The meltdown in the credit markets, the decline in housing prices, and the turmoil in the stock market has rocked the world of the everyday investor. The idea that home ownership and the stock market are the best long-term investments suddenly has been thrown into question. Bearish investment experts are touting historical research that suggests both real estate values and the stock market could stagnate for years to come, thus imperiling the retirement planning of millions of Americans. In The Bull Inside the Bear, investment manager and former Federal Reserve economist Rob Stein argues that the economy is entering uncharted water and investors need to actively manager their portfolios to take advantage of new opportunities and avoid risky sectors. No longer can investors simply rely on a "buy and hold" strategy. The key will be to stay nimble and be ready to increase stock holdings if the economy recovers strongly and be ready to substantially reduce stock holdings if the current problems continue to weigh down economic performance. Moreover, investors must be open to weighting their portfolios in favor of hot sectors depending on economic and financial market performance. Stein argues that it will take several years for the credit markets to stabilize following the crash of the Greenspan-driven credit expansion, which will make investing far more volatile and unpredictable than previously. But by adroitly moving in and out of exchange-traded funds, individual investors will be able to prosper in this new and challenging investment environment.
Table of Contents:
Foreword. Preface.
Acknowledgments.
Part I: The Credit Market Meltdown.
Chapter 1 How Has the World Changed?
The Next Bull and Bear.
A Valuable History Lesson.
The Four Stages of a Recurring Cycle.
Always a Bull Inside the Bear.
The Role of the Fed.
The World As We Know It.
Today’s World and Money Supply.
Conclusion: A Changing, Consistent World.
Chapter 2 Bubbles, Bursts, and Blips: A View of the Past.
The 1970s: The Gold Bubble Inflates.
The 1980s: Two Dips and a Blip.
The 1980s in Perspective.
The 1990s: An Expansion Here, a Bubble There.
The 2000s and the Liquidity Bubble.
Looking Ahead.
The Bull Inside the Bear: The Next Bubble to Burst—and Bull to Emerge.
Chapter 3 Inflation: The Factor That Is Always with Us.
Inflation to the Rescue.
Causes of Inflation.
The Wage-Inflation Equation.
Wage Pressures and Inflation.
Oil Prices: The Ouch That Stings.
Inflation Is Always an Issue.
The 1970s: Whipping Double-Digit Inflation.
The Greenspan Years.
Bernanke Takes Over.
The Bull Inside the Bear: Your Inflation Opportunities.
Stay Alert and Nimble.
Part II: What Does It All Mean for Me?
Chapter 4 The Credit Cycle.
An Overview of the Housing Cycle.
The Four Phases of the Credit Cycle.
The Pivotal Moment: A Nod to Minsky.
Banking 101.
Now the Deleveraging Begins.
Credit Cycle Impact.
Bull Inside the Bear: It’s Not the End of the World.
Chapter 5 The Housing Bubble: From Watch to Warning.
Nearly 70 Percent Home Ownership in the United States.
Nesting Instinct.
The Weather Watch.
A Loan for Everyone.
From Watch to Warning.
Slice-and-Dice Debt Packages.
One Last Blast to Inflate the Bubble.
A Violent Storm: The Bursting of the Bubble.
The Impact on U.S. Economic Growth.
The Bull Inside the Bear: Lessons from a Housing Bubble.
Chapter 6 The Fed as FEMA.
The Fed to the Rescue.
A Short History of the Fed.
The Fed Steps In.
Greenspan and the Stock Market.
Greenspan and Liquidity.
Liquidity Flows and Flows.
Bailing out Bear Stearns.
The Hidden Cost of Fed as FEMA.
The Bull Inside the Bear: The Fed, Intervention, and You.
Chapter 7 Your Next Opportunity.
Take Heart—Or at Least Take Heed.
Understanding Current Events.
Where’s the Bull?
Beware of Bonds: The Next Bubble to Burst.
The Bull Inside the Bear: Reverting to the Mean.
Let’s Talk Game Plan.
Doubling the Dow.
Part III: Investment Lessons to Live By.
Chapter 8 ETFs: The Perfect Investment.
An Investment for Uncertain Times.
Using ETFs.
ETF Innovation.
Pure Investment, No Ego.
ETFs for Retirement Plans.
Thinking Like an Economist.
Going Short by Going Long.
Choosing Sectors.
On the Radar for 2009.
The Bull Inside the Bear: See the Forest, Focus on the Trees.
Chapter 9 Nimble and Aware: Focusing on the Big Picture.
The Economy is Not the Stock Market.
A Snapshot of the Economy.
GDP: Measuring Economic Health.
Employment.
Investment Money Flows and Stock Price Momentum.
No Need to be a Passive Investor.
Right Sector, Wrong Stock.
Taking Profits.
The Bull Inside the Bear: Diversification Using ETFs.
Chapter 10 Thoughts on Life—and Investing.
Worry About the Right Things.
The Credit-Based Economy.
Don’t Fight the Cycles.
Be Discerning.
The Economy and Politics.
The Blame Game.
The Bull Inside the Bear—Is You.
Notes.
About the Author.
Index.
About the Author :
Robert Stein is an economist, portfolio manager, and Senior Partner of Astor Asset Management, LLC, which uses a macroeconomic model to make investment decisions. Stein is also managing partner of ETFPort.com, the Web's premier location to find and research exchange-traded funds. He writes frequently about the markets, and has been featured in the Wall Street Journal, BusinessWeek, the New York Times, and USA Today, and can be seen on CNN, CNBC, Fox News, Bloomberg Television, and ABC News.
