System Enquiry: A System Dynamics Approach

This book considers the role of system dynamics as both a soft and hard approach to system enquiry. It aims to formalize both aspects of the subject and presents both qualitative and quantitative system dynamics. The former is centred on diagrammatic modelling as a means of describing and analyzing complex systems and the latter is based on converting these diagrams into formal simulation techniques, and are presented using both DYSMAP2 and STELLA simulation languages. The book trys to explain some of the insights which are possible from employing the system dynamics method and focuses on the use of system dynamics for policy design and for anticipating "counter intuitive behaviour" of systems. The text also discusses the use of optimization as a method of policy design in system dynamics models. The book is intended for policy makers, modelling analysts and students in strategy and policy analysis and in management science. The book assumes no previous knowledge of system dynamics on the part of the reader and only a general appreciation of algebra is necessary to understand the simulation languages and simulation models used.

Table of Contents:
Part 1 An overview of system dynamics: definition and outline of the system dynamics method; qualitative system dynamics; quantitative system dynamics; the value added at each phase of the method. Part 2 Qualitative system dynamics I - the components of diagrams: creating process structure; delays in processes; marketing organizational boundaries; creating information structure and strategy; further components of information flows; feedback loop. Part 3 Qualitative system dynamics II - the methodology and its application: model construction; model analysis; a case study in model construction and analysis - the ESS case; the testing of strategies prior to implementation. Part 4 Quantitative system dynamics - an overview of the quantification, simulation and use of models: quantification of models; the simulation concept; simulation equations; system behaviour; hand simulation; computer simulation; software; validation; improvement of system behaviour. Part 5 Quantitative system dynamics II - equation ofrmulation, model development and policy analysis: a staff recruitment and leaving (SRL) model; the averaged level; the SRL model with leaving rate control; the SRL model with fixed recruitment rate; the SRL model with nonlinear control; the SRL model with multiplier control; delays; delays and the SRL model. Part 6 A case study in long-term company evolution: interpretation of the problem in terms of feedback loops; identification of resources and states; construction of a composite qualitative model; equation construction; application of the model. Part 7 A case study in the control of a mineral transportation system: background to the problem; the problem; the conceptualization of the model; the STELLA software; equation formulation; effects of alternative bunker discharge policies; summary and conclusions from the policy analysis; quantifying the benefits of alternative bunker discharge policies; transfer of the algorithm to other systems; production policy design in coal mines; allocartion of defence resources; generalization of the algorithm; comments on the use of portable algorithms. Part 8 A case study in defence analysis: the problem; the identification of resource states and resource flows; the composite model; strategies and parameters in the model; equation formulation; results from the model; the underlying feedback model. Part 9 The basic concepts of systems dynamics optimization: the optimization concept; software features; optimization in action. Part 10 The analysis of defence strategies using optimization: the optimization of red strategies; results from experiments with red's objective functions; conclusions from optimizing red's strategies; the optimization of blue's strategies; results from experiments with blue's objective functions; conclusions from optimizing blue strategies.