An Introduction to Predicting Failures on Highly Reliable Aerospace Equipment

The author describes his research and work developing and using predictive algorithms to identify premature aging in normal appearing satellite subsystem electrical and mechanical equipment's analog and digital equipment telemetry on the U.S. Air Force/Boeing GPS Block I satellites and the results of the author's prognostics analysis of the NASA/Fairchild/U.C. Berkeley, Space Science Laboratory's Extreme Ultra-Violet Explorer (EUVE) class low earth orbiting space science satellite, one of many sister ships to the NASA Hubble Space Telescope. Now called prognostics and health management or PHM technology, the predictive algorithms developed and used by the author on the Boeing GPS satellites as the Boeing GPS Space and ground Segment Manager were a follow-on to NRL's two failed navigation technology satellite (NTS) program funded by the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL). PHM and the prognostic analysis was first used by the author to predict on-board Boeing's GPS Block I satellite's cesium and rubidium atomic frequency standard failures for replacement prior to and during critical system-wide, multi-service test and evaluation program that used the initial 12 GPS Block I (a.k.a. Phase I) constellation of MEO satellites that were operating in a 12,000 mile altitude, 63 degree inclination circular Earth orbit for achieving the maximum satellite and system performance. As the Boeing GPS Space and Ground Segment Manager, the author was responsible for Boeing's GPS satellite design and redesign, launch, early orbit operations and final 3-axis stabilized on-orbit operations during the Phase I of 3 phases of the GPS program. The routine, prognostic analysis completed by the author were documented in monthly and quarterly orbital test reports as CDRL's submitted to the GPS Program Office located at AFSMC in Los Angeles, CA. The initial 12 Boeing Block 1 GPS satellite constellation was used by the author to win funding for the GPS program from the Pentagon. Using predictive algorithms, the author completed routine prognostic analysis on each on-orbit satellites and Boeing then won two follow-on contracts for 40 additional improved Boeing GPS Block II and IIA with the improvements as a result of the routine prognostic analysis by the author, who discovered many improvements in equipment and subsystem functional configuration and equipment performance. With the GPS program funded by the DoD, the two existing and well-established Navy, satellite-based navigation and timing programs called TIMATION and TRANSIT were retired. The Introduction to Predicting Failures on Highly Reliable Aerospace Equipment documents the author's many years of work in developing and using PHM technology on both the Boeing GPS satellites and the NASA/Fairchild/U.C. Berkeley EUVE low earth orbiting space science satellite. The NASA EUVE used one of 10 Fairchild's multi mission satellite Bus' purchased by NASA hoping to lower the cost of an expected group of future space science missions. NASA discontinued the purchase of groups of multi-mission satellite bus and adopted categories of space missions based on a fixed total budget for each mission such as Explorer-class with a total funding of $500M and the Discovery-class satellites with a total budget from NASA of $250M.

About the Author :
The author is an award winning spacecraft designer, winning awards from INTELSAT for the design of the 12 INTELSAT VII geostationary communications satellite, Boeing and the U.S. the Air Force for his technical contributions and leadership that led to the funding of the GPS program by the DoD as the Boeing GPS Space & Ground Segment Manager. The author has over 30 years experience in the design, manufacture and test of military, NASA and commercial satellites, ground stations, missiles and launch vehicles as an RF and digital design engineer, systems engineer, Engineering Manager and Director at companies such as Boeing, Lockheed Martin, British Aerospace, United Technologies, LORAL and L3 Communications. The authored pioneered the use of predictive algorithms on the GPS satellites to illustrate and identify the presence of premature Aging in satellite subsystem and payload equipment analog telemetry and determine remaining usable life as the Boeing/Air Force's GPS Space and Ground Segment Manager on GPS satellites at the factory, launch pad and on on-orbit and on the General Dynamics Atlas E/F launch vehicles used to launch GPS Block I satellites into a 63 degree inclination, 12 hour circular orbit beginning in 1979 and the author improved the design of Boeing's 28 Block II satellites and 12 more Block IIA satellites from the prognostic analysis results the author obtained from the 12 Boeing Block I GPS satellites. The author was also the Air Force's Titan, Boeing IUS solid rocket motor and Scramjet Test Manager at the United Technologies, CSD rocket testing facility located in the Coyote Hills, South San Jose California. As the Program Manager of the U.C. Berkeley/NASA EUVE low earth orbiting space science program, Space Sciences Laboratory, the author was requested to complete a prognostic analysis on the on-orbit NASA EUVE low earth orbiting satellite in 1994 and 1995. The results were published in conjunction with Lockheed Martin's reliability engineers from the Advanced Development Center located in Sunnyvale CA for use on the U.S. Navy Trident D5 ICBM program. The intent of this book is to illustrate that telemetry has increased importance from nice-to-have engineering data to information critical to achieving mission success up from about 85% since launching payloads to space began.