Libya's Fragmentation: Structure and Process in Violent Conflict

Shortlisted for the Conflict Research Society's 2021 Book of the Year Prize Shortlisted for the British-Kuwait Friendship Society 2021 Book Prize After the overthrow of the Qadhafi regime in 2011, Libya witnessed a dramatic breakdown of centralized power. Countless local factions carved up the country into a patchwork of spheres of influence. Almost no nationwide or even regional organizations emerged, and no national institutions survived the turbulent descent into renewed civil war. Only the leader of one armed coalition, Khalifa Haftar, managed to overcome competitors and centralize authority over eastern Libya. But tenacious resistance from armed groups in western Libya blocked Haftar's attempt to seize power in the capital Tripoli. Rarely does political fragmentation occur as radically as in Libya, where it has been the primary obstacle to the re-establishment of central authority. This book analyzes the forces that have shaped the country's trajectory since 2011. Confounding widely held assumptions about the role of Libya's tribes in the revolution, Wolfram Lacher shows how war transformed local communities and explains why Khalifa Haftar has been able to consolidate his sway over the northeast. Based on hundreds of interviews with key actors in the conflict, Lacher advances an approach to the study of civil wars that places the transformation of social ties at the centre of analysis.

Table of Contents:
INTRODUCTION The Puzzle Fragmentation in Civil Wars and Collapsed States. Fragmentation and Social Structure. The Argument Structure, Process, and Social Transformation in Civil War Social Embeddedness The Process of Fragmentation Mechanisms and Processes Research Design and Methodology Data collection Conditions and Constraints Plan of the Book LIBYA'S UNRAVELLING, 2011-2019 Revolution (February-October 2011) Sharing the Spoils (November 2011 – July 2012) An Experiment with Democracy (July 2012 – May 2013) Escalating Tensions (May 2013 – June 2014) The Second Civil War (2014-15) The Elusive Agreement (July 2015 – September 2016) Impasse (September 2016 – January 2019) Haftar's Expansion and the Third Civil War (January 2019) Patterns, Turning Points, and Paths not Taken STRUCTURE AND PROCESS IN THE ERUPTION OF CIVIL WAR (2011) Structure, Process, and Violence Collective Indecision, Contingency, and Violence Violence, Group Structure, and Social Transformation Structural Aspects of Libyan Localism A Century of Turmoil, 1911-2011 What Is A Libyan Tribe? The Myth of the Marginalized Cities and Regions The Irruption of Localism in 2011 A Local Civil War in the Western/Nafusa Mountains Misrata: Rise of a Revolutionary Bulwark Bani Walid: Loyalism and Victimization Tobruk: Revolution at the Margins Conclusion: Violence and the Formation of New Political Communities SOCIAL EMBEDDEDNESS AND VIOLENT CONFLICT (2012-15) Resocializing Armed Groups Social Embeddedness versus Formalization Social Embeddedness and Transformation in Libya's Conflicts Misrata: Power Politics and Social Embeddedness Western/Nafusa Mountains: Militia Conglomerates and Community Security Bani Walid: The Difficult Path to Local Cohesion. Tobruk: The Backwater Elsewhere: The Reign of Militias Conclusion THE PROCESS OF FRAGMENTATION (2015-2019) Is Fragmentation a Game? Changes in Strategic Conditions, 2011-2019 Trajectories of Fragmentation Misrata: Social Cohesion, Political Fragmentation Western/Nafusa Mountains: Zintan, from Corporatism to Fragmentation Bani Walid: Restoring Cohesion through Self-Isolation Tobruk: The Rise of Haftar Conclusion CONCLUSION How Civil Wars Erupt: Onset vs. Escalation Processes in Violent Conflict: Social Transformation and Strategic Conditions Fragmentation and Cohesion What Explains Deep Social Embeddedness, and What Are Its Implications? From Fragmentation to Consolidation The Libyan Predicament Annex: List of Interviews Publication bibliography Index