Making Hard Decisions with Decision Tools Suite
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Making Hard Decisions with Decision Tools Suite

Making Hard Decisions with Decision Tools Suite


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About the Book

Teaching the fundamental ideas of decision analysis, this text avoids an overly technical explanation of the mathematics used in management science. This new version incorporates and implements the powerful Decision Tools Suite, a toolkit for risk and decision analysis. At the end of each chapter, topics are illustrated with step-by-step instructions for the Decision Tools Suite. This new version makes the text more useful and relevant to students of management science.

Table of Contents:
Part 1 Introduction to decision analysis: gypsy moths and the ODA; why are decisions hard?; why study decision analysis?; subjective judgments and decision making; the decision-analysis process; where is decision analysis used?; where are we going from here?; summary; questions and problems; case studies. Part 2 Modeling decisions: elements of decision problems: values and objectives; making money - a special objective; values and the current decision context; Boeing's supercomputer; decisions to make; sequential decisions; uncertain events; consequences; the time value of money - a special kind of trade-off; Larkin Oil; summary; questions and problems; case studies. Part 3 Structuring decisions: structuring values; hiring a summer intern; fundamental and means objectives; getting the decision context right; structuring decisions - influence diagrams; influence diagrams and the fundamental objectives hierarchy; using arcs to represent relationships; some basic influence diagrams; constructing an influence diagram (optional); toxic chemicals and the EPA; structuring decisions - decision trees; decision trees and the objectives hierarchy; some basic decision trees; decision trees and influence diagrams compared; decision details - defining elements of the decision; more decision details - cash flows and probabilities; defining measurement scales for fundamental objectives; using precision tree for structuring decisions; summary; exercises; questions and problems; case studies. Part 4 Making choices: Texaco versus Pennzoil; decision trees and expected monetary value; solving influence diagrams - overview; solving influence diagrams - the details (optional); solving influence diagrams - an algorithm (optional); risk profiles; dominance - an alternative to EMV; making decisions with multiple objectives; the summer job; analysis - one objective at a time; subjective ratings for constructed attribute scales; assessing trade-off weights; analysis - expected values and risk profiles for two objectives; decision analysis using precision tree; summary; exercises; questions and problems; case studies. Part 5 Sensitivity analysis: Eagle Airlines; sensitivity analysis - a modeling approach; problem identification and structure; one-way sensitivity analysis; tornado diagrams; dominance considerations. (Part contents).


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Product Details
  • ISBN-13: 9780534365974
  • Publisher: Cengage Learning, Inc
  • Publisher Imprint: Duxbury Press
  • Edition: Revised edition
  • Language: English
  • Weight: 1315 gr
  • ISBN-10: 0534365973
  • Publisher Date: 23 Jun 2000
  • Binding: Paperback
  • Height: 235 mm
  • Returnable: N
  • Width: 190 mm


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