Surprise Attack
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Surprise Attack: The Victim’s Perspective, With a New Preface

Surprise Attack: The Victim’s Perspective, With a New Preface

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About the Book

Emphasizing the psychological aspect of warfare, Ephraim Kam observes surprise attack through the eyes of its victims. He traces the behavior of the victim to examine the mistakes that permit a nation to be taken by surprise and argues that anticipation and prediction of war is more complicated than any other issue of strategic estimation.

Table of Contents:
Contents Foreword by Thomas C. Schelling Preface, 2004: Old Patterns, New Lessons Introduction Part I: The Components of Surprise Attack 1. The Essence of Surprise Attack Reaction to Disasters and Warnings Aspects of Erroneous Estimates The Strategic Warning Surprise and Military Preparedness 2. Information and Indicators Quality of Intelligence Information Early Warning Indicators Signal and Noise Quantity of Intelligence Information 3. Intentions and Capabilities Inference and Difficulties in Estimating Intentions The Enemy’s Conceptual Framework Risk Taking by the Enemy Estimating Capabilities Part II: Judgmental Biases and Intelligence Analysis 4. Conceptions and Incoming Information The Set of Conceptions The Persistence of Conceptions Assimilating Information Information and Expectations Treating Discrepant Information Cognitive Biases and Overconfidence Prediction and Intelligence Analysis Stages of Intelligence Analysis Approaches for Generating and Evaluating Hypotheses Analogies and Learning from History Evaluating Incoming Information Choosing among Alternative Hypotheses External Obstacles to Perception Changing a View Part III: The Environment 6. The Analyst and the Small Group The Other Opinion Groupthink Pressures for Conformity The Leader and the Expert Group Risk Taking The Military as an Organization Rivalry, Coordination, and Communication Intrinsic Problems in the Intelligence Organization Military Men and Surprise Attack 8. Intelligence and Decision Makers Decision Makers and Intelligence Production Commitment to a Policy How Decision Makers Affect the Intelligence Process Decision Makers and Surprise Attack The Complexity of the Problem Why Safeguards Usually Fail War without Surprise? Notes Bibliography Index


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Product Details
  • ISBN-13: 9780674039292
  • Publisher: Harvard University Press
  • Publisher Imprint: Harvard University Press
  • Edition: Digital original
  • No of Pages: 304
  • ISBN-10: 0674039297
  • Publisher Date: 01 Jul 2009
  • Binding: Digital (delivered electronically)
  • Language: English
  • Sub Title: The Victim’s Perspective, With a New Preface


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