Geocomplexity and the Physics of Earthquakes: (Geophysical Monograph Series)

Published by the American Geophysical Union as part of the Geophysical Monograph Series, Volume 120. Earthquakes in urban centers are capable of causing enormous damage. The January 16, 1995 Kobe, Japan earthquake was only a magnitude 6.9 event and yet produced an estimated $200 billion loss. Despite an active earthquake prediction program in Japan, this event was a complete surprise. Similar scenarios are possible in Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, and other urban centers around the Pacific plate boundary. The development of forecast or prediction methodologies for these great damaging earthquakes has been complicated by the fact that the largest events repeat at irregular intervals of hundreds to thousands of years, resulting in a limited historical record that has frustrated phenomenological studies. The papers in this book describe an emerging alternative approach, which is based on a new understanding of earthquake physics arising from the construction and analysis of numerical simulations. With these numerical simulations, earthquake physics now can be investigated in numerical laboratories. Simulation data from numerical experiments can be used to develop theoretical understanding that can be subsequently applied to observed data. These methods have been enabled by the information technology revolution, in which fundamental advances in computing and communications are placing vast computational resources at our disposal.

Table of Contents:
Preface J. B. Rundle, D.L. Turcotte, and William Klein  ix Introduction John B . Rundle, Donald L. Turcotte, and William Klein  1 Models Deterministic Chaos in two State-variable Friction Sliders and the Effect of Elastic Interactions Thorsten W. Becker  5 Spring-block Models of Seismicity: Review and Analysis  of a Structurally Heterogeneouos  Model Coupled to a Viscous Asthenosphere ]on D. Pelletier  27 Statistical Anlysis  of a Model  for Earthquake Faults With Long-range Stress Transfer W. Klein, M. Anghel,  C. D. Ferguson, J. B. Rundle,  and J. S. S. Martins 43 Traveling Wave and Rough Fault Earthquake Models:  Illuminating  the Relationship Between Slip Deficit and E vent Frequency Statistics Susana J . Gross  73 A Statistical Physics Approach to Earthquakes D. L. Turcotte, W. I. Newman, and A. Gabrielov  83 Earthquakes: Friction or a Plastic Instability? D.C. Roberts and D. L. Turcotte  97 Lattice Solid Simulation of the Physics of Fault Zones and Earthquakes:The Model, Results, and Directions P. Mora, D. Place, S. Abe, and S. Jaum  105 Patterns Dynamics of Seismicity Patterns in Systems of Earthquake Faults John B. Rundle, W. Klein, Kristy Tiampo and Susanna Gross  127 Constraints from Field and Laboratory Data Microscopic and Macroscopic Physics of Earthquakes Hiroo Kanamori and Thomas H. Heaton  147 Depth Dependent Rupture Properties in Circum-Pacific Sub-duction  Zones Susan L. Bilek and Thorne Lay  165 Effects of Loading Rate and Normal Stress on Stress Drop and Stick-Slip Recurrence Interval Stephen L. Karner and Chris Marone 187 Changeisn EarthquakSei ze-FrequenDcyis tributionUsn derlyinAgc celeratinSge ismic Moment/Energy Release Steven C. Jaum  199 Observation of Systematic  Variations in Non-local Seismicity Patterns from Southern California K. F. Tiampo, J. B. Rundle, S. McGinnis, S. J. Gross, and W. Klein  21 Computational Methods Introducinag New Paradigm for Computational Earth Science: A Web-Object-Based Approach to Earthquake Simulations Geoffrey C. Fox, Ken Hurst, Andrea Donnellan, and Jay Parker 219 Modeling Complex Crustal Processes William J. Bosl  245 Crustal Fluids and Earthquakes William J. Bosi and Amos Nur  267

About the Author :
John B. Rundle is the editor of Geocomplexity and the Physics of Earthquakes, published by Wiley. Donald L. Turcotte is an American geophysicist, most famous for his work on the boundary layer theory of mantle convection as part of the theory of plate tectonics.