Decision Making in Systems Engineering and Management: (Wiley Series in Systems Engineering and Management)

Decision Making in Systems Engineering and Management is a  comprehensive textbook that provides a logical process and analytical techniques for fact-based decision making for the most challenging systems problems. Grounded in systems thinking and based on sound systems engineering principles, the systems decisions process (SDP) leverages multiple objective decision analysis, multiple attribute value theory, and value-focused thinking to define the problem, measure stakeholder value, design creative solutions, explore the decision trade off space in the presence of uncertainty, and structure successful solution implementation. In addition to classical systems engineering problems, this approach has been successfully applied to a wide range of challenges including personnel recruiting, retention, and management; strategic policy analysis; facilities design and management; resource allocation; information assurance; security systems design; and other settings whose structure can be conceptualized as a system. 

Table of Contents:
Foreword to the Second Edition xvii Foreword to the First Edition xix Preface to the Second Edition xxi Acknowledgments xxv Thoughts for Instructors xxvii Contributors xxxiii Acronyms xli 1 Introduction 1 Gregory S. Parnell and Patrick J. Driscoll 1.1 Purpose 1 1.2 System 3 1.3 Stakeholders 3 1.4 System Life Cycle 7 1.5 Systems Thinking 10 1.6 Systems Engineering Thought Process 12 1.7 Systems Engineering 13 1.8 Engineering Management 15 1.9 Systems Decision Process 16 1.10 Overview 21 1.11 Exercises 21 References 23 Part I Systems Thinking 25 2 Systems Thinking 27 Patrick J. Driscoll 2.1 Introduction 27 2.2 Structure 32 2.3 Classification 33 2.4 Boundaries 35 2.5 Visibility 39 2.6 IDEF0 Models 40 2.7 Mathematical Structure 50 2.8 Spatial Arrangement 54 2.9 Evolution 58 2.10 Summary 58 2.11 Exercises 59 References 63 3 System Life Cycle 65 Patrick J. Driscoll and Paul Kucik 3.1 Introduction 65 3.2 System Life Cycle Model 68 3.2.1 Establish System Need 70 3.2.2 Develop System Concept 70 3.2.3 Design and Develop System 70 3.2.4 Produce System 71 3.2.5 Deploy System 72 3.2.6 Operate System 72 3.2.7 Retire System 73 3.3 Other Major System Life Cycle Models 74 3.4 Risk Management in the System Life Cycle 77 3.4.1 Risk Identification 78 3.4.2 Risk Assessment 83 3.4.3 Risk Mitigation 88 3.5 Summary 89 3.6 Exercises 90 References 92 4 Systems Modeling and Analysis 95 Paul D. West, John E. Kobza, and Simon R. Goerger 4.1 Introduction 95 4.2 Developing System Measures 96 4.3 Modeling the System Design 98 4.3.1 What Models Are 99 4.3.2 Why We Use Models 99 4.3.3 Role of Models in Solution Design 101 4.3.4 Qualities of Useful Models 102 4.4 The Modeling Process: How We Build Models 104 4.4.1 Create a Conceptual Model 105 4.4.2 Construct the Model 106 4.4.3 Exercise the Model 107 4.4.4 Revise the Model 108 4.5 The Model Toolbox: Types of Models, Their Characteristics, and Their Uses 109 4.5.1 Characteristics of Models 112 4.5.2 The Model Toolbox 114 4.6 Simulation Modeling 121 4.6.1 Analytical Solutions Versus Simulation; When It Is Appropriate to Use Simulation 122 4.6.2 Simulation Tools 123 4.7 Determining Required Sample Size 129 4.8 Summary 131 4.9 Exercises 132 References 134 5 Life Cycle Costing 137 Edward Pohl and Heather Nachtmann 5.1 Introduction to Life Cycle Costing 137 5.2 Introduction to Cost Estimating Techniques 139 5.2.1 Types of Costs 143 5.3 Cost Estimation Techniques 145 5.3.1 Estimating by Analogy Using Expert Judgment 145 5.3.2 Parametric Estimation Using Cost Estimating Relationships 146 5.3.3 Learning Curves 160 5.4 System Cost for Systems Decision Making 167 5.4.1 Time Value of Money 168 5.4.2 Inflation 168 5.4.3 Net Present Value 171 5.4.4 Breakeven Analysis and Replacement Analysis 172 5.5 Risk and Uncertainty in Cost Estimation 172 5.5.1 Monte Carlo Simulation Analysis 173 5.5.2 Sensitivity Analysis 177 5.6 Summary 178 5.7 Exercises 178 References 181 Part II Systems Engineering 183 6 Introduction to Systems Engineering 185 Gregory S. Parnell 6.1 Introduction 185 6.2 Definition of System and Systems Thinking 185 6.3 Brief History of Systems Engineering 186 6.4 Systems Trends that Challenge Systems Engineers 186 6.5 Three Fundamental Tasks of Systems Engineers 189 6.6 Relationship of Systems Engineers to Other Engineering Disciplines 192 6.7 Education, Training, and Knowledge of Systems Engineers 192 6.7.1 Next Two Chapters 193 6.8 Exercises 193 Acknowledgment 194 References 194 7 Systems Engineering in Professional Practice 197 Roger C. Burk 7.1 The Systems Engineer in the Engineering Organization 197 The Systems Engineering Job 199 Three Systems Engineering Perspectives 199 Organizational Placement of Systems Engineers 199 7.2 Systems Engineering Activities 200 Establish System Need 201 Develop System Concept 202 Design and Develop the System 202 Produce System 202 Deploy System 203 Operate System 203 Retire System 203 7.3 Working with the Systems Development Team 203 The SE and the Program Manager 203 The SE and the Client, the User, and the Consumer 203 The SE and the CTO or CIO 205 The SE and the Operations Researcher or System Analyst 205 The SE and the Configuration Manager 206 The SE and the Life Cycle Cost Estimator 206 The SE and the Engineering Manager 206 The SE and the Discipline Engineer 207 The SE and the Test Engineer 207 The SE and the Specialty Engineer 207 The SE and the Industrial Engineer 208 The SE and Quality Assurance 208 7.4 Building an Interdisciplinary Team 208 Team Fundamentals 208 Team Attitude 209 Team Selection 210 Team Life Cycle 210 Cross-Cultural Teams 211 7.5 Systems Engineering Responsibilities 212 Systems Engineering Management Plan (SEMP) 212 Technical Interface with Users and Consumers 213 Analysis and Management of Systems Requirements 213 System Architecting 216 Systems Engineering Tools and Formal Models 217 Interface Control Documents (ICDs) 218 Test and Evaluation Master Plan (TEMP) 218 Configuration Management (CM) 218 Specialty Engineering 218 Major Program Technical Reviews 220 System Integration and Test 221 7.6 Roles of the Systems Engineer 221 7.7 Characteristics of the Ideal Systems Engineer 222 7.8 Summary 223 7.9 Exercises 224 Acknowledgment 225 References 225 8 System Reliability 227 Edward Pohl 8.1 Introduction to System Effectiveness 227 8.2 Reliability Modeling 228 8.3 Mathematical Models in Reliability 229 8.3.1 Common Continuous Reliability Distributions 233 8.3.2 Common Discrete Distributions 242 8.4 Basic System Models 244 8.4.1 Series System 245 8.4.2 Parallel System 245 8.4.3 K-out-of-N Systems 247 8.4.4 Complex Systems 247 8.5 Component Reliability Importance Measures 249 8.5.1 Importance Measure for Series System 249 8.5.2 Importance Measure for Parallel System 250 8.6 Reliability Allocation and Improvement 250 8.7 Markov Models of Repairable Systems 253 8.7.1 Kolmogorov Differential Equations 253 8.7.2 Transient Analysis 254 8.7.3 Steady-State Analysis 256 8.7.4 CTMC Models of Repairable Systems 256 8.7.5 Modeling Multiple Machine Problems 258 8.7.6 Conclusions 263 8.8 Exercises 263 References 271 Part III Systems Decision Making 273 9 Systems Decision Process Overview 275 Gregory S. Parnell and Paul D. West 9.1 Introduction 275 9.2 Value-Focused Versus Alternative-Focused Thinking 276 9.3 Decision Quality 278 9.4 Systems Decision Process 280 9.5 Role of Stakeholders 282 9.6 Role of Decision Makers 283 9.7 Environment 284 9.8 Comparison with Other Processes 285 9.9 When to Use the Systems Decision Process 286 9.9.1 Need 289 9.9.2 Resources 289 9.9.3 Decision Maker and Stakeholder Support 289 9.10 Tailoring the Systems Decision Process 289 9.11 Example Use of the Systems Decision Process 290 9.12 Illustrative Example: Systems Engineering Curriculum Management System (CMS)—Summary and Introduction 290 9.13 Exercises 293 Acknowledgment 294 References 294 10 Problem Definition 297 Timothy Trainor and Gregory S. Parnell 10.1 Introduction 297 10.1.1 The Problem Definition Phase 298 10.1.2 Comparison with Other Systems Engineering Processes 299 10.1.3 Purpose of the Problem Definition Phase 300 10.1.4 Chapter Example 300 10.2 Research and Stakeholder Analysis 300 10.2.1 Techniques for Stakeholder Analysis 302 10.2.2 Stakeholder Analysis for the Rocket System Decision Problem 313 10.2.3 At Completion 314 10.3 Functional and Requirements Analyses 314 10.3.1 Terminology 315 10.3.2 Importance of Functional Analysis 315 10.3.3 Functional Analysis Techniques 316 10.3.4 Requirements Analysis 324 10.3.5 At Completion 325 10.4 Value Modeling 326 10.4.1 Definitions Used In Value Modeling 326 10.4.2 Qualitative Value Modeling 327 10.4.3 Quantitative Value Model 331 10.4.4 At Completion of Value Modeling 340 10.5 Output of the Problem Definition Phase 340 10.5.1 Discussion 340 10.5.2 Conclusion 341 10.6 Illustrative Example: Systems Engineering Curriculum Management System (CMS)—Problem Definition 341 10.7 Exercises 350 References 350 11 Solution Design 353 Paul D. West 11.1 Introduction to Solution Design 353 11.2 Survey of Idea Generation Techniques 355 11.2.1 Brainstorming 355 11.2.2 Brainwriting 358 11.2.3 Affinity Diagramming 358 11.2.4 Delphi 358 11.2.5 Groupware 361 11.2.6 Lateral and Parallel Thinking and Six Thinking Hats 361 11.2.7 Morphology 361 11.2.8 Ends–Means Chains 363 11.2.9 Existing or New Options 363 11.2.10 Other Ideation Techniques 363 11.3 Turning Ideas into Alternatives 365 11.3.1 Alternative Generation Approaches 365 11.3.2 Feasibility Screening 366 11.4 Analyzing Candidate Solution Costs 368 11.5 Improving Candidate Solutions 369 11.5.1 Modeling Alternatives 369 11.5.2 Simulating Alternatives 369 11.5.3 Design of Experiments 370 11.5.4 Fractional Factorial Design 376 11.5.5 Pareto Analysis 386 11.6 Summary 388 11.7 Illustrative Example: Systems Engineering Curriculum Management System (CMS)—Solution Design 388 11.8 Exercises 390 References 391 12 Decision Making 395 Michael J. Kwinn, Jr., Gregory S. Parnell, and Robert A. Dees 12.1 Introduction 395 12.2 Preparing to Score Candidate Solutions 396 12.2.1 Revised Problem Statement 396 12.2.2 Value Model 397 12.2.3 Candidate Solutions 397 12.2.4 Life Cycle Cost Model 397 12.2.5 Modeling and Simulation Results 397 12.2.6 Confirm Value Measure Ranges and Weights 397 12.3 Five Scoring Methods 398 12.3.1 Operations 398 12.3.2 Testing 398 12.3.3 Modeling 399 12.3.4 Simulation 399 12.3.5 Expert Opinion 399 12.3.6 Revisit Value Measures and Weights 400 12.4 Score Candidate Solutions or Candidate Components 400 12.4.1 Software for Decision Analysis 401 12.4.2 Candidate Solution Scoring and Value Calculation 402 12.4.3 Candidate Components Scoring and System Optimization 404 12.5 Conduct Sensitivity Analysis 409 12.5.1 Analyzing Sensitivity on Weights 410 12.5.2 Sensitivity Analysis on Weights Using Excel 411 12.6 Analyses of Uncertainty and Risk 412 12.6.1 Risk Analysis—Conduct Monte Carlo Simulation on Measure Scores 413 12.7 Use Value-Focused Thinking to Improve Solutions 417 12.7.1 Decision Analysis of Dependent Risks 419 12.8 Conduct Cost Analysis 423 12.9 Conduct Cost/Benefit Analysis 423 12.10 Decision-Focused Transformation (DFT) 424 12.10.1 Transformation Equations 425 12.10.2 Visual Demonstration of Decision-Focused Transformation 427 12.10.3 Cost/Benefit Analysis and Removal of Candidate Solutions 427 12.11 Prepare Recommendation Report and Presentation 432 12.11.1 Develop Report 433 12.11.2 Develop Presentation 434 12.12 Prepare for Solution Implementation 439 12.13 Illustrative Example: Systems Engineering Curriculum Management System (CMS)—Decision Making 439 12.13 Exercises 443 References 446 13 Solution Implementation 447 Kenneth W. McDonald and Daniel J. McCarthy 13.1 Introduction 447 13.2 Solution Implementation Phase 449 13.3 The Initiating Process 452 13.4 Planning 453 13.5 Executing 457 13.6 Monitoring and Controlling 458 13.7 Closing 461 13.8 Implementation During Life Cycle Stages 462 13.8.1 Implementation in “Produce the System” 462 13.8.2 Implementation in “Deploy the System” 464 13.8.3 Implementation in “Operate the System” 466 13.9 Exercises 474 References 475 14 Summary 477 Gregory S. Parnell 14.1 Systems Thinking—Key to Systems Decision Making 478 14.1.1 Systems Thinking Reveals Dynamic Behavior 478 14.1.2 The System Life Cycle Must Be Considered 478 14.1.3 Modeling and Simulation—Important Tools 479 14.1.4 The System Life Cycle Is a Key Risk Management Tool 479 14.1.5 Life Cycle Costing Is an Important Tool for Systems Engineering 479 14.2 Systems Engineers Play a Critical Role in the System Life Cycle 480 14.2.1 Systems Engineers Lead Interdisciplinary Teams to Obtain System Solutions that Create Value for Decision Makers and Stakeholders 480 14.2.2 Systems Engineers Convert Stakeholder Needs to System Functions and Requirements 480 14.2.3 Systems Engineers Define Value and Manage System Effectiveness 480 14.2.4 Systems Engineers Have Key Roles Throughout the System Life Cycle 481 14.3 A Systems Decision Process Is Required for Complex Systems Decisions 481 14.3.1 Problem Definition Is the Key to Systems Decisions 481 14.3.2 If We Want Better Decisions, We Need Better System Solution Designs 482 14.3.3 We Need to Identify the Best Value for the Resources 482 14.3.4 Solution Implementation Requires Planning, Executing, and Monitoring and Controlling 482 14.4 Systems Engineering Will Become More Challenging 483 Appendix A SDP Trade Space Concepts 485 Index 491

About the Author :
GREGORY S. PARNELL, PhD, has been Professor of Systems Engineering in the Department of Systems Engineering at the United States Military Academy at West Point since 1999. He has also taught at Virginia Commonwealth University and the Air Force Institute of Technology. Dr. Parnell is a Fellow of the International Committee for Systems Engineering. PATRICK J. DRISCOLL, PhD, has been Professor of Operations Research in the Department of Systems Engineering at the United States Military Academy since 2001. From 2004 to 2007 he held the USMA Transformation Chair, and was program director for systems engineering from 2004 to 2005. DALE L. HENDERSON, PhD, was an assistant professor in the Department of Systems Engineering at the United States Military Academy from 2005 to 2009. He is currently a Senior Military Analyst for the U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command Analysis Center in Virginia.

Review :
"Whereas the first edition was intended primarily for an undergraduate course, this second edition incorporates material that allows for the adaptation of the text to the graduate level." (Booknews, 1 February 2011)