Probabilities: The Little Numbers That Rule Our Lives

What are the chances? Find out in this entertaining exploration ofprobabilities in our everyday lives “If there is anything you want to know, or remind yourself, about probabilities, then look no further than this comprehensive, yet wittily written and enjoyable, compendium of how to apply probability calculations in real-world situations.” — Keith Devlin, Stanford University, National Public Radio’s “Math Guy” and author of The Math Gene and The Math Instinct “A delightful guide to the sometimes counterintuitive discipline of probability. Olofsson points out major ideas here, explains classic puzzles there, and everywhere makes free use of witty vignettes to instruct and amuse.” — John Allen Paulos, Temple University, author of Innumeracy and A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper “Beautifully written, with fascinating examples and tidbits of information. Olofsson gently and persuasively shows us how to think clearly about the uncertainty that governs our lives.” — John Haigh, University of Sussex, author of Taking Chances: Winning with Probability From probable improbabilities to regular irregularities, Probabilities: The Little Numbers That Rule Our Lives investigates the often-surprising effects of risk and chance in our everyday lives. With examples ranging from WWII espionage to the O. J. Simpson trial, from bridge to blackjack, from Julius Caesar to Jerry Seinfeld, the reader is taught how to think straight in a world of randomness and uncertainty. Throughout the book, readers learn: Why it is not that surprising for someone to win the lottery twice How a faulty probability calculation forced an innocent woman to spend three years in prison How to place bets if you absolutely insist on gambling How a newspaper turned an opinion poll into one of the greatest election blunders in history Educational, eloquent, and entertaining, Probabilities: The Little Numbers That Rule Our Lives is the ideal companion for anyone who wants to obtain a better understanding of the mathematics of chance.

Table of Contents:
Preface v 1 Computing Probabilities: Right Ways and Wrong Ways 1 The Probabilist 1 The Probabilist's Toys and Language 4 The Probabilist's Rule Book 9 Independence, Airplanes, and Russian Peasants 14 Conditional Probability, Swedish TV, and British Courts 20 Liar, Liar 24 Total Probability, Used Cars, and Tennis Matches 28 Combinatorics, Pastrami, and Poetry 33 The von Trapps and the Binomial Distribution 37 Final Word 43 2 Surprising Probabilities: When Intuition Struggles 45 Boys, Girls, Aces, and Colored Cards 45 Goats and Gloats 50 Happy Birthday 52 Typical Atypicalities 57 Strategies, Shopping, and Spaghetti Westerns 61 The British Snob and I 65 Final Word 70 3 Tiny Probabilities: Why Are They So Hard to Escape? 71 Probable Improbabilities 71 Saddam and I 75 Taking Tiny Risks 80 A Million-to-One Shot, Doc, Million to One! 82 Monsieur Poisson and the Mysterious Number 37 84 Clumps in Space 89 Final Word 91 4 Backward Probabilities: The Reverend Bayes to Our Rescue 93 Driving Miss Daisy 93 Bayes, Balls, and Boys (and Girls) 96 Bayes and My Green Card 98 Objection Your Honor 103 Final Word 112 5 Beyond Probabilities: What to Expect 115 Great Expectations 115 Good Things Come to Those Who Wait 123 Expect the Unexpected 129 Size Matters (and Length, and Age) 132 Deviant Behavior 138 Final Word 143 6 Inevitable Probabilities: Two Fascinating Mathematical Results 145 Alea Iacta Est, Over and Over 145 Even-Steven? The Law Misunderstood 149 Coin Tosses and Freeway Congestion 155 Let's Get Serious 162 Bells and Bread 166 How a Toronto Quincunx Changed My Life 171 Final Word 173 7 Gambling Probabilities: Why Donald Trump Is Richer than You 175 French Letters 175 Roulette: A Classy Way to Waste Your Money 179 Craps: Not so Dicey After All 184 Blackjack: Money for Mnemonics 187 Math for Losers 193 Win Money and Lose Friends 200 Final Word 210 8 Guessing Probabilities: Enter the Statisticians 211 Lies, Damned Lies, and Beautiful Lies? 211 4 out of 10 Like the President 19 Times out of 20 215 Polls Gone Wild 220 The Lawsuit and the Lurker 225 Football Players and Geyser Eruptions 230 Snooping in the Abbot’s Garden 237 Final Word 242 9 Faking Probabilities: Computer Simulation 245 Mahogany Dice and Modular Arithmetic 245 Random and Not-So-Random Digits 252 Number One Is Number One 253 Is Random Really Random? 256 Final Word 261 Index 263

About the Author :
PETER OLOFSSON, PHD, is Associate Professor of Mathematics at Trinity University. Dr. Olofsson is an active researcher in the field of applied probability and is an experienced teacher. He is the author of Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes, also from Wiley.