Strategic Reassurance and Resolve: U.S.-China Relations in the Twenty-First Century

After forty years of largely cooperative Sino-U.S. relations, policymakers, politicians, and pundits on both sides of the Pacific see growing tensions between the United States and China. Some go so far as to predict a future of conflict, driven by the inevitable rivalry between an established and a rising power, and urge their leaders to prepare now for a future showdown. Others argue that the deep economic interdependence between the two countries and the many areas of shared interests will lead to more collaborative relations in the coming decades. In this book, James Steinberg and Michael O'Hanlon stake out a third, less deterministic position. They argue that there are powerful domestic and international factors, especially in the military and security realms, that could well push the bilateral relationship toward an arms race and confrontation, even though both sides will be far worse off if such a future comes to pass. They contend that this pessimistic scenario can be confidently avoided only if China and the United States adopt deliberate policies designed to address the security dilemma that besets the relationship between a rising and an established power. The authors propose a set of policy proposals to achieve a sustainable, relatively cooperative relationship between the two nations, based on the concept of providing mutual strategic reassurance in such key areas as nuclear weapons and missile defense, space and cyber operations, and military basing and deployments, while also demonstrating strategic resolve to protect vital national interests, including, in the case of the United States, its commitments to regional allies.

Table of Contents:
Preface to the Paperback Edition ix Acknowledgments xiii Chapter 1. Introduction 1 Part I: The Cause for Concern Chapter 2. The Sources of Conflict 17 Chapter 3. The Determinants of Chinese Strategy 29 Chapter 4. The Determinants of American Strategy 48 Part II: Strategic Reassurance in Practice Chapter 5. Military Spending and Military Modernization 77 Chapter 6. Military Contingencies: Enhancing Crisis Stability 120 Chapter 7. The Strategic Domain: Nuclear, Space, and Cyber 150 Chapter 8. Bases, Deployments, and Operations 182 Chapter 9. Conclusion 203 Appendix A. Summary of Specific Recommendations 209 Appendix B. Naval Vessels of the United States and China 213 Notes 215 Index 257

About the Author :
James Steinberg is dean of the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs and professor of social science, international affairs, and law at Syracuse University, and former deputy secretary of state in the Obama administration. Michael E. O'Hanlon is a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who specializes in national security policy.

Review :
"Strategic Reassurance and Resolve furnishes an important and wide-ranging toolkit to keep the conversation between the U.S. and China going."--Ali Wyne, Wall Street Journal "[T]he points Steinberg and O'Hanlon make deserve the attention of all readers interested in the connection between U.S. and China going forward."--Publishers Weekly "[S]cholarly as well as accessible, marking out the potential points of conflict while avoiding the glib certainties of much commentary on the implications of China's rise. What sets this book apart, however, is its intelligent effort to chart a feasible path for the relationship that could prevent inevitable competition hardening into unavoidable conflict... If policy makers on either side of the Pacific are looking for a handbook--and they should be--Steinberg and O'Hanlon have written one."--Philip Stephens, Financial Times "Steinberg and O'Hanlon offer a realistic assessment of the challenges ahead in the US-China relationship... Ultimately, Steinberg and O'Hanlon's great contribution is in laying out a nuanced, yet clear-eyed plan to reduce the risk of great power conflict in the 21st century's most consequential bilateral relationship. As the authors themselves argue, the United States' and China's long-term intentions are unknown, unknowable, and dynamic. But if there exists an approach to avoiding dangerous rivalry and promoting stability in spite of this, it is Strategic Reassurance and Resolve."--Mira Rapp-Hooper, National Interest "This book is for those who want a thorough explanation of the security, defense, and strategic issues facing China and the U.S."--South China Morning Post "James Steinberg and Michael O'Hanlon argue persuasively."--Shannon Tiezzi, Diplomat "[T]his readable title is a must for anyone interested in U.S. foreign policy and U.S.-China relations."--Library Journal "This is an important book that should be read by anyone interested in US-China relations today."--Lanxin Xiang, Survival "Not only tackles in sustained depth the contemporary security challenges that the United States and China face ... but also presents a general security framework that is applicable across other bilateral or multilateral international relations debates. Acknowledging but ultimately eschewing the role of economic and political relations in the determination of security, Steinberg and O'Hanlon present a sustained, informed and practical study of military and strategic issues and their potential resolution for the United States and China."--Tyler Rooker, Pacific Affairs "This book deserves to be widely read and discussed. Steinberg and O'Hanlon have made an important contribution in advancing the dialogue on strategic relations between the United States and China."--Andrew Scobell, Political Science Quarterly