As Morgan Stanley's chief Asia specialist, getting Asia right is Stephen Roach's personal obsession, and this in-depth compilation represents more than 70 of Roach's key research efforts not just on Asia, but also on how the region fits into the broad context of increasingly globalized financial markets. The book argues that the "Asia factor" is not a static concept, but rather one that is constantly changing and evolving. Broken down into five parts–Asia's critical role in globalization; the coming rebalancing of the Chinese economy; a new pan-regional framework for integration and competition; and a frank discussion of the biggest risk to this remarkable transformation–this book will help readers understand and profit from the world's most dynamic region.
Table of Contents:
Acknowledgments ix
Introduction xi
Chapter 1 A World in Crisis 1
A Subprime Outlook for the Global Economy
Save the Day
Coping with a Different Recession
Davos Diary: 2008
Double Bubble Trouble
Even When the Worst Is Over—Watch Out for Aftershocks
Pitfalls in a Postbubble World
Panic of 2008: Enough Scapegoating
Global Fix for a Global Crisis
Changing the Fed’s Policy Mandate
An Early Leadership Opportunity for Barack Obama
Dying of Consumption
Uncomfortable Truths about Our World after the Bubble
A Postbubble Global Business Cycle
America’s Japan Syndrome
Whither Capitalism?
After the Era of Excess
Same Old, Same Old
Depression Foil
Chapter 2 The Globalization Debate 89
Open Macro
The Battleground of Globalization
The Global Delta
Beggars Can’t Be Choosers
Perils of a Different Globalization
Bad Advice and a New Global Architecture
Doha Doesn’t Matter
Global Speed Trap
Hitting a BRIC Wall?
Global Comeback—First Japan, Now Germany
Labor versus Capital
Global Lessons
From Globalization to Localization
Unprepared for Globalization
The Currency Foil
The Shifting Mix of Global Saving
Chapter 3 Chinese Rebalancing 169
China’s Rebalancing Challenge
A Commodity-Lite China
Scale and the Chinese Policy Challenge
China’s Great Contradiction
Soft Landing Made in China?
The Great Chinese Profi ts Debate
China Goes for Quality
Heavy Lifting
Two Birds with One Stone
Unstable, Unbalanced, Uncoordinated, and Unsustainable
China’s Global Challenge
Consumer-Led Growth for China
China’s Macro Imperatives
Manchurian Paradox
Chapter 4 Pan-Asian Challenges 261
The Next Asia
Rebalancing Made in Japan?
From Beijing to Dubai
A Tale of Two Asias
Kim’s Boost to Globalization
Japan’s Missing Link
India on the Move
The Cranes of Dubai
Asian Decoupling Unlikely
The Korea Test
Asia’s Policy Trap
Complacency Asian Style
The End of the Beginning
Another Asian Wake-Up Call
India’s Virtuous Cycle
Risks of an Asian Relapse
Chapter 5 U.S.-China Tensions 327
A Slippery Slope
Past the Point of No Return
Debating U.S.-China Trade Policy
Who’s Subsidizing Whom?
Protectionist Threats—Then and Now
The Ghost of Reed Smoot
China’s Pace, America’s Angst
The Politics of Trade Frictions
A Wake-Up Call for the United States and China:
Stress Testing a Symbiotic Relationship
Afterword 395
Sources 403
About the Author 407
Index 409
About the Author :
STEPHEN S. ROACH has been a thought leader on Wall Street for over thirty years. He is currently a member of the faculty of Yale University and Non-Executive Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia. For the bulk of his career, he served as Morgan Stanley's chief economist, heading up a highly regarded team of economists around the world. His recent research on globalization, the emergence of China and India, trade policy, and the capital market implications of global imbalances has appeared widely in the international media and in testimony before the U.S. Congress. Prior to joining Morgan Stanley in 1982, he worked in senior capacities at Morgan Guaranty Trust Company and the Federal Reserve Board in Washington D.C. He holds a PhD in economics from New York University and was a research fellow at the Brookings Institution. He is currently recovering from chronic jet lag syndrome after having logged 1.2 million air miles during his recent three-year stint as Hong Kongbased Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia.
Review :
"As Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and a renowned economist, Stephen Roach has a solid macroeconomics background, in-depth understanding of the region, rich knowledge of various industries, and an open mind. In this book, Steve vividly describes the changes of Asia -- and the driving forces behind those changes。Furthermore, he brilliantly points out the challenges Asia is facing, as well as its impacts on the global economy. Asia is reshaping the global economy in this post-crisis world, and I believe this book provides us with unique insights as to how this reshaping is playing out."
—Dr. Zhu Min, Group Executive Vice President, Bank of China "Stephen Roach has for many years been a uniquely independent voice among international economic commentators. He was one of the few who warned that the debt-fuelled 'casino' economy was unsustainable. His prophetic warnings came to pass in 2008. In his latest book he issues another warning. Asia's explosive growth has been based on a 'bet' upon deep integration with the global economy. Stephen Roach argues that this growth is unsustainable in the face of the global recession. The region needs comprehensively to re-balance its economic model if it is to maintain its remarkable growth. He warns that this will not be easy. Stephen Roach's book is essential reading for those who hold the comfortable belief that Asia has 'de-coupled' from the world economy."
—Prof Peter Nolan, CBE, Sinyi Professor, Judge Business School, and Chair, Development Studies, University of Cambridge, UK
