Profiting from Uncertainty: Strategies for Succeeding No Matter What the Future Brings

A revolutionary approach to strategic planning shows managers not only how to prepare for the unknown but how to profit from it. In an environment of increasing technological and global instability, the risks of ignoring uncertainty are greater than ever. But so are the rewards of actively addressing it. Traditionally, managers have viewed uncertainty as an obstacle interfering with the company's existing plans. Profiting From Uncertainty shows the opposite to be true, that the unknown creates opportunity and that scenario based planning, options thinking and other approaches can be used to actually profit from the ambiguity. Dr. Paul Schoemaker, a worldwide authority on strategic decision making goes beyond other gurus who simply project how the future might unfold to take a comprehensive approach that moves from external scenarios to key success factors to real options to implementation. Drawing on his work with companies in such diverse fields as biotechnology, financial services, utilities and online travel, Schoemaker shows how to 1) develop and analyze multiple industry scenarios, 2) craft nimble strategies, 3) implement them using an options approach and 4) make real time adjustments through dynamic monitoring.

Table of Contents:
Contents Preface: Tumultuous Times Chapter 1 Embracing Uncertainty Chapter 2 Preparing the Mind Chapter 3 Experiencing Multiple Futures Chapter 4 Preparing for the Unknown Chapter 5 Building a Robust Strategic Vision Chapter 6 Creating Flexible Options Chapter 7 Dynamic Monitoring and Adjustment Chapter 8 Implementation: Living with Uncertainty Chapter 9 Case Study: Flying through Turbulence Conclusion Navigating the Future Appendix A: The Psychology of Uncertainty Appendix B: Uncertainty Tool Kit Notes Index

About the Author :
Formerly a strategic planner with Royal Dutch/Shell's scenario planning group in London, is the Chairman and CEO of Decision Strategies International, Inc. He is also Research Director of the Mack Center for Technological Innovation at the Wharton School, where he teaches strategy and decision making.

Review :
"Paul Schoemaker belongs to an extremely exclusive club -- the one for business authors who are both leading-edge practitioners and academic researchers. This extraordinary book offers eminently practical, yet theoretically pure, advice for managers in these uncertain times." "The title says it all...Schoemaker guides us through the uncertainties and anxieties that confound business post-dotcom/post-September 11/post-Enron/post-economic downturn. He shows how businesspeople can create scenarios that will make them prepared and how the prepared can exploit the opportunities inherent in an uncertain world." "This is the strategic equivalent of a good liberal arts education. It teaches you a broad-based approach that will keep you from being surprised by change." "Paul Schoemaker describes a strategic process that will better prepare organizations for the future. This book is an invaluable guide for managers in both the public and private sectors."