Decision Analysis for Creating the Future

Individuals and groups often find themselves in problematic situations not knowing what to do next. They may experience a sense of unease that things aren't quite right, with no clear path to a better future. This book shows how decision analysis and the social skills of the decision analyst can enable us to explore the future before having to live it. The author is a senior decision analyst sharing his lived experience with many clients in numerous private, public, and voluntary organisations. The book sets out a five-step process to choose, define, and assemble the ten key ingredients of any problem into one model. Changes to the ingredients representing possible futures provide new glimpses into the future, stimulate creativity and lead to new solutions. Readers will gain a sound theoretical foundation with an understanding of process consultancy skills and the types of problems for which decision analysis is appropriate.

Table of Contents:
Chapter summaries; Preface; Part I. The Technical Principles: 1. A decision-making framework; 2. The foundations of decision theory; 3. The language of numbers; 4. Values; 5. Trade-off weights; 6. Uncertainty and probability; Part I Epilogue; Part II. The Social Principles: 7. Decision conferences; 8. Behaviour in organisations; 9. Process consultancy; 10. Facilitation skills; 11. Group processes; Part II Epilogue; Part III. Socio-Technical Modelling: 12. Types of decision models; 13. Evaluate options; 14. Allocate resources; 15. Bargain and negotiate; 16. Choose and decide; 17. Managing risk; 18. Revise opinion; 19. Think strategically; Part III. Epilogue.

About the Author :
Lawrence D. Phillips is Emeritus Professor in the Department of Management, London School of Economics and Political Science. In 2005 he received the Frank P. Ramsey Medal for distinguished contributions in Decision Analysis.

Review :
‘Reading Decision Analysis for Creating the Future is like opening a magic box and discovering the art and science of decision-making. In his simple yet rigorous language, Larry Phillips offers us a fascinating distillation of his vast and diverse experience of applying decision analysis in decision conferencing with small groups. This is not just another book on decision-making. Rather, it is the missing masterpiece on how to construct and exploit analytical models interactively to help decision-makers visualise and discuss alternative paths for a better future in the face of multiple sources of complexity and uncertainty.’ Carlos A. Bana e Costa, University of Lisbon and LSE ‘This book is well-suited for applied analytics programs, where students move quickly from theory to practice. Its emphasis on foundational concepts equips readers to solve not just one problem, but any problem. Additionally, the discussion of decision context is especially valuable, highlighting that the real challenge is often aligning stakeholders around a path forward – not just making the decision itself.’ David Kreutter, Senior Lecturer in Applied Analytics, Columbia University ‘The concepts and stories used to bring the theory to life are fascinating and insightful, and the signposting throughout the book makes it a very enjoyable and flowing read.’ Clare Bridger, Incendium Consulting ‘This book is a must-read for anyone who wants to make better decisions with analysis. It uniquely combines the foundations of decision analysis with a deep understanding of the social processes that make it work in practice.’ Detlof von Winterfeldt, Professor of Industrial & Systems Engineering and Policy, Planning, and Development, University of Southern California ‘Decision Analysis for Creating the Future describes all the practical concepts and ideas, and useful procedures to implement them, that are the basis for a thorough and practical analysis of any decision worthy of thought.’ Ralph Keeney, President of US Marketing and Decisions Group,Inc. and Professor Emeritus at Duke University and the University of Southern California ‘An excellent guide for current and future generations.’ Bob Kitchen, Founder and former Managing Director of Catalyze Ltd.