indicators has been a topic of great interest to a number of different agencies. USAid, CENTCOM, the World Bank, the Center for Army Analyses, and others have all examined the subject based on their own specific objectives. Whether the goal is denying terrorists space in which to operate, deciding how to pre-position materials in anticipation of unrest, stabilizing foreign markets and trade, or preventing or mitigating humanitarian disasters, man made or otherwise, this topic has been of interest for over a decade. The Horn of Africa has been one of the least stable regions in the world over the past three decades, and a continual source of humanitarian crises as well as terrorist activity. Some of the initial modeling of instability was done in response to crises in the Horn of Africa, but research is ongoing. Current models forecasting instability suffer from lack of lead time, subjective predictions, and lack of specificity. The models demonstrated in this study provide 4 year forecasts of battle deaths per capita, refugees per capita, genocide, and undernourishment for Djibouti, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen. This thesis used principal component analysis, canonical correlation, ordinary least squares regression, logistic regression, and discriminant analysis to develop models of each instability indicator using 54 variables covering 32 years of observations. The key variables within each model are identified, and the accuracy of each model is compared with current models. This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work. This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work. As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.