Practical Tourism Forecasting

Practical Tourism Forecasting is the first step-by-step guide to forecasting tourism demand. It emphasizes how alternative forecasting methods organize information about the past to shed light on the future. It highlights the strengths and weaknesses of each of 13 different forecasting techniques and presents rules for determining the optimum model for a given tourism forecasting project. Using examples from the lodging, destination, airline and international tourism sectors, this book employs charts and tables to explain how to *plan a forecasting project *analyze time series and other information *select the appropriate forecasting model * use the model for forecasting and evaluate its results. 'Practical Tourism Forecasting' is ideal for postgraduate students in tourism and hospitality degree programs specializing in marketing, finance and operations. It is also well-suited to managers and administrators who must project demand for their products among tourists. Executives who rely on forecasts prepared by others will find it will assist them in evaluating the validity and reliability of these predictions. Those engaged in analyzing business trends broadly will find it helpful in surveying the future of what has been called the largest industry in the world.

Table of Contents:
Introduction; Alternative forecasting methods and evaluation; The tourism forecasting process; Basic extrapolative models and decomposition; Intermediate extrapolative methods; An advanced extrapolative method; Causal methods - regression analysis; Causal methods - structural models; Qualitative forecasting methods; Conclusion; Appendices; Glossary; Bibliography.

Review :
'...pioneering survey of tourism forecasting.' J. Willard Marriot, Jr., Chairman and CEO, Marriott International "an excellent comprehensive review of a potentially difficult subject made very understandable by a highly respectable author." University Consultant "The book is well written and has an excellent free flowing style which is comfortable to read, and suitable for students. Industry managers with little forecasting background would gain much from reading the book, in particular what to look for in evaluating a tourism forecasting report." L.W.Turner, Victoria University of Technology, Australia Review published in International Journal of Forecasting 1997 " ..is ideally suited for scholars in tourism and tourism-related fields and industry and government executives. It should grace the bookshelf of anyone involved and interested in forecasting tourism demand." Hubert B. Van Hoof, Northern Arizona University Review published in Journal of Travel Research Spring 1997 "...anyone looking for an exemplary textbook on forecasting will benefit from this book." The Futurist, May-June 1997