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Home > Society and Social Sciences > Politics and government > Political activism / Political engagement > Public opinion and polls > Pre-Election Polling: Sources of Accuracy and Error
Pre-Election Polling: Sources of Accuracy and Error

Pre-Election Polling: Sources of Accuracy and Error


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About the Book

Since 1948, when pollsters unanimously forecast a Dewey victory over Truman, media sponsored polls have proliferated - accompanied by growing unease about their accuracy. This work probes the results of over 430 recent polls and taps the professional "lore" of experienced pollsters to offer a major new assessment of polling practices in the 1980s. This book examines the accuracy of the polls conducted before a range of American elections - from presidential to local. It incorporates unpublished observations and reflections of pollsters representing national organizations (including Gallup, Roper and the CBS/New York Times Poll) as well as pollsters from state, academic and private organizations. It finds potential sources of polling error in such areas as sampling, question working, anticipated turnout and accounting for last minute changes in preference. To these methodological correlates of accuracy it adds important political considerations - is it a primary or general election; what is the office being contested; how well known are the candidates; how crystalized are voter attitudes? Polls have become a vital part of the American political process, and this work examines the abilty to predict and understand the complexities of voting behaviour.

Table of Contents:
Design and conduct of the research; sampling; turnout; determining candidate preference; saliency, cognition and commitment; stability and lability of voting preferences; characteristics of polling organizations; a multivariate analysis; questionaire - survey of standard methodology employed in pre-election polls.

About the Author :
IRVING CRESPI heads Irving Crespi & Associates in Princeton, consultants in opinion and consumer research. He has taught at City University of New York/Bernard M. Baruch College, State University of New York/Harpur College, and Rutgers University.


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Product Details
  • ISBN-13: 9780871542083
  • Publisher: Russell Sage Foundation
  • Publisher Imprint: Russell Sage Foundation
  • Height: 234 mm
  • Returnable: N
  • Weight: 540 gr
  • ISBN-10: 0871542080
  • Publisher Date: 23 Aug 1988
  • Binding: Hardback
  • Language: English
  • Sub Title: Sources of Accuracy and Error
  • Width: 156 mm


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