Purposeful Program Theory: Effective Use of Theories of Change and Logic Models(Research Methods for the Social Sciences)

Between good intentions and great results lies a program theory—not just a list of tasks but a vision of what needs to happen, and how. Now widely used in government and not-for-profit organizations, program theory provides a coherent picture of how change occurs and how to improve performance. Purposeful Program Theory shows how to develop, represent, and use program theory thoughtfully and strategically to suit your particular situation, drawing on the fifty-year history of program theory and the authors' experiences over more than twenty-five years. "From needs assessment to intervention design, from implementation to outcomes evaluation, from policy formulation to policy execution and evaluation, program theory is paramount. But until now no book has examined these multiple uses of program theory in a comprehensive, understandable, and integrated way. This promises to be a breakthrough book, valuable to practitioners, program designers, evaluators, policy analysts, funders, and scholars who care about understanding why an intervention works or doesn't work." —Michael Quinn Patton, author, Utilization-Focused Evaluation "Finally, the definitive guide to evaluation using program theory! Far from the narrow 'one true way' approaches to program theory, this book provides numerous practical options for applying program theory to fulfill different purposes and constraints, and guides the reader through the sound critical thinking required to select from among the options. The tour de force of the history and use of program theory is a truly global view, with examples from around the world and across the full range of content domains. A must-have for any serious evaluator." —E. Jane Davidson, PhD, Real Evaluation Ltd. Companion Web site: josseybass.com/go/funnellrogers

Table of Contents:
Figures, Tables, and Exhibits x Acknowledgments xv The Authors xvii Introduction: The Promise and Risks of Using Program Theory xix Part One Key Ideas in Program Theory Chapter 1: The Essence of Program Theory 3 Evaluation Without Program Theory 3 Evaluation with Program Theory 6 Summary 13 Exercises 13 Chapter 2: Variations of Program Theory over Time 15 A Short History of Program Theory 15 Terminology in Program Theory 23 Key Ideas in Program Theory 30 Summary 34 Exercises 35 Chapter 3: Common Myths and Traps 37 Some Common Myths 37 Traps to Avoid When Developing and Using Program Theory 41 Summary 52 Exercises 52 Part Two Assessing Your Circumstances Chapter 4: Scoping Intended Uses 55 Why Intended Use Matters 55 Using Program Theory 58 Summary 67 Exercises 68 Chapter 5: The Nature of the Situation and the Intervention 69 Simple, Complicated, and Complex 70 Focus 74 Governance 80 Consistency 82 Necessariness 84 Sufficiency 85 Change Trajectory 88 Summary 90 Exercise 91 Part Three Developing and Representing Program Theory Chapter 6: Processes to Identify or Develop a Program Theory 95 Process Options for Developing Program Theory 95 Decision 1: Who Should Be Involved in Developing a Program Theory, and How? 97 Decision 2: What Is an Appropriate Mix of Approaches for Developing or Eliciting the Program Theory? 101 Decision 3: How Might Workshops and Interviews Be Used in Developing Program Theory? 120 Decision 4: As Challenges Arise, How Should They Be Addressed? 128 Decision 5: How Much Time and Resources Should Be Invested in Developing or Identifying a Program Theory? 141 Decision 6: When Is It Time to Revisit a Program Theory? 144 Summary 147 Exercise 148 Chapter 7: Developing a Theory of Change 149 Features of a Theory of Change 150 Situation Analysis: Understanding the Problem, Its Causes, and Its Consequences 151 Focusing and Scoping 163 Outcomes Chain 176 Summary 195 Exercises 196 Chapter 8: Developing a Theory of Action 199 Preparing the Theory of Action 204 Success Criteria for a Theory of Change 204 Assumptions About Factors That Affect Successful Achievement of Outcomes 217 How to Identify Factors That Are Likely to Affect Outcomes 226 Identifying What the Program Does 229 Pulling the Theory of Change and the Theory of Action Together in a Matrix 235 Summary 237 Exercise 240 Chapter 9: Representing Program Theory 241 Options for Representation 241 Representing Complicated Program Theory 251 Representing Complex Program Theory 264 What Makes a Good Representation of Program Theory 277 Should Logic Models Include SMART Measures? 290 Summary 291 Exercises 292 Chapter 10: Critiquing Program Theory 293 Criteria for Assessing Internal Validity 296 Criteria for External Validation 305 Engaging Stakeholders in the Review 312 Responding to the Results of a Review of a Program Theory 314 Summary 316 Exercise 316 Part Four Resources for Developing Program Theory Chapter 11: Some Research-Based Theories of Change 319 Theory of Reasoned Action and Theory of Planned Behavior 323 Stages of Change Theory 326 Empowerment Theory 332 Diffusion Theory 335 Socioecological Theory 339 Network Theory 342 Selecting and Using Theories of Change 347 Summary 349 Exercises 349 Chapter 12: Some Common Program Archetypes 351 Some Important Program Archetypes 351 Advisory, Information, and Education Program Archetype 352 Carrots and Sticks Program Archetype 357 Case Management Programs Program Archetype 367 Community Capacity-Building Program Archetype 370 Product or Direct Service Delivery Program Archetype 374 Deciding Which Program Archetype Applies to a Program 381 Summary 385 Exercise 386 Chapter 13: Logic Models Resources 387 Pipeline Logic Models 387 Variations of Outcomes Chain Logic Models 396 Technology for Representing Program Theory 399 Summary 414 Exercise 414 Part Five Using Program Theory for Monitoring and Evaluation Chapter 14: Developing a Monitoring and Evaluation Plan 417 Using Program Theory for Performance Monitoring 418 Making Choices About What to Measure Within the Program Theory 425 Including Comparisons as Part of the Performance Information System 434 Using Program Theory to Plan an Evaluation 438 Considerations When Using Program Theory to Design Evaluations of Complicated and Complex Programs 455 Summary 466 Exercises 467 Chapter 15: Causal Inference 469 The Need to Be Scientific and Pragmatic 469 A Framework for Causal Analysis Using Program Theory 473 Congruence 474 Counterfactual Comparisons 488 Critical Review 495 Summary 499 Exercises 499 Chapter 16: Synthesis and Reporting 501 Synthesis and Reporting for a Single Evaluation 501 Synthesis and Reporting Across Evaluations 508 Summary 516 Exercises 516 New Frontiers for Program Theory 517 References 519 Index 537